Fresh Trends 2009
The Packer's annual study of produce consumption trends by commodity.
Overview
The stock market tanked, gas prices soared, the number of consumers seeking food stamps skyrocketed. There’s no question that consumers have taken a good, hard look at their food budgets this year. For those in the produce industry, the continued trend toward healthful eating provides some promise. But even the most casual shoppers are more savvy now than they were a year ago, and for most consumers going to the store means counting every nickel and dime.
Consumers Watch Their Wallets
As a recession settled over our nation, consumers clearly felt their wallets being pinched when it came to food purchases. Nearly three-quarters of consumers surveyed for Fresh Trends 2009 said their grocery bill was higher this year than the previous year. Of those who saw their supermarket bills climb, 42% estimated that they paid 11% to 20% more for food this year; one-quarter said the increase was more like 21% to 30%.
The overwhelming majority of shoppers (84%) understood that food bills increased because the cost of food went up. Several respondents listed increased transportation costs as the primary reason for the increase in their food bill.
Shoppers also said those price hikes tie directly to America’s economic crisis. Three-quarters of those surveyed blame the current economic situation for the rising costs on their receipts.
A smaller group of shoppers attributed the increase in their grocery bill to better eating habits and the fact that healthier choices can cost more.
Most consumers surveyed said they typically bought produce at their local supermarket. However, this year consumers appear to have broadened their range of shopping outlets in response to rising prices.
When asked where they typically bought fresh produce in the past 12 months, some shoppers listed their primary shopping location as the dollar store or a value merchant like Aldi. More consumers also recounted shopping at superstores. Wal-Mart Supercenters were specifically mentioned by several respondents this year. Eight percent of shoppers said they typically shopped at a farmers market, while another 6% shopped at a specialty supermarket like Whole Foods.
The rising cost of food has also caused consumers to seriously reconsider their choices when it comes to eating out. Four surveys ago in Fresh Trends 2006, 46% of consumers said they were eating out more than they did in the previous fi ve years. In Fresh Trends 2009, 70% of respondents said they ate at home more often than they ate out in the past year, in fact, only 5% of consumers said they were eating at restaurants more often than they did a year ago.
Despite the rising costs, consumers are still very interested in fresh fruits and vegetables. One-third of respondents said they bought more fresh produce this year than they did a year ago. Forty-two percent of shoppers said their produce purchasing habits remained the same during the year.
One-third of shoppers said they bought more whole produce than fresh-cut in the past 12 months – a trend also tied to economic conditions since fresh-cut product is often more expensive than bulk items. Half of consumers surveyed said their ratio of fresh-cut produce to whole commodities remained constant.
Methodology
Since 1983, THE PACKER has sponsored 26 major consumer studies to track trends in the purchases and consumption of fresh produce. These studies have documented the fluctuation in purchases of specific fruits and vegetables as well as changing attitudes toward various produce industry issues. Fresh Trends represents the only ongoing consumer research study that is available to the entire industry.
This year, consumers were surveyed via an online study fielded Nov. 4-6, 2008. Surveys took an average of 11 minutes to complete. E-mail invitations with a hyperlink to the survey were sent to 30,000 U.S. households who are members of a nationwide consumer panel. The outgoing sample was balanced to match the U.S. population in terms of age, region, household size and population density. Completed surveys were received from 1,169 households, for a completion rate of 86%.
Representatives from THE PACKER and Vance Research Services (VRS) jointly designed the survey. VRS is the research division of Vance Publishing Corp., publisher of THE PACKER. OTX, a leading provider of online-based research, supplied the sample for the survey using its nationwide network of partners with access to more than 750,000 respondents in an average month. Vision Critical, a panel software firm based in Canada, deployed the survey to the sample. Results include households that purchased at least one of the more than 50 fresh fruits or vegetables in the past 12 months.
Any survey sample is subject to some degree of error. One type of error results from the fact that only selected individuals are surveyed, rather than the entire population. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level for the Fresh Trends 2009 survey is +/- 1.14%. This means the numbers are within 1.14% of what is true for the entire population. For example, if something is true of 85% of consumers surveyed, you can be 95% sure that it’s true between 83.86% and 86.14% of all produce users.
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