The United Kingdom-base research group said that inflation-adjusted U.S. retail fruit sales — with fresh fruit accounting or 84% of the category — will rise from $34.6 billion in 2013 to $36.1 billion by 2018. That represents annual growth of from zero to 1.1% during those years, according to Mintel’s report. Fruit sales growth from 2008 to 2013 on inflation-adjusted prices was 3%, and Mintel predicts a 4% gain in inflation-adjusted sales during the next five years.
U.S. retail vegetable sales — dominated by a 75% market share for fresh vegetables and fresh-cut vegetables — will remain flat, according to the report. Inflation-adjusted vegetable retail sales are predicted to remain basically unchanged— from $68.2 billion in 2013 to $68.3 billion in 2018. Inflation adjusted prices for vegetables showed vegetables sales grew only 4% from 2008 to 2013, and Mintel forecasts no significant sales growth for the category from 2013 to 2018.
While the report looks at sales dollars, Elizabeth Pivonka, president and chief executive officer of the Hockessin, Del.-based Produce for Better Health Foundation, said PBH research also indicates that volume of fresh produce sold at retail has been flat in recent reporting periods.
“Generally what we are seeing is that (consumption) is relatively flat across the country and people still need to eat twice of what they are currently eating,” she said.
Supply challenges could work against attempts to increase consumption, she said.
Pivonka said a grower recently told her that widespread labor shortages may trim the fresh produce acreage in the spring of 2014, which could reduce supplies and raise prices.
She said there are some recent upward shifts in fruit and vegetable consumption for children between two and 12 years old, particularly for children ages two to six years old. In addition, Pivonka said PBH research indicates consumption growth in the 18- to 35-year- old demographic. Teens and the elderly, on the other hand, will eat fewer fruits and vegetables, Pivonka said.
Fruit on the rise
Another report, on fruit consumption, is encouraging, Pivonka said.
The Oct. 31 report from research firm The NPD Group says that fruit has passed milk, vegetables and carbonated soft drinks over the last decade and now ranks number two on the list of top ten foods Americans eat.