“Despite massive investments of money, effort, and ingenuity, our ability to predict human affairs is impressive only in its mediocrity. With metronomic regularity, what is expected does not come to pass, while what isn’t, does.”
That passage comes from an article called “What’s wrong with expert predictions: Our aversion to acknowledging our ignorance” by Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock.
I agree that we, in our professional and personal lives, cannot precisely predict what our future holds, notwithstanding the time we spend pondering it.
Yet I trust industry experts and “our” collective wisdom in assigning probability to some of the biggest trends in the next few years. I posed a question to the LinkedIn Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group that asked
So far, the leading vote getter – and my own selection – is “food safety regulations” with 36% of the vote.
Here are some excerpts of comments:
I actually think consolidation will become the paradigm due in no small part to increasingly costly food safety regulations. We will see much the same dynamic in the trucking industry, with big players much more structurally and financially able to absorb the costs than the small owner-operators - and the big trucking companies will absorb all the smaller players. Likewise for Big Farm vs. Farmer Brown.
Andrew weighs inc:
I would like to have seen the inclusion of resource constraints as a voting option. While labor stress does fit in to that category, I believe rising energy costs and water availability are being overlooked as factors that will shape product availability and costs over the next five years. I recently wrote a piece for a leading produce journal specifically on the risks associated with increased water demands from growing urban centers and industry, and how this is likely to impact key growing areas in California, Arizona and Colorado. If anyone would like a copy of the article, I would be happy to supply such.
Standing five years out, it would seem all of the multiple choice options will be in play to be the top choice. And, of course, the options that aren’t listed may be even more likely.