“Despite massive investments of money, effort, and ingenuity, our ability to predict human affairs is impressive only in its mediocrity. With metronomic regularity, what is expected does not come to pass, while what isn’t, does.”
That passage comes from an article called “What’s wrong with expert predictions: Our aversion to acknowledging our ignorance” by Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock.
I agree that we, in our professional and personal lives, cannot precisely predict what our future holds, notwithstanding the time we spend pondering it.
Yet I trust industry experts and “our” collective wisdom in assigning probability to some of the biggest trends in the next few years. I posed a question to the LinkedIn Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group that asked
So far, the leading vote getter – and my own selection – is “food safety regulations” with 36% of the vote.