Psa has hit hardest around Te Puke in the Bay of Plenty where 41 percent of the total planted area is located. At this stage, just over a quarter of kiwifruit orchards in New Zealand are known to have the bacterium present.
Overall, up to 20 percent of Gold kiwifruit in Te Puke could still be harvested, and up to 80 percent in the wider Bay of Plenty. This would yield an export volume of around 16 million trays of Gold kiwifruit.
Psa has been slower to affect Green kiwifruit orchards, but orchard infection numbers have ramped up during the 2011 spring. The impact of Psa on green orchards in the medium term remains uncertain.
Overall, export volumes are expected to fall 21 percent to 89 million trays, and export returns are expected to fall 18 percent to $862 million, for the year ending 31 March 2013.
TK: Drawing from New Zealand MAF report, the USDA FAS released an extensive report about the New Zealand kiwifruit outlook, particularly the dark news about gold kiwifruit:
This is a direct result of the production problems associated with the Psa(v) outbreak which will see up to 50% of the older Gold Kiwifruit variety (Hort16a) perish after contracting the disease in the 2010/2011 growing season. Total Production of kiwifruit in 2012 is likely to be down 21% and is estimated at 343,300 tons.