The USDA predicts that U.S. citrus output will decline over the next decade. ( USDA )

U.S. citrus output will decline over the next decade, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture projections.

Citrus production is projected to decline slowly over the ten-year projection period, according to the USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2028.
U.S. citrus production will decline from 16.07 billion pounds in 2019 to 14.7 billion pounds in 2028, the agency said.

“The expected declines stem from the loss of bearing acreage in Florida and the continued spread of citrus greening, a citrus disease spread by insects for which no cure currently exists and which has the potential to threaten the entire citrus industry,” the report said. “Declines in citrus production are projected to be offset by increases in noncitrus production.”

Meanwhile, the USDA said expanding acreage of tree nuts in response to rising demand will boost production and tree nut output will continue to grow over the next ten years.

Big picture

U.S. fruit, nut and vegetable production farm value is projected to grow 2.7% annually for the next decade.

The USDA said estimated total farm value of fruits, nuts, and vegetables will reach $68.2 billion by 2028, up from $53.9 billion in 2019. 

According to the report, fruits contribute roughly 43% of the total value, tree nuts account for 18%, and vegetables nearly 40%.

Measured by farm weight, the USDA said production of fruit and tree nuts, and vegetables, are projected to rise at an annual growth rate of 0.52% and 0.54% per year, respectively.

The USDA said: 

  • Overall fruit and tree nut production is expected to reach roughly 63 billion pounds in 2028;
  • The value of farm production of fruit and tree nuts is projected to grow at roughly 2.7% annually, with tree nuts expected to grow 3% per year, citrus at just under 3%, and noncitrus at 2.5% per year;
  • Over the next 10 years, the shares of vegetable production for fresh use and processing are expected to remain at current levels, according to the USDA;
  • Fresh use is expected to account for roughly 28% of total vegetable production while processed vegetables are projected to make up about 30% of total production;
  • U.S. fresh vegetable production is projected at 39.5 billion pounds in 2019, and is predicted to rise slightly to 39.8 billion pounds in 2028;
  • U.S. noncitrus fruit production will grow from 37.6 billion pounds in 2019 to 40.3 billion pounds in 2028;
  • U.S. tree nut production will rise from 6.8 billion pounds in 2019 to 8.3 billion pounds in 2028; and
  • U.S. potato production will grow from 46.1 billion in 2019 to 47.4 billion pounds in 2028.