Fresh produce retail sales in April remain well above 2019 baseline

Retail fresh produce sales totaled $5.4 billion in April, down 3.6% from 2020 but up 10.3% from 2019.

Fresh fruit sales were up 1.5% and fresh vegetable sales were down 8.8%, according to IRI. Vegetables faced a higher bar than fruit in the year-over-year comparison for April given the huge sales increases for potatoes, onions and other cooking vegetables in the early days of the COVID-19 crisis.

“We know the year-over-year picture will likely be off for a few months, but it is very encouraging to see that demand is holding strong versus the pre-pandemic normal,” Joe Watson, vice president of membership and engagement for the Produce Marketing Association, said in a news release. “All indicators point to consumers moving around more, and that could mean fewer meals consumed at home. Keeping an eye on the demand versus 2019 will help us understand the at-home versus out-of-home balance, which is imperative for demand forecasting.”

Many consumers are more comfortable leaving their homes now that vaccines are widely available.

“Concern about COVID-19 dropped month over month, and 66% of shoppers felt relaxed during their last in-store trip, up 13 points since January,” IRI fresh team lead Jonna Parker said in the release. “Importantly, consumers who have been vaccinated are more likely to do all shopping in-store and are the ones driving the more relaxed in-store mindset. This points to potentially ongoing shifts back to pre-pandemic behaviors as more people get vaccinated.

“While online grocery shopping certainly remains elevated from the pre-pandemic levels, we saw an increase in in-store shopping along with more time spent shopping in April,” Parker said. “Reflecting on their last grocery trip, 85% of consumers shopped in-store, up a few points versus the last three months. Additionally, 68% now say they will do all of their grocery shopping in-store, up four points versus last month.”

All in all, the story for fresh produce at retail through the first third of 2021 has been a positive one.

“Rolling up the January through March 2021 results shows a strong start of the year,” Watson said in the release. “While year-on-year comparisons for April makes it looks like consumption has dropped drastically, reality is that demand for fruit and vegetables remains robust. The easiest way to look at performance is to compare April 2021 dollars and pounds to those sold in April 2019 — showing double-digit increases for both dollars and pounds.”

Consumers are expected to continue to be out and about more in the coming months, as mobility indicators like TSA checkpoint numbers, dining out and gasoline sales tick up. Potential results of this include greater foodservice engagement, increased demand for convenience items, and different approaches to breakfast and lunch, 210 Analytics principal Anne-Marie Roerink said in the release.