Big mango volumes keep prices low

A late surge of product from Mexico and an early start in Ecuador should keep mango supplies abundant into fall.

An unexpected surge of supply from northern Mexico at the end of the season complicated the beginning of the Brazilian mango deal, said Sabine Henry, tropical manager for Central American Produce Inc., Pompano Beach, Fla.

"It's a different year," she said Sept. 13. "No one was expecting Mexico to have so much fruit."

Mexico is expected to ship about 74 million boxes of mangoes this year, up from 64 million boxes last year, said Manuel Michel, executive director of the Orlando, Fla.-based National Mango Board.

Peak Brazilian volumes were arriving in September, Henry said, but with an abundance of Mexican fruit still in the market, most Brazilian fruit was staying in the eastern half of the country.
"Brazil totally lost the West Coast market to Mexico," she said. "They're find of fighting each other."

It was also creating something of a two-tiered market, but even with a price gap between Mexican and Brazilian fruit, Brazilian prices were still lower than last year, Henry said.

On Sept. 13, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported prices of $5.50-6 for one-layer flats of tommy atkins 6-8s from Brazil, down from $9.50-11 last year at the same time.

One-layer cartons of keitts 4-7s from Mexico were $3. Prices last year at the same time weren't available because of insufficient supplies.

"Brazil started low, and I don't know if they're going to recover," Henry said. "Brazil's going to have a tough year."

Mullica Hill, N.J.-based Amazon Produce Network reported an oversupply of fruit in mid-September, even though movement is up on a same-account basis from last year, said Greg Golden, partner and sales manager.

The company is seeing record late-season volumes out of Mexico this year, and record crops are also possible from Brazil, Ecuador and Peru, Golden said.

"Demand has been generally strong but is not quite keeping up with the supply," he said. Recent history or data analysis of mango supplies the past few years would lead retailers to expect high prices and a supply gap in the month of September and early October, leading them not to promote. That is just not the case this year."

In addition to the glut, appearance issues were hurting demand for late-season Mexican fruit, Henry said. Eating quality was excellent, however, Golden said, and sizes big, with late keitts peaking on 5s.

Brazilian fruit, by contrast, was high quality, with sizes peaking on 8s and 9s for Central American the week of Sept. 12, Henry and Golden said.

Mexican volumes should start to finally wind down late the week of Sept. 19 or the week of Sept. 26, Henry said. But with Ecuador entering the U.S. market ahead of schedule, in early October, there won't likely be a window for Brazil to make up much ground.

The combination of Brazil peaking, Mexico going late and Ecuador coming early will keep marketers on their toes, Golden said.

"The supplies are coming.

It's up to the industry to compete for demand and retailer shelf space with pricing, communication and commitment to promotions."

Brazilian volumes will likely peak until about the second week of October, Henry said.

Brazil is expected to ship about 8 million boxes this year, similar to last year, Michel said. Ecuador should produce about 10.8 million boxes, up slightly from last year, he said.

Peru, set to begin in November, could be up about 10% from last year's 9.3 million boxes, he said.