USDA projects hot growth in produce imports over next decade
Projections through 2030 for U.S. fruit and vegetable production and trade call for slight increases in domestic vegetable and fruit output but stronger increases in fresh produce imports.
Called “Agricultural Projections to 2030” the U.S. Department of Agriculture report says the growth in U.S. agricultural imports will be fueled by fresh produce.
U.S. imports of horticultural products are projected to grow by 5% per year over the next decade, the USDA said, largely driven by fresh fruits and vegetables.
The USDA said U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable exports will grow from $7.1 billion in 2019 to $9.6 billion by 2030, a gain of 35% over 11 years.
By contrast, the USDA said U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable imports will jump from $22.9 billion in 2019 to $36.6 billion in 2030, an increase in value of 60% over the 11-year span.
Economic outlook
The USDA projects the U.S. and world economy will recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 and beyond, but the report said there is still a large degree of uncertainty.
“While cyclical declines in global economic activity are not uncommon, the scope and degree of the pandemic’s impact is unprecedented in recent history,” the report said. “The path to control of the pandemic and economic recovery cannot be known with certainty. Although the assumptions underlying the projections call for widespread economic recovery beginning in 2021, the pace may vary across countries based on the success of pandemic control measures, as well as policies that support business recovery.”
U.S. real gross domestic product is forecast to decline 5.8% in 2020 with a recovery to 4% growth in 2021. During the USDA forecast period of 2021-2030, the U.S. post-pandemic real GDP growth is projected at 2.4% annually, the report said.
Highlights from the USDA’s long-term projections are:
- Combined production of fruit, tree nuts, vegetable, and pulses will grow slightly over the next decade, reaching 189 billion pounds by 2030, up from 186 billion pounds in 2020;
- By 2030, the USDA said fruit will contribute nearly 27% of total domestic output, tree nuts approximately 4.5% and vegetable and pulse crops roughly 68.5%;
- Vegetable and pulse crop production will grow “only slightly” to 2030. The USDA said there is rapid growth of the protected culture sub-sector (mostly greenhouses and urban vertical farms) which the agency said is slowly replacing field-grown production for several major fresh vegetables;
- In recent years the USDA said there has been a rapid rise of import volume across many fresh and processed vegetables, and the USDA said their new projection assumes imports continue to rise;
- Buoyed in-part by increasing production of higher-priced organic vegetables, the USDA forecast the value of fresh-market vegetable production will rise by one-third between 2018-20 and 2028-30;
- The value of production for fresh market vegetables will account for about 60% of all vegetable and pulse receipts by 2030, up from an estimated 57% in 2020;
- Within the lettuce sub-sector, the USDA said growth is projected in romaine and leaf production, while iceberg output will continue its decline;
- Production of sweet potatoes will continue to trend upward based primarily on rising exports, the USDA said;
- Production of potatoes will rise slightly over the next 10 years as both domestic and foreign demand remains sluggish, the USDA said. A downward trend in acres harvested will be more than offset by a gain in yields;
- U.S. fruit and tree nut production (pounds) will grow 0.35% annually throughout the projection period, reaching roughly 59 billion pounds by 2030, the USDA said. Citrus output will decline 0.65% annually, while fruit production will grow due to gains in non-citrus production; and
- The farm value of fruit and tree nuts will grow 2.7% annually over the next ten years, with tree nuts growing 3%, citrus at 2.9% and non-citrus at 2.5%.
