Apple and oranges prices fuel retail fresh produce inflation

An increase in apple and orange prices spurred retail fresh produce inflation in February, new government statistics show.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Price Outlook report said fresh fruit prices increased 1.3% from January to February 2021, pushing fresh fruit prices 5.4% higher than in February 2020. 

The increases, the USDA said, were largely driven by the rise in apple prices of 2.7% from January to February and the rise in citrus prices of 1%. 

For all of 2021, fresh fruits are now predicted to increase between 1% and 2%.

Of all the food-at-home categories tracked by the USDA, the fresh fruits category has had the largest relative price increase (2.8%) and the beef and veal category the largest relative price decrease (0.8%) so far this year.

Producer prices for apples have increased due to port issues resulting from COVID-19, the USDA said.

In addition, the USDA said recent winter weather storms have reduced citrus production, leading to price increases. 

Farm-level fruit prices are now predicted to increase between 1.5% and 4.5% in 2021, the USDA said, while farm-level vegetable prices are now predicted to range from unchanged to 3% down compared with 2020.

Retail and restaurants

The USDA said food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) retail inflation increased 0.1% in February 2021 and was 3.7% higher than February 2020. Meanwhile, the food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) retail inflation increased 0.2% from January 2021 to February 2021 and was 3.5% higher than February 2020.

In 2021, food-at-home prices are forecast to increase between 1% and 2%, and food-away-from-home prices are expected to increase between 2% and 3%.