Northwest cherry growers peg 2021 crop at 23.8 million cartons, up 20% from last year

The first estimate from Northwest Cherries pegs the 2021 crop at 23.79 million cartons, up 20% from 19.83 million cartons in 2020 and up 2% from 2019.

Harvest is expected to begin June 1, only a day or so behind a year ago.

The crop estimate could change in the weeks ahead, according to a news release. 

“Spring was late this year, and while it’s progressing quickly, not all of our orchards are far enough along to determine how much of their crop will remain on the tree,” Northwest Cherries said in the release.

According to the release, highlights of the crop are:

• Harvest will begin in the last few days of May at earliest sites;
• As more orchards and regions come online during the first two weeks of June, the volume may accumulate more slowly due to weather-impacted orchards;
• While volume may accumulate more slowly, as the end of June approaches Northwest Cherries expects shipping volumes to exceed last year;
• Supplies for late June and Fourth of July promotions look very promising;
• July will be a strong month all the way through; and 
• August will have opportunity for at least one ad this season with projected volume trickling out through the end of the month.

Disease pressure

For several years, the release said growers across the Northwest have been feeling the effects of a group of pathogens collectively called little cherry disease (LCD). The group of pathogens results in small, under-developed and bitter fruit, according to the release.

The industry’s orchard practices and packing technology have ensured that none of the small and bitter fruit is shipped for consumers, the release said.

“The high quality of Northwest cherries is a standard throughout the world, and we are committed to maintaining that bar,” Northwest Cherries said in the release. 

“Even though LCD has been an orchard issue for several years, our shipped crop 5-year average is 80% 10.5 row and larger, which is an increase over the 10-year and 15-year averages,” the group said in the release.

Intervention measures have reduced the Northwest cherry crop potential volume by 2.5 to 3 million boxes for the coming season, according to the release.

This season, Northwest Cherries will execute the largest marketing campaign in the organization’s history, according to the release, and it is entirely focused on promoting the health benefits of sweet cherries.

Marketing points to remember for this year, according to the release, are:

• Multiple studies show single-bag cherry sales are over 70% impulse purchases;
• Communicating their availability is key to capturing the first sale and the last;
• 42% of cherry buyers bought at least some cherries online in 2020;
• Online shoppers were two times more likely to be a weekly cherry buyer;
• Online shoppers were four times more likely to buy multiple bags of cherries; and
• Over 59% of surveyed cherry buyers were influenced by the health benefits of cherries when they made their decision to purchase last year.