Drought Conditions Worsen in High Plains, West

Lots of red. That’s the prevailing color on the U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, for parts of the High Plains, particularly North Dakota, and in states throughout the Southwest and West.

In the High Plains, two diverse weather patterns are in play, according to Monitor authors, Adam Hartman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Denise Gutzmer, National Drought Mitigation Center.

The U.S. Drought monitor released Thursday shows while there were slight improvements, dryness covers more than 40% of the U.S., which is historic. 

"The drought monitor has been around for more than two decades, and we have only seen four springs where we've seen more than 40% drought coverage in the lower 48 states," says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist and an author of the monitor. "For the record, those years were 2000, 2003, and then in the wake of the big 2012, drought with the spring of 2013."

2021 is among those years, with nearly 60% of the U.S. seeing drought, with Rippey calling the Southwest and West "ground zero" for drought this year. 

Precipitation this past week did help soil moisture conditions in Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska, reducing drought in some areas, according to the weekly Monitor. However, farmers saw rain extremes in some cases, with precipitation of 3” or more.

The Dakotas have increasingly dire conditions, however. Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation this past week warranted a further downgrade in soil conditions in the Dakotas. Drought expanded in South Dakota, as the state continues to fall behind during what usually is a climatologically wetter time of year. There are also continued reports of poor water quality in livestock water sources in northwestern parts of the state.

In North Dakota, dry, windy conditions continued what’s been an ongoing pattern throughout spring and that is predicted to continue.

“Many farmers have been forced to plant in dry soils this year, but erosion and lack of rainfall have resulted in poor and/or a lack of germination,” writes the authors. “Fire also continues to remain a high risk across North Dakota, and most counties have imposed burn restrictions. Since the beginning of the year, there have been more than 1,000 fires reported across the state, with over 100,000 acres burned.”

Sixty percent of the U.S. cow herd is now in some level of drought or dryness, because pastures aren’t greening up for grazing. That's forcing cows to the processor in numbers not seen in a decade, according to Greg Henderson, editor of Drovers.

"The (number for) March of this year was up 10% over last year already, and April was up 4% to 5% over last year," says Henderson. 2020 beef cow slaughter was up 7%, which was the highest beef cow slaughter since 2010.

Water levels across the West are below normal for this time of year. Above-normal temperatures over much of the West over the past 60 days has resulted in rapid snowmelt and, due to dry topsoil, much of the melt water has not made it into the rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.

In California, the water level in Lake Tahoe is 2.5 feet lower than this time last year. There are increasing reports of reduced pasture forage, livestock requiring supplemental feed and/or being sold off, and some reports of livestock mortality. Additionally, stock ponds are running dry, and farmers have been forced to haul water in some locations.

Targeted degradations were also made in portions of Idaho as a result of deteriorating soil moisture conditions.

In the week ahead, look for the Southern and Central Plains, much of the Corn Belt, and northern tier states to remain wet. Temperatures are also forecast to remain below-normal for much of the period across the Northern tier.

“High pressure is expected to dominate over the eastern U.S., coinciding with little to no rainfall and above-normal temperatures,” the authors report.

The Southwest and Coastal California are also likely to remain dry. However, temperatures are favored to remain below-normal, moderating to near-normal as the week progresses toward Tuesday, May 25.

Below-normal precipitation is expected in the Southeast U.S. and along the East Coast, with enhanced probabilities in the deep South and Florida, the authors report. Below-normal precipitation is also expected for the Central Pacific Coast, Great Basin, and Eastern Rockies to the High Plains.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report is available here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/