Industry sets expectations for Idaho, U.S. potato crops

 Blair Richardson, president and CEO of Potatoes USA, (left) visits on Sept. 3 with Mark Klompien, president and CEO of the United Potato Growers of America at the Idaho Grower Shippers Association 93rd annual convention.
Blair Richardson, president and CEO of Potatoes USA, (left) visits on Sept. 3 with Mark Klompien, president and CEO of the United Potato Growers of America at the Idaho Grower Shippers Association 93rd annual convention.
(The Packer)

SUN VALLEY, IDAHO — The transition from old crop to new crop potatoes is taking place right now, and two potato industry observers report that expected reduced fresh shipments during the 2021-22 marketing year should provide a firm market.

Acreage is expected to be up slightly, but yields will be down for Idaho growers this year, said Mark Klompien, president and CEO of the United Potato Growers of America. Along with Klompien, Rick Shawver, CEO of the United Potato Growers of Idaho,  spoke to attendees of the Idaho Grower Shippers Association 93rd annual convention on Sept. 1 about the Idaho and U.S. potato crop outlook.

Setting the stage

Klompien said the group’s shipping forecast for the U.S. fresh potato crop is 88 million cwt., 1.9 million cwt. less than the 2020-21 crop.
Idaho is expected to ship about 32 million cwt.  of russets, about 1.8 million cwt. down from a year ago and the lowest shipment total in about six years.

Idaho acreage is estimated at 315,000 acres, up 6% from 296,000 a year ago.

However, 2021 yield is projected at 430 cwt. per acre, down 5% from 455 cwt. last year. Total Idaho production is anticipated at 135.45 million cwt., up from 134.5 million cwt. a year ago. 

The fresh market is expected to account for 24.7% of the Idaho crop, compared with 27.1% for the fresh market in the 2020-21 season.
Shawver said the tuber count for the 2021 Idaho crop is down compared with last year and perhaps the second-lowest average tuber count in the past five years. The amount of smoke from western fires is concerning, he said, but the effect of the smoke on crop output is unknown. Further revisions to fresh shipment estimates will be made as harvest continues, he said.

The projected lower yields in Idaho of 430 cwt. per acre, down from 455 cwt. per acre last year, could be conservative, he said. 

“We should expect some relatively good pricing,” he said.

For other states, the United Potato Growers of America estimated:

  • Colorado’s San Luis Valley is expected ship about 13.1 million cwt.,  down 518,000 cwt. from a year ago; 
  • Wisconsin fresh output is projected at 6.58 million cwt., up 489,000 cwt. from the 2020 crop;
  • Fresh potato shipments from Washington’s Columbia Basin are estimated at 6.63 million  cwt., down from 1.099 million cwt. a year ago. Hot weather has taken a toll on potato yields in Washington, but part of the drop in fresh shipments is tied to a cannibalization of fresh acres over into processing acres. That is happening in both Washington and Idaho, he said.
  • California’s Kern County production is forecast at 3.41 million cwt.,  up 262,000 cwt. from a year ago.
  • The Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota will produce fresh shipments of 3.5 million cwt., up 641,000 cwt. from a year ago. Red potato acreage will be down 2% to 4% while yellow potato acreage is up 9% to 10%. With yellow potato varieties typically yielding better than red potatoes, growers will see increased output despite drought conditions, Klompien said.

Pandemic rewind

Klompien said the past 18 months presented unusual circumstances for the industry. The 2019-20 marketing year was influenced by the hard freeze in Idaho on Oct. 8, 2019, when a fair amount of potatoes were still in the ground.

The pandemic, which started mid-March 2020, slowed down sales and pulled down grower prices during a year when supplies were tight, and prices were on the high side.

For the 2020-21 season, Klompien said that fresh potato pricing seems to be finding stable footing this fall.

“We love to see the balance in the fresh potato market, where sales and buying are on that equilibrium, and that’s what we look for in generating a fair price, a positive price to growers for their long-term survival and ongoing potato industry participation,” he said.
 

 

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