South African deciduous output up, but warning signs appear

South Africa is set for record apple, pear and table grape production in marketing year 2021-2022, according to a new USDA report. But the report says growers and exporters also face some dark clouds.

“Favorable weather conditions, new areas under production and higher yielding cultivars [are] driving the growth in production,” the report said.

“However, rising shipping costs, an upsurge in input costs, local port inefficiencies and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on established trading patterns, are challenging South Africa’s exports of pome fruit and table grapes.”

The report said profitability of the industry is under pressure, which may serve to limit future investments.

South Africa apple growing area in 2021-2022 is estimated near 63,000 acres, about 1% above the previous year. Acreage is expected stable in coming years, the report said.

“Accelerating farming input costs and higher shipping rates are diminishing the profitability of apple producers which will limit future investments in the industry,” the report said. Harvest for South African apples typically begins at the end of January and runs through to June. The USDA predicts South African apple production at 1.2 million metric tons, beating the previous record of 1.1 million metric tons in 2020-2021 by 1%.

 South African apple exports are expected to reach 620,000 metric tons in 2021-2022, up 6% compared with the previous year.

South African pear production area has increased steadily over the past decade with an average growth rate of around 1% per year, to an estimated 32,100 acres in 2021-2022. 

Like apple growers, pear growers are facing higher input costs and shipping rates, which could limit future growth in production. 

The report said pear production in South Africa could grow by 7% in marketing year 2021-2022 to reach a record level of 510,000 metric tons. South African pear exports are forecast at 260,000 metric tons in marketing year 2021-2022, up 5% from the previous year.

South African table grape area is projected at 50,600 acres this season, about even with last year. The availability of irrigation water is a limiting factor to the area planted to table grapes in South Africa, the report said, in addition to higher farming input costs, electric supply disruptions, ineffective port operation and worsening roads.

Production of South African table grapes is forecast to grow by 4% percent to a record 380,000 metric tons in marketing year 2021-2022, up from 364,000 metric tons last season. The USDA said South Africa’s exports of table grapes in marketing year 2021-2022 are expected to stay flat at about 320,000 metric tons, held back by rising shipping costs, recent COVID-19 related restrictions in China and other factors.