Spike in import values causes USDA to up import forecast
Fresh fruit imports are running higher than expected in recent months, and the USDA has raised its import forecast for fiscal year 2022 to reflect higher unit values.
In the May 26 trade forecast, the USDA said U.S. agricultural imports from October 2021 through September 2022 (fiscal year 2022) are forecast to increase to a record $180.5 billion, up $8 billion from the February forecast.
The USDA’s May forecast said import values are up more than 20% for the first half of fiscal year 2022 compared the previous year.
The updated fiscal year 2022 forecast for horticultural product imports is $92.2 billion, $3.2 billion above the previous forecast in February.
Fresh and processed fruit imports are expected to rise by $1.2 billion and $1 billion, respectively, as import quantities of these products continue their long-running upward trend and unit values continue to increase, the USDA said.
The May forecast calls for U.S. fresh fruit imports at $17.5 billion, up 7.3% from the February forecast of $16.3 billion and 13% higher than $15.5 billion in fresh imports in fiscal year 2021.
The USDA reported import values of fresh produce commodities for the 12-month period from April 2021 to March 22, with percent change from a year ago:
- Berries (excluding strawberries): $4 billion, up 21%;
- Avocados: $3.22 billion, up 33%;
- Bananas/plantains: $2.46 billion, up 1%;
- Grapes: $1.96 billion, up 14%;
- Citrus: $1.79 billion, up 26%;
- Strawberries: $1.44 billion, up 13%;
- Pineapples: $801.6 million, up 15%;
- Mangoes: $748.5 million, up 15%;
- Melons: $673.8 million, up 17%;
- Kiwifruit: $207.9 million, up 21%;
- Pears: $108.6 million, up 6%;
- Peaches: $64.6 million, down 2%;
- Plums: $27.01 million, down 39%.
