Food inflation smoking, 11.9% higher than a year ago

Grocery food prices in May were up 11.9% above year-ago levels, the USDA reported in the June 24 Food Price Outlook report.

The USDA said overall food prices in May, including both retail grocery and foodservice outlets, were 10.1% above May 2021, and 1.1% above April levels.

Restaurant food prices in May were 7.4% above a year ago and increased 0.7% compared with April.

Grocery food prices in May jumped 1.3% compared with April and now are up 11.9% compared with May 2021.

Updated forecast numbers from the USDA put grocery inflation for all of 2022 at between 8.5% and 9.5% higher, while restaurant food prices are predicted to increase between 6% and 7%.

The USDA said fresh fruit and vegetable prices for all of 2022 are expected to increase between 6.5% and 7.5%, compared with inflation rates of 2% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2020.

“Price increases for food at home and food away from home are expected to exceed historical averages and the inflation rate in 2021,” the USDA said in the report.

The USDA said all-items Consumer Price Index , the measure of inflation for the entire economy, increased 1.1% from April to May and is now 8.6% higher than a year ago.

In 2021, grocery food prices increased 3.5% and restaurant prices increased 4.5%, with all-food inflation rated at 3.9%.

USDA projections of inflation for food categories in 2022: 

• Food at home: 8.5% to 9.5%
• Meats, poultry, and fish: 8.5% to 9.5%
• Meats:     7.5% to 8.5%
• Beef and veal: 6% to 7%
• Pork: 7% to 8%
• Other meats: 11.5% to 12.5%
• Poultry: 13% to 14%
• Fish and seafood: 8.5% to 9.5%
• Eggs: 19.5% to 20.5%
• Dairy products:  10.5% to 11.5%
• Fresh fruits and vegetables: 6.5% to 7.5%
• Fresh fruits: 8.5% to 9.5%
• Fresh vegetables: 4% to 5%
• Processed fruits and vegetables:  7.5% to 8.5%