California avocado marketers expect strong demand lighter crop

California’s smaller avocado crop should see strong demand and good market conditions in 2021, especially up and down the West Coast.

With the 2021 crop expected to be down about 25% from last season because of the alternate bearing nature of trees, marketers said California volume will begin increasing in March and April.

“We plan on ramping up production in March and April to fill increasing export demands,” said Hector Soltero, senior director of sales planning for Oxnard, Calif.-based Mission Produce. 

“In addition, we will look to California to fill the demand on size curve niches as Mexico finishes up their normal crop year.”  Soltero said the size curve for California avocados is slanting higher for 48s in 2021.

Calavo will be shipping good volumes of California hass from April through August, with peak volume from late April through July, said Peter Shore, director of business development and marketing for the Santa Paula, Calif-based company.

Shore said Calavo expects peak size to be 48s and 60s to start, with the crop sizing up as the season progresses. 

California avocado trees may produce a little more than expected fruit in April and May because of stress, said Bob Lucy, president of Del Rey Avocado, Fallbrook, Calif. 

Avocado trees start blooming at the end of March and continue through May, adding stress to the trees, he said.

California avocados are typically marketed in big volume until Labor day, but

Del Rey Avocados will have good amounts of fruit into September and October because of its groves near Morro Bay.

California’s smaller avocado crop should have great interest from retailers, said Gary Caloroso, regional business development director for Los Angeles-based Giumarra. Heat and wind contributed to the smaller crop volume this year, but Caloroso said there should be a normal spread of fruit sizes.

Marketing plans for California avocados will be similar to 2020 and will be focused on key retailers in the western U.S. during the primary April through August window, said Gahl Crane, sales director for Eco Farms, Temecula, Calif.

 Crane said the crop has a good and balanced size curve throughout the season.

Market outlook

While current market conditions are below last year, Soltero said California is still a very desired source and will have several “windows of opportunity” for success.

West Coast retailers tend to keep California avocados out West, he said.
Cities off Interstate 5, from San Diego to Los Angeles to San Francisco and Sacramento, up to Portland and Seattle, combined with Phoenix and Salt Lake City, account for much of California’s avocado demand, Lucy said.

“Those are the key areas for California fruit, and we get a premium for (it),” he said. 

Generally speaking, about 75% of California avocados are marketed within the state, and that has been fairly steady for several years, Crane said.
Shore said consumer demand for locally grown product, combined with the great flavor and taste of California avocados, make him optimistic about the future.

While West Coast retailers love California avocados, Lucy said there are a number of retailers east of the Mississippi who love to feature California fruit as well.