Retail food inflation is slowing, but USDA reports farm prices for fruits and vegetables still running hot

Retail food inflation slowed in October but is still running up double digits compared with a year ago, a new USDA Food Price report says.

The agency also said farm-level prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are running even hotter. 

All food prices in October were 10.9% higher than in October 2021. Grocery food prices were 12.4% higher than October 2021 and the USDA said restaurant prices were up 8.6% compared with October 2021.

The 2022 calendar year inflation rate for all food is now projected from 9.5% to 10.5%, with grocery prices predicted to rise between 11% and 12% and restaurant food prices expected to increase between 7% and 8%.

In 2021, grocery prices increased 3.5% and restaurant prices rose 4.5%.

Looking ahead to next year, the USDA said food prices are expected to grow more slowly but are still expected to increase at a rate above historical averages.

In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase between 3% and 4%, with grocery prices expected up between 2.5% and 3.5% and restaurant prices predicted to increase between 4% and 5%.

“The increases in all-food and food-at-home prices continued to slow in October and were the smallest of 2022,” the USDA’s Food Price report said. “The continuing increases in the Federal funds (interest) rate by the Federal Reserve place downward pressure on prices, and prices for unprocessed agricultural commodities have decreased each month since peaking in May 2022.”

Retail fresh fruits prices are now predicted to increase by 7.5% and 8.5% in 2022, while fresh vegetables prices are predicted to increase between 6% and 7%.

Making hay on the farm

Grower prices at the farm level were up significantly compared with a year ago, according to the USDA.

The USDA said farm-level fruit prices rose by 11.5% in October 2022, an increase of 34.5% from October last year.

Farm-level vegetables prices jumped by 22.4% in October 2022, following a 15.7% increase in September, and were 45.8% higher than October 2021, the USDA said.

Farm-level fruit prices are now predicted to increase between 15.5% and 18.5% this year, while farm-level vegetables prices are now predicted to increase between 34% and 37%.