2023 Canadian apple, pear and grape imports to rise, USDA predicts
Canada’s apple, pear and grape imports will rise in 2022-23, a new USDA report projects.
The annual Canada Fresh Deciduous report predicted both production and import numbers for apples, grapes and pears.
The report estimates Canadian apple production will grow 4% for marketing year 2022-23, as production has rebounded in Ontario and Quebec following adverse growing conditions in marketing year 2021-22.
British Columbia apple growers saw lingering impacts from the 2021 heat dome, and the 2022 crop will be reduced compared with 2021, the report said. Growers in British Columbia also experienced cool, wet conditions in spring, poor pollination due to bee shortages, and heat impacts through summer 2022 into autumn, with estimates suggesting production will be down 20% to 25% this season compared with marketing year 2021-22.
Hurricane Fiona negatively impacted apple harvest in the Maritimes with losses most substantial on Prince Edward Island, the report said.
Following two years of increases in Canada’s apple cultivated acreage, the USDA is forecasting a slight decline in marketing year 2022-23.
“Re-planting to higher density orchards will lead to production gains but minimize acreage expansion,” the report said. Higher land, labor, and input costs combined with labor shortages have negatively impacted expansion opportunities, according to the report.
Canadian pear production for marketing year 2022-23 is forecast to grow 15% because of a bumper crop in Ontario, especially of the bartlett variety, according to the report. The pear crop also improved in British Columbia compared with 2021, the report said.
Table grape production in Canada will decline 5%, but volumes will remain above the five-year average.
Imports rising
Canada’s imports of fresh apples are forecast to grow as consumers look to affordable and long-storing products amid high food prices and inflation, according to the report.
The U.S. commands an 80% market share of Canadian apple imports, the report said.
Canadian imports of organic apples had increased steadily year-over-year since marketing year 2015-16 but dropped off in marketing year 2021-22, according to the report.
“Organics remain a small percent of overall imports and higher pricing has negatively impacted the growth trend,” the report said. “Higher prices will once again negatively impact organic imports in marketing year 2022-23 as consumers opt for cheaper alternatives amidst high inflation.”
The report said the Canadian apple industry has been discussing the idea of establishing a national marketing agency, funded by levies on domestic production and imported fruit, to promote the consumption of apples and conduct various research projects for several years. While the idea is still being considered, no formal proposal has been put forward so far, the report said.
Imports of fresh pears are forecast to grow 4% as increased global supplies will drive increased Canadian consumption.
“The United States remains the dominate supplier to the Canadian market but has seen declining market share in recent years on growth of imports from Southern Hemisphere countries.”
Representing about 4% to 5% of total pear imports, organic pear demand has been relatively consist over recent years. Inflation could put the brake on expanded organic pear sales in Canada, the report said.
Imports of fresh table grapes will grow 3% to offset the smaller domestic output, the report said. However, the report said adverse weather impacts to the California crop are expected to reduce U.S. market share as imports from the Southern Hemisphere grow.
Imports of organic fresh table grapes dropped in marketing years 2020-21 and 2021-22, the report said.
“Younger consumers had been driving the demand for organic products, but economic challenges related to COVID-19 slowed consumer demand,” the report said. “As Canadians continue to experience high food costs, with inflation related to groceries outpacing the general inflation rate, consumers will likely continue to be more sensitive to pricing and less likely to purchase higher priced products.”
The report said Canadian demand for organic grapes will remain flat in 2022-23.
