Citrus production still headed lower, USDA predicts

U.S. citrus growers will struggle to grow output in the next 10 years, the USDA predicts in its annual outlook report.

In fact, the USDA predicts U.S. citrus output will decline from 11.2 billion pounds in 2022 to 9.8 billion pounds in 2032. That loss in citrus production will be offset by gains in noncitrus fruit and tree nut output, the report said.

Citrus production will decline “largely due to further attrition of bearing acreage in Florida’s orange and grapefruit industries.” Citrus production in California — the top producing state of fresh market oranges, lemons and tangerines — is projected to remain steady.

Total value of citrus production in the U.S. is projected to remain steady because of higher prices due to smaller domestic supply, the report said.

The USDA report said total combined farm value of fruit, tree nuts, vegetable and pulse crop (dry beans, dry peas, lentils and chickpeas) production is projected to reach $59 billion by calendar year 2032, up from $49 billion in 2021. 

Over the next 10 years, vegetable and pulse crop production is expected to grow more slowly than in the previous decade, rising by 4% between 2023 and 2032.

“This primarily reflects technical measurement challenges associated with documenting the growth of protected culture [crops], which displaces field-grown area, and to rising import competition,” the report said. “Imports are expected to continue to rise as U.S. consumers demand a more diverse, competitively priced, year-round vegetable supply.”

The USDA said its challenges with documenting the growth of protected culture largely center on the rapid growth of the protected culture subsector (mostly greenhouses and urban vertical farms) that is slowly replacing field-grown production for several major fresh vegetables.

“With some exceptions, this [protected culture] sector is still not well represented in traditional USDA data collection programs that have recorded declining field-grown area and production for some crops,” the USDA said.

In recent years, there has been a rapid rise of import volume across many fresh and processed vegetables, including imports of organic foods produced in the Southern Hemisphere, the USDA said. USDA projections assume imports will continue to rise.

Despite expanding production of higher-priced vegetables such as broccoli and organic vegetables, the value of fresh-market vegetable production, excluding melons, is projected to increase by less than 1% between 2021-23 and 2030-32 as price pressure continues from strong import growth, the report said. 

In terms of production, the report said key fresh-market vegetables over the next 10 years include lettuce, onions, carrots and sweet potatoes. 

“Within the lettuce subsector, growth is projected in romaine while field-grown leaf production and iceberg output decline,” the USDA said. Field-grown leaf lettuce share is expected to be limited by rising protected culture output, the report said.

Projected U.S. potato production will grow 9% as value rises 10% over the 2022-32 baseline period, the USDA said. 

“While planted acres are forecast to increase in 2023, total planted acres in the top 13 potato producing states are forecast to remain flat through the remainder of the baseline period,” the USDA said.

Commercial domestic mushroom production is forecast to decline slightly in the early part of the projection period, followed by steady production.

Mushroom farm value is projected to reach about $1.2 billion by 2032, a 15% increase over the 10-year period, the USDA said.