World avocado growth far from over, Rabobank report says

World avocado output has boomed in the last decade, and global expansion in production is far from over, Rabobank says in a new report.

With that growth, RaboResearch co-authors David Magaña, Cindy van Rijswick, Gonzalo Salinas and Pia Piggott say that the avocado market will be more competitive in the years ahead. That will force operators to be not only more efficient but also increasingly sustainable, the report said.

Rabobank recently published its World Avocado Trade Map to illustrate trade flows for the avocado.

Mexico remains the leading exporting country and the U.S. is the largest importing market, the report said.

The global avocado market is worth about U.S. $18 billion. Global avocado production expanded by about 7% annually during the past decade, according to the report.

“Attractive prices and returns during that period were relevant drivers to expanding production in key regions,” van Rijswick, global strategist for fresh produce and farm inputs at Rabobank, said in a news release.

“We believe there is room for significant growth in several markets around the world, as per capita consumption is highly variable,” van Rijswick added.

In terms of per capita avocado availability (which is used as an indicator of consumption), Mexico leads, with a global record of nearly 20 pounds of fresh avocados per person per year, followed by Chile with over 17 pounds.  Australia and the U.S. complete the list of countries with over 8.8 pounds of per capita availability, the report said.

Leading producers

Currently, the report said that Mexico accounts for 30% of global avocado output and has increased its output by 6% annually in the last decade, the report said.

“In Colombia, Peru, and Kenya, production increased roughly 15%, 12%, and 11% (annually) during the same period, accounting for 12%, 9%, and 6% of current global production, respectively,” the report said.

The U.S., which was still among the world’s largest avocado-producing countries in 2012, dropped a few places in the ranking and is no longer a top 10 producer, according to the report.

Increased avocado production in countries with complementary harvesting seasons has allowed year-round availability in key markets, including the U.S., the EU, and some markets in Asia, according to the report. While production in Mexico extends year-round, it reaches a seasonal low in June and July, when production peaks in California and Peru, providing steady supply to the U.S. market.

“With exports increasing at an average annual growth rate of around 8% over the past decade, Mexico reaffirmed its place as the largest avocado-exporting country in the world, surpassing 1 million metric tons in 2022,” van Rijswick said in the release. 

The primary destination is, by far, the US market, where product versatility and promotional campaigns have helped to create demand for avocados in retail and foodservice channels. Globally, the U.S. remains the largest destination market, with imports increasing by about 8% annually from 2012 to 2022.

Sustainability concerns remain on the agenda for avocado producers, with water usage being the main issue discussed, according to the report. Partly because of this, avocado growers have invested in advanced irrigation systems to improve water efficiency, the report said.