USDA: Mexican tomato output and exports forecast to rise

The USDA’s annual report on Mexican tomatoes forecasts the country’s 2023 fresh tomato production at 3.87 million metric tons, a 2% increase over the Mexican government's official 2022 production estimate of 3.8 million metric tons.

“Stable U.S. demand and increasing adoption of greenhouse technologies account for the uptick in year-on-year production growth,” the report said.

The report also forecasts Mexico’s 2023 fresh tomato exports at 2.06 million metric tons, a 5% increase over 2022, due to expected higher production, stagnant domestic consumption and robust U.S. demand.

Although exports to the U.S. occur year-round and are consistently above 100,000 metric tons per month, the largest volume of exports generally occurs from January to March and from October to December.

In 2022, the report said Mexico exported over 1.81 million metric tons of tomatoes to the U.S. and accounted for about 91% market of tomatoes imported into the U.S.

The report said Sinaloa remains Mexico’s largest tomato-producing state and accounts for 22% of total production, followed by San Luis Potosi, Michoacán, Zacatecas and Jalisco.

Export strength

Mexico’s tomato exports to the U.S. will remain strong due to robust supplies and flat Mexican consumption, the report said.

Mexican tomato production occurs throughout the year with two overlapping production and harvest peaks, the report said. From December to April, the state of Sinaloa — Mexico's largest open-field and shade house tomato producer — dominates the domestic market and exports over 80% of its crop to the U.S., according to the report.

During the period from May to November, the states of San Luis Potosi followed by Michoacán, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Morelos, and Puebla become major suppliers, the report said.

According to the Mexican government’s Agrifood and Fisheries Information Service, the official 2022 production estimate reached 3.8 million metric tons.

Sinaloa's production in 2022 totaled 821,000 metric tons, followed by San Luis Potosi with 475,149 metric tons, Michoacán with 322,153 metric tons, Zacatecas with 244,706 metric tons, Jalisco with 197,946 metric tons and Baja California Sur with 189,659 metric tons.

San Luis Potosi, Michoacán, Zacatecas and Jalisco account for over 55% of national production, but tomatoes are grown throughout the country, the report said.

“While Sinaloa currently remains Mexico’s largest state-level producer, most of the overall production growth is dispersed across San Luis Potosi, Michoacan, Jalisco, as well as other smaller producing states,” the report said.

Mexico exports over half of its annual tomato production, and growers throughout the country use greenhouses, shade houses, high-tunnel systems and other climate-control technologies to supply the U.S. market year-round, the report said. In fact, Mexican government sources reveal that 67% of tomato production is grown under controlled conditions, the report said.

The greatest volume of Mexican tomatoes imported into the U.S. enters through the Laredo (Texas) Customs District, followed by the Nogales (Ariz.) and San Diego Customs Districts, the report said.

The Laredo District has four important ports of entry for fresh tomato shipments, chiefly Pharr, Laredo, Brownsville and Progreso. In comparison, the Nogales and San Diego Customs Districts each have just one port of entry for tomatoes, the report said.