Ample supply and lower prices reported for 2023 Peruvian avocado crop

U.S. consumers just can’t get enough avocados, and with domestic supply declining over the last 10 years, importers now account for 90% of U.S. sales, according to the USDA. While Mexico remains the nation’s main international supplier, avocados from Peru are playing an increasingly important role in filling the supply gap.

“Peru has consistently delivered a summer supply base to the domestic marketplace,” said Andy Bruno, president of the avocado division at Naturipe Farms in Salinas, Calif. “Historically, Peru’s peak supply aligns with the period when there is less supply available from Mexico, which gives Peruvian avocados a great chance to take center stage.”

The size of avocados grown in Peru is another selling point in the U.S. market, he adds.

“Peruvian-grown avocados tend to be larger, with solid availability from the 32-count to the 48-count sizes, whereas avocados from California and Mexico hit their size peak at just 48-count and 60-count.” he said. “Their large size is a great opportunity for retailers to run avocado promotions with the confidence that they’ll have a steady supply
for consumers.”

Slightly higher yields, with good sizing and quality

Avocado growers and distributors are expecting an average to larger-size crop from Peru this season, with good sizing and quality.

Gahl Crane, sales director at Eco Farms in Temecula, Calif., which works in partnership with Vancouver, British Columbia-based Oppy, said that this year’s yield has increased by approximately 10% to 12% over 2022.

“We should see average sizes for Peru, with peak sizes being 40s and 48s, and with ample supplies of 60s, 32s and 36s,” he said.

Although this season has seen a slight delay, “fruit quality and size are looking good now,” Crane said. “The curve should match up with demand in the market.”

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Brock Becker, director of sourcing for South and Central America at Mission Produce in Oxnard, Calif., is reporting excellent quality and availability for the 2023 crop.

“Avocado arrivals from Peru are ramping up to the U.S., with peak volumes expected in July and a steady supply expected through the summer months,” he said. “The industry is seeing minimal defects, and the fruit is arriving in optimal condition.”

Mission’s owned production of 8,000 acres of hass avocados in Peru is now underway, and the company expects its total exportable production to range from 125 million to 135 million pounds this year.

Peter Shore, vice president of product management at Calavo in Santa Paola, Calif., said he is seeing good availability of 48s and larger this year.

“Volumes look to be similar to 2022,” he said.

Pricing back in balance

While the 2022 season was characterized by higher prices, industry experts predict that avocado pricing will come back into balance this year.

“In 2022, we entered the summer period with market demand exceeding the available supply remaining from Mexico, which was reflected in higher prices and lower supply,” Bruno said.

Because there is ample supply in 2023 to meet current demand trends, he added, prices will come down accordingly.

“Avocado shoppers can plan to have enough product to satisfy their guacamole and avocado toast cravings all summer long,” he said.

Crane noted that 2022 was an unusual year, with fob prices much higher than they had been in a long time. This year, however, pricing for Peruvian avocados has been steady and fairly typical.

“We expect to see a range of $24 to $28 per box for programs,” he said, “though the spot market could see a different price — perhaps higher at times and on key sizes and possibly lower if origins like Mexico and California continue to keep the market well-supplied.”

Headwinds and opportunities

Peruvian avocados offer many benefits for retailers and consumers, yet there are also challenges. One is the sheer distance the fruit must travel to reach the U.S. market compared to avocados from California or Mexico, Crane said.

“[Peru’s] season falls during California’s prominent harvesting weeks in June and July, not to mention that the state is much closer to the market,” he said. “They can harvest, pack and deliver produce to market much faster, and this will always be a challenge for Peru.”

Even so, Crane thinks that the advantages outweigh the downsides, especially as demand in the U.S. market continues to grow.

“Peru fills an essential role in keeping the market supplied. Because there are often major fluctuations in total volume from California and Mexico, Peru will always be a part of the summertime supply and that is a major opportunity,” he said.

Working with retailers

To help boost sales of Peruvian avocados this season, Avocados from Peru is partnering with the Peruvian Avocado Commission — the industry’s U.S.-based marketing arm headquartered in Washington, D.C. — to run promotions with Lidl and Meijer stores across the country.

This will be the second year running that Lidl will partner with the commission to give away a 2023 Tesla Model 3, an Aventon Aventure E-Bike or a $2,000 Lidl gift card to three randomly selected winners. The sweepstakes launches July 1 and runs through Sept. 5 in the nine states in which Lidl stores operate.

“We saw a huge amount of excitement and engagement last year when we gave away the avocado-wrapped Tesla,” said Stephanie Stanton, Lidl’s U.S. director of marketing, “and we can’t wait to award this year’s prizes to our avocado-obsessed customers.”

To enter, participants can join the “myLidl” membership program, complete a registration form at the sweepstakes website (lidlavotesla.com) or post a photo or video to their Instagram account demonstrating their favorite way to eat avocados from Peru, tagging posts with @lidlus and @avosfromperu and including #LidlAvoSweepstakes in the post.

Suppliers are also doing their part to promote Peruvian avocados. Oppy works with the Peruvian Avocado Commission to customize programs for retailers, including in-store bins, customized bag labels, radio ads, sports partnerships, coupons and more.

“The PAC does an excellent job in working with retailers, and we support their work to grow Peruvian avocado consumption in the market with those retailers,” Crane said. “In addition, offering our retailers fixed season-long pricing equips them with the tools to set consumer prices for approximately 90 days. This substantial assistance greatly promotes Peruvian avocados.”

Naturipe works directly with its customer base to develop promotion strategies that align with the timing of the Peruvian crop and availability of the projected sizing from Peru.

“Our goal is to create the framework where the retailer can deliver a positive and competitive avocado experience for their shoppers while simultaneously supporting the grower side of the equation to ensure the long-term sustainability of the industry,” Bruno said.

Becker points to this season’s greater supply as an opportunity to promote avocados from Peru this summer, especially around what he calls “avo-casions.” This includes guacamole-friendly dates like the Fourth of July and National Avocado Day on July 31.