Are Farmers Losing Yield? The High Heat's Potential Impact on Midwest's Crops
It’s no secret this week’s heat is gripping the Midwest. Forecasts started fueling commodity prices last week as crops in portions of the Midwest were forecast to see the most challenging weather yet this year. Now that the heat is here and expected to remain through the weekend, analysts say crop conditions are expected to dip in USDA’s report on Monday.
“The heat and forecasts impacted corn, soybeans, and spring wheat prices, it was across the board,” says Dan Basse of AgResource Company. “It was that hot of Montana all the way up until Nebraska and stretching over to Illinois.”
Temperatures are forecast to top 100 degrees and rains remain spotty. Earlier this summer, condition ratings seemed to be in a free fall, but July’s rains and cooler temperatures caused conditions rebound, but the heat to close out July means crop conditions could be set to take another dip.
“We believe crop conditions will be done 2% to 3% on Monday for corn, soybeans and spring wheat, we'll see how it all plays out,” he says. “But it’s the weather during August that will be the big determinant and especially for the soybean crop.”
USDA’s Crop Progress on Monday showed the U.S. corn crop is rated 57% good to excellent, steady from the previous week. Soybeans dropped 1 point with 54% rated good to excellent. The notable declines were to the crop in Tennessee, Minnesota and Missouri.
Forecasting Yield
With the mix of rains and continued drought, AgResource Company is has revised its yield forecast.
“As we look at it, we're sitting today at about a 173 bu. per acre corn yield. We're looking at soybeans around 50 and a half, we'll see how Mother Nature treats us going forward,” says Basse. “That's down from USDA. It's not a disaster, but it's truly not the kind of crop we could have had.”
Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing says he’s been impressed with crop conditions, especially in the eastern Corn Belt. His travels took him from Ohio to Nebraska this week.
“Along the interstates, at least, the crop looks better than I anticipated would,” he says. “It was more consistent to corn. Corn is almost uniformly pollinating, although there is an area in Indiana, this is clearly behind.”
He says the soybean crop seems to be shorter in height, but still showing good canopy.
“I only saw a couple of fields when it was 95 degrees on Wednesday that were showing some stress,” says Brugler. “Now, having said that, I know there's areas off the interstate that are worse.”
He says some producers he works with have talked about concerns with the smoke cover and the impact on sunlight to soybeans. However, others seem to think the cloud cover is cushioning the crop from the heat.
“It’s a mixed bag, but I would say, we're in the 174 bu. pre acre to 175 bu. per acre yield range on corn based on current conditions,” says Brugler. “And the standard deviation was still allow 179 or 180 bu. per acre if we have a good finish to the corn crop.”
He says his current estimate for soybeans is a little over 50 bu. per acre, but not 52 bu. per acre that USDA currently has penciled in. He adds Brugler Marketing’s virtual crop tour, which surveys clients, will happen the first week of August.
