Climate change

Are We on the Verge of a Global Food Crisis?

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 12:01:27 GMT

In a world of erratic climates and geopolitical volatility, data is becoming as essential as soil to our food supply. That data, specifically new predictive modeling, suggests a catastrophe is looming.

Are we on the verge of a global food crisis? Yes, says Francisco Martin-Rayo, whose Helios AI platform aggregates billions of data points to provide a real-time view of the climate and economic risks affecting commodities around the globe.

“We’re at the beginning of the worst food crisis we’ve ever seen, with global food prices heading 12% to 18% higher by the end of the year,” says the Helios AI CEO and co-founder.

The cause? Martin-Rayo says 50% of globally traded urea transits through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz; Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), the world’s largest urea production site, is currently offline; and spring planting is underway in the Northern Hemisphere without full access to fertilizer.

The exec detailed the crisis in an op-ed piece, “The Iran War’s Other Energy Shortage — Food,” published in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

Helios’ AI platform aggregates billions of data points to provide a real-time view of the climate and economic risks affecting commodities around the globe, so it can equip customers with the market intelligence they need to get ahead of price movements and supply disruptions.

“We cover 90% of all the places in the world that are growing commodities for export. We cover 77 commodities across 90 countries,” says Martin-Rayo. “We’re always showing you what’s the total percent of production, what’s the total percentage of export. And that allows our folks to say, ‘Hey, we don’t think you’re going to get your tomatoes from Spain or Mexico or California or your mangoes from Peru or your blueberries from Chile. Here are the other places you really need to start looking at.’”

Predicting Specialty Crops in Crisis

Aggregating these billions of data points across the world’s key growing regions allows Helios to predict everything from bumps in the supply chain road to major disruptions like the ongoing Brazilian citrus crisis, which intensified in 2024 with record-low production and all-time high orange juice prices, driven by citrus greening disease (also known as huanglongbing or HLB), severe droughts and heatwaves.

Months ahead, the data told Helios that heat and drought levels were high in Brazilian citrus groves, and a forecast for a crisis was likely.

“We predicted the Brazilian citrus [crisis] eight months before Reuters and Expana, and 12 months before the USDA,” says Martin-Rayo. “When you had that level of heat and drought during the flowering period, it’s just not going to happen, right? Those are not the right conditions for the citrus trees to develop flowers. So, we basically told our customers, ‘You’re going to have to find an alternative [supply].’”

More recently, unexpected freezes impacted cherries in Michigan and Turkey simultaneously.

“Cherries is one of the most interesting items in produce, because it’s not really fungible like raspberries, blackberries and blueberries, which are somewhat from a consumer perspective. Cherries are not [interchangeable with other fruit],” Martin-Rayo says. “These are the types of insights we bring in: If you think you’re going to have a really bad cherry harvest, here’s what it means and what supply levers you can pull.”

At present, Helios is working with California peaches, as it expects “a pretty bad drought this summer,” he says.

CEO Francisco Martin-Rayo says we’re on the verge of the worst food crisis we’ve ever seen.

(Photo courtesy of Helios AI)

Global Supply Chain Disruption

Citrus, cherries and peaches are three examples, but Martin-Rayo says Helios is tracking agricultural commodities around the globe to help procurement teams leverage AI to get ahead of supply chain interruption.

“When I say we cover 90% of all the places in the world that are growing these commodities for export, it’s almost at the farm level,” he says. “Every 24 hours, we’re constantly updating actual temperatures, precipitation, speed — all these different weather metrics, and we reforecast it out for the next 10 years, but the core forecast is really the next two years, so it gives us an unrivaled look at what any crop looks like globally overall.”

With weather increasingly wild, Martin-Rayo says the Helios value proposition is resonating like never before.

“We work with one of the largest retailers in the U.K. They buy a couple billion dollars’ worth of produce a year,” says Martin-Rayo. “Our main contact there has been in the field 30 years. We were talking recently — though before the war — and he said, ‘The last two months have been the hardest two months of my professional career because of climate.’”

Every major retailer is sourcing globally, which means every retailer is impacted not just by the weather in their own backyard but also around the world.

“It is such a different environment and ecosystem than it was even two or three years ago when we first started,” says Martin-Rayo. When he and Eden Canlilar, Helios co-founder and chief technology officer, launched in 2022, they had to convince potential customers there was a need for their AI platform.

“We don’t have to do that anymore,” he says. “Now, we just have to convince them that we’re the best company out there.”

From Fertilizer to Food Crisis

As to fertilizer shortages and soaring input costs impacting food supplies, Martin-Rayo says he spoke with an Australian grain grower last week who has access to just 15% of the urea he needs for planting, with no viable source to fill the gap.

“That conversation is being replicated from the Punjab to the Po Valley to the Cerrado,” says Martin-Rayo. “Fertilizer not applied in April cannot be retroactively applied in July.” For the Australian wheat grower, if he only has 15% of the fertilizer he needs, it means lower production and lower yields in the future, he says.

And as the global supply chain awaits the Strait of Hormuz reopening, a recovery won’t be instantaneous, Martin-Rayo warns.

“The strait will reopen, but the food system clock doesn’t reset when it does,” he says. “The fuse was lit in February. The harvest damage is already locked in.”

As a result, Helios predicts global food prices rising by as much as 18% by the end of 2026.

“Unfortunately, that’s what we expect,” he says. “We work with procurement managers that are sourcing agricultural commodities globally, and there were these dual shocks that happened. Your strait closes, and the Gulf isn’t necessarily important in terms of a lot of agricultural commodities, but it’s so crucial in terms of fertilizer.”

The combined impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure and QAFCO shutting down had significant repercussions on fertilizer supplies, says Martin-Rayo, who estimates QAFCO makes up 14% of total urea production globally.

“And the hard part about growing conditions right now is, when are we going to have a ceasefire? When are we going to have oil transport, etc. Even if you had a ceasefire tomorrow, you still have to demine. You have to get insurance rates to the level where it makes sense to transport goods. You have to get captains who are comfortable transporting — and then the first thing you’re going to transport is going to be oil … You’re going to export the thing that gives you the highest profit margin.”

The Domino Effect

Australia produces a high-protein type of wheat, says Martin-Rayo. The lack of fertilizer now will result in lower harvests for the Australian wheat grower, which means grain stocks go down, he says. Then the market looks for the product elsewhere, like the U.S., another supplier of high-protein wheat.

“Then you have a price issue, but eventually it becomes an availability issue, and you start to look at export restrictions, and that’s when it gets really difficult, because when we look at the futures markets, what they’re pricing right now is a price shock, but they’re not pricing availability or an export restriction shock, and that is a huge difference,” says Martin-Rayo.

He says while the U.S. is in a somewhat different situation than the Australian wheat grower, the interconnectedness of the global food supply means everyone must brace for impact.

“We’re incredibly lucky in the United States,” he says. “We are geographically blessed. I think we make domestically 75% of the nitrogen fertilizer we need to use, but we’re still impacted by global prices, and so we’re not going to have an availability shock, but we’re already seeing the price shock.

“Farming is probably the most difficult business in the world,” he continues. “If everything is perfect, you make a few points. If anything goes wrong, you lose money.”

Martin-Rayo estimates urea prices last year were in the $400s per metric ton and they’re now in the $600s.

“It’s a huge input differential,” he says. “And so that’s also going to impact the amount of fertilizer you’re putting in.

“The agricultural supply chain is so tightly integrated at the global level, and once certain problems kick off, like the ones we’re seeing now around price and availability of fertilizer, it really starts to cascade, which is what we worry about,” he adds.

While Martin-Rayo says row crops will more immediately feel the impact of soaring fertilizer costs, specialty crops are part of the same global food supply ecosystem.

“Within the specialty crop market, we need to do a deeper dive in terms of what are the different inputs across the different specialty crops? What are the different margins that exist there? How will this impact them?” he says.

And rising fuel prices will also contribute to the cost of produce, whether it’s coming from California, Mexico or overseas, says Martin-Rayo.

“This is after you grow it, you’ve already paid more for your input costs,” he says. “Then that second part of it is it’s actually a lot more expensive to transport.”

Mark Your Calendars
For additional insights on demand forecasting and how AI is helping to protect and grow retail margins, join us at West Coast Produce Expo , May 27-29, where Helios AI CEO Francisco Martin-Rayo is one of our esteemed speakers.

Food Becomes Catalyst for Change at Climate Week NYC

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 11:58:07 GMT

It’s Climate Week in New York City, and for Sara Roversi, founder and president of the Future Food Institute (FFI), an organization and global ecosystem devoted to sustainable food futures, there’s no substitute for the strides made when stakeholders meet in person.

“All the activists, scientists, changemakers, innovators, philanthropists, investors in social innovation and so on, come together for Climate Week, and I strongly believe that meeting in person can accelerate [climate action],” Roversi says. “What is also fundamental is that these meeting points help us to build trust, because you cannot build trust through digital meetings.

“You build trust if you start to shake hands, hug people, see people in the eyes, and make commitments,” she continues. “And this is happening here this week in New York. So, it’s very important to be here.”

Climate Week NYC, Sept. 21-28, is the world’s largest climate gathering outside of the Conference of the Parties (COP), and organizers say this year’s theme, “Power On,” is a call to continue to drive progress.

“What I’ve found here at Climate Week, is that people want to be part of the change. They want to be part of the solution,” Roversi says.

With offices, living labs, innovation hubs and ambassadors around the world, the Bologna, Italy-based non-profit Future Food Institute seeks to be part of the solution through its three main pillars: education, community development and innovation.

Founded in 2014, FFI has long participated in Climate Week, but Roversi says this year the organization’s involvement is amplified.

“Future Food Institute started many years ago with the ambition of nudging food system transformation — seeing food really at the epicenter, the nexus between humans and nature,” she says. “It’s what represents our identity, history and culture. At this year’s Climate Week, we are connecting all of those dots.”

Connecting the dots includes presenting Future Food Institute’s efforts that align in education with its academy, work it’s doing within communities from marginal and rural areas to urban centers, and “also showcasing how much public-private collaborations can really spark innovative solutions,” she says.

The Power of Food

Gastronomy is central to the non-profit’s efforts, as Roversi sees food as a lever for climate action and “a super powerful, positive weapon that we all have in our hands.”

She also says the power of food is often underestimated.

“Food is a global language and a driver for global economic prosperity,” she says. “Food is also a catalyst for change. So how do we face the urgent issues of creating a more sustainable future of food while understanding technology’s role in closing the gaps in our food system? The key is knowledge and education, the cornerstones of innovation.”

At Climate Week NYC, Future Food Institute has been presenting several of its projects, including one that looks at the connection between where food and water comes from and human health.

“We’re looking at everything — creating the correlation with the soil to where the food comes from, as well as how much fresh food you’re eating, how much food in season you’re eating, and trying to understand what are those parameters that are at the end of the game impacting on our health,” she says.

The goal, Roversi says, is to create a kind of algorithm of longevity, a platform that can support policy and decision-makers to understand the health costs of its future citizens.

“If we see that eating fresh food is going to impact positively on human health, and we know it, we know it clearly, then we have to start to invest in the infrastructure to target human health,” she says. “So, [the fresh produce] sector is absolutely fundamental.”

Roversi also says it’s more important than ever to be at Climate Week because we’re in a unique time in history.

“It’s a unique time given the complexity at the global level, in terms of the geopolitical situation, the human, social, spiritual crisis, the environmental crisis and the political crisis,” she says. “It’s a time in history where we see lots of different conflicts that are reshaping the equilibrium of the planet.

“If you’re thinking about food, food security, procurement — and we know the complexity of the food system — it’s very important to be here and talk about food.”

And she sees fruits and vegetables as critical to the global food system.

“[Produce] plays a critical root and role in the future of food because fruits and vegetables are nutritious and feed the world. I strongly believe that your sector is going to play the most important role in the future.”

Technology and the Future of Food

While Roversi says she’s “a strong supporter of AI and technology” in agriculture, she eyes it with caution.

“With AI and any kind of tech solution, I’m very afraid that we’re going to grow a dumb society, if we’re not able to work with and invest in the infrastructure around AI in a way that makes humans more creative, more conscious, more empathetic and uses AI in the proper way,” she says. “I think that in food, this is absolutely fundamental, because when we’re talking about food, we’re talking about human health and we’re talking environmental health. So, it’s important to empower people to make much more thoughtful decisions when they’re thinking about food.”

Roversi was asked to host the Prime Minister of Bhutan during Climate Week NYC. “They’re building the happiness city, so for me, he needs to get the Nobel Prize for Peace,” she says.

(Photo courtesy of Future Food Institute)

A Global Initiative

Beyond Climate Week NYC, Future Food Institute participates in climate-related events around the globe including Venice Climate Week.

“Venice is a place that itself represents fragility and beauty and resilience, because we know that sea level rising in a city like Venice is something that you can touch every single day,” she says.

The institute is also actively involved in promoting the Mediterranean diet, which Roversi says is much more than supporting a planet-friendly diet — it means embracing a balanced and holistic way of life.

“We see the power of gastronomy as a very important pillar of our set of cultural heritages,” she says. “So, we are also managing the permanent secretariat of UNESCO for the Mediterranean diet, and we were here also presenting our summit that is going to take place in Italy in November, and we are celebrating the 15^th anniversary of the Mediterranean diet as a UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity.”

At Climate Week, FFI is also meeting with its project partner Tokyo Tatemono. Together the organizations are building a sustainable food ecosystem in the Kyobashi area of Tokyo known as Tokyo Living Lab.

“They are strong believers in a regenerative economy,” she says. “Basically, they don’t have agriculture there because they are in one of the most crowded places in the world … We are working with them on designing a strategic initiative advocating for regenerative models in cities that can really create an alliance with the agricultural area around major cities.”

What does Climate Week NYC’s theme mean to Roversi and Future Food Institute?

“I think that empowering human development is the starting point and when we think about powering on, it’s about rethinking the models, rethinking the KPIs, rethinking the system, rethinking the way we are building partnerships,” she says. “For Future Food Institute our identity is [based on] pioneering. We have always put ourselves out there as a pilot, as a trial. We are a kind of a fab lab of systems. We are hackers. We are always acting in this way and powering on.

“And we always put ourselves in the system saying, ‘come on board, and let’s change the world together,’” she says.

Farming under a big red sun: Worker advocates push for heat-stress protections

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 20:40:46 GMT

Many regions across the U.S. have faced record-breaking heat this year, with communities and government agencies scrambling to ensure the public could cope with the severe conditions.

Heat-related fatalities far outnumber other weather-related deaths, according to the National Weather Service, and vulnerable populations — especially those working and living outside — are on the front lines enduring the stress of rising temperatures.

The recent death of a Kroger employee at a company distribution center in Memphis, Tenn., as well as the recent loss of two farmworkers in South Florida who succumbed to the record heat underscores the critical need for food industry leaders to provide adequate measures to ensure the safety of workers in extreme heat.

According to the National Institutes of health, farmworkers are 35 times more likely to die from heat exposure than workers in other industries. Despite this, there is no federal regulation mandating heat safety for outdoor workers, and to date, only four states — California, Oregon, Washington and Colorado — have adopted heat-stress standards.

Related news: Keep Farm Employees Safe During the Extreme Heat

In the absence of comprehensive regulation, advocates are seeking solutions within the fresh produce industry. Some independent programs and social responsibility certifications are seeking to ensure laborers have the support and resources they need to work outside amid heat and prolonged sun exposure.

Presidential medal-winning program tackles heat illness prevention

The Fair Food Program, founded in 2011 and implemented in farm fields from Florida to Colorado, is one such program that mandates heat protections for farmworkers. The Fair Food Program’s Heat Illness Standards is grounded in ensuring basic needs are met — providing water, shade and mandatory rest breaks — alongside education and life-saving intervention training, according to a news release.

What’s more, the Heat Illness Standards are one piece of the program’s broader Presidential medal-winning guidelines to safeguard farmworkers’ basic human rights, giving them the power to enforce these standards in the fields. In a recent Miami Herald op-ed, Princeton University professor Susan Marquis emphasized how the standards work to help farmworkers.

“The Fair Food Program’s heat illness prevention standards already are proven. Crews are staying hydrated and safe,” she said in the op-ed. “As one farmworker reported, ‘We can do more than improve day-to-day health and safety conditions. We can prevent a father or mother, a daughter or son, from losing their lives.’”

How the Fair Food Program’s heat illness protections work

To protect workers, the Fair Food Program is backed by the market power of 14 major retailers — including Walmart, McDonald’s, Whole Foods Market and Trader Joe’s — who have each pledged to halt purchases from growers who are suspended from the Fair Food Program for violating its standards, according to the release.

Additionally, The Fair Food Program is monitored by a team of independent, trained human rights investigators with the Fair Food Standards Council. The council maintains a database of its audit and complaint investigation results, including quotes from workers interviewed in the process.

“The program is credited with eliminating unsafe working conditions, wage theft, beatings, rape and forced labor for tens of thousands of farmworkers each year on participating U.S. farms,” Marquis said in the Miami Herald op-ed.

Related news: Harvesting cherries at night to protecting apples with nets, record heat takes toll on fruit crop

Thousands of farmworkers are covered by the Fair Food Program, which operates today in 10 states and three countries and includes 12 specialty crop commodities.

Expanding the program translates to more farmworker protections

To extend life-saving heat stress protections to workers in fields, farmworkers with the Coalition of Immokalee Workers are pushing for the expansion of the Fair Food Program by calling on major food brands to join, the release said.

As part of the Fair Food Program’s heat illness protections, one farmworker shared with auditors how things had changed since the program was adopted.

“The fields have changed — now, we have better wages and better treatment for everyone. Before, there was nothing like that. Before, I would be working under the sun, working hard, and I would want to stop for water,” the farmworker said. “The boss would stop me, and I would say, ‘I need water.’ He would say, ‘There’s the ditch over there, it’s got some water.’ There were no water bottles. We were exhausted, we needed water. There were no toilets.”

Related news: Florida farmworker’s death was preventable, Labor Department says

The farmworker said that, before the Fair Food Program, those who spoke out would be fired.

“But now that we are united, we have strength. We are taking steps forward, and we cannot go back,” the farmworker told Fair Food Program auditors.

Californians receive first 100% water allocation since 2006

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 18:34:28 GMT

Water availability in California has made a 180-degree turn in 2023.

Drought pressures plagued the Golden State at the beginning of the year, but after an unexpected series of atmospheric rivers this spring that inundated the state with precipitation and flooding, water districts are now set to receive 100% requested water deliveries for the first time in almost two decades.

This week the California Department of Water Resources confirmed yet another increase in the State Water Project deliveries for 2023. The new projection that 100% of water supplies will be delivered is up from a March estimate of 75%, according to a news release from the agency.

Increased water supply and careful management of reservoirs during this extreme winter allows the state water resources department to maximize deliveries, Director Karla Nemeth said in the release.

Related news: Reeling from another round of storms, California growers fight to recover farmland from flooding

“We are exceedingly grateful to [the U.S. Bureau of] Reclamation, and its dedicated and hard-working staff, for the increased water allocation. Following two years of 0% allocations, this announcement will provide much needed water to support the district’s communities, family-owned farms, and hard-working families in the San Joaquin Valley. This water supply will assist growers in Westlands with putting the land to work to grow the food that feeds the world,” Jose Gutierrez, Westlands Water District’s interim general manager, said in a response statement.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor’s April 20 update , 91% of the state is free of drought conditions. No areas of California remain in severe, extreme or exceptional drought conditions.

“Given the positive snowpack and reservoir levels throughout the Central Valley Project, the San Luis and Delta-Mendota Water Authority is pleased to see another increase in water allocations for Authority member agencies,” Federico Barajas, executive director of the San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water Authority, said in a statement. “I’d like to extend appreciation to the Bureau of Reclamation for their work in navigating the complexities of this water year, which began with preparations for a third year of drought and quickly transitioned into flood management.”

While California’s surface water availability has greatly improved following three years of drought, challenges remain in the northern part of the state and in “over-drafted groundwater basins” that millions of Californians rely on, which have been slower to recover, according to the According to the state Department of Water Resources.

“The Colorado River Basin, which is a critical water supply source for Southern California, is still in the midst of a 23-year drought,” the department said in a news release. “Californians should continue to use water wisely to help the state adapt to a hotter, drier future.”

Adjusting to a highly variable new normal

“While this year has brought a much needed respite from the dry conditions that our members have experienced for the last three years, we know that California’s hydrology is becoming increasingly variable and dry conditions could return quickly,” Barajas, of the San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water Authority, said in the release.

Capturing water in years like 2023 is a critical piece of a sustainable water strategy, Barajas added.

“Infrastructure and regulatory improvements to maximize the storage and movement of water when its available can create a more sustainable future for our member agencies and the communities and ecosystems they serve,” Barajas said in the release.

Nemeth, the state water resources department director, said the agency is moving and storing “as much water as possible” for future community, agriculture and environmental benefit.

“We must recognize the need to continue preparing for the next drought and future dry years,” said Gutierrez of the Westlands Water District. “For that reason, Westlands is investing in a sustainable water future for our farmers. Westlands is exploring and implementing creative approaches to maximize water use efficiency, recharge and storage and improve climate resilience.”

According to an agency statement, the Gov. Gavin Newsom adminstration, in partnership with the California Legislature, has prioritized actions to secure and safeguard California’s water supply, such as:

Respond to the Tulare Lake Basin flood.
Expand water supply and storage by 1.1 million acre-feet.
Issue executive orders to capture and store more water.
Fast-track groundwater recharge.
Maximize stormwater capture.
Expand water storage above and below ground.
Advance clear, ambitious water supply and resiliency targets.
Modernize water infrastructure.

California farm groups praise governor’s actions to recharge aquifers

Wed, 22 Mar 2023 15:11:54 GMT

Amid more heavy rain and snow throughout California, Gov. Gavin Newson signed an executive order March 10 that would make floodwater capture to basins easier for groundwater storage.

The order suspends regulations and restrictions to enable water agencies and water users to divert flood water to boosting groundwater recharge.

“California is seeing extreme rain and snow, so we’re making it simple to redirect water to recharge groundwater basins,” Newsom said in a news release. “This order helps us take advantage of expected intense storms and increases state support for local stormwater capture efforts.”

Related news: Western growers seek new ways to safeguard crops, secure stable water supply

California-based industry groups Western Growers and the California Farm Bureau praised the decision, citing the long-term benefits of taking quick action to replenish and store valuable water resources.

“Our groundwater basins are critical for supplying drinking water for our communities as well as helping our farmers produce the food supply for Californians,” California Farm Bureau President Jamie Johansson said in a news release. “We applaud Gov. Newsom’s courageous decision to divert floodwaters from this year’s storms to replenish our depleted groundwater basins. This can help protect life and property during our continuing storms.”

In August, Newsom’s administration released a plan, “ California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future ,” calling for investments in new sources of water supply, accelerating projects and modernizing how the state manages water through new technology.

“We strongly support efforts to enhance California’s long-term water supplies during wet years, including recharging our groundwater and capturing and storing surface water for our reservoirs,” Johansson said in the release.

Western Growers President and CEO Dave Puglia also commended Newsom’s water supply strategy, saying in a statement that the governor’s plan “recognizes the urgent need to build new and improve existing infrastructure and to streamline and improve the practicality of the regulatory processes that govern them. Critically, that means new and expanded surface and groundwater storage to capture wet year flood flows that are too infrequent to be missed.”

Western growers seek new ways to safeguard crops, secure stable water supply

Wed, 08 Mar 2023 22:14:55 GMT

In recent weeks, the collective sigh of relief from growers in California has been palpable. While the West continues to experience unprecedented extreme weather events and patterns, above-normal rainfall in recent months provided cause to celebrate.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the recent deluge has helped satiate the dryness and drought conditions across much of the Golden State. Added to this, drought monitor statistics have recently confirmed that the Sierra Nevada and mountain foothills in central California are now free of drought and abnormal dryness for the first time since January 2020.

“The rain has improved California soil moisture and streamflow levels, while the snow has increased mountain snowpack to much above-normal levels. Most California reservoirs have refilled with water levels near or above average, but groundwater levels remain low and may take months to recover,” according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.

Even with the unexpected windfall, Western growers are staying vigilant, continuing to scrutinize water availability with more attention than previous seasons. Those who have been around a few seasons know better than to let their guard down.

Rolling with the punches

In early March 2023, the California Department of Water Resources announced sustainability plans for the state’s groundwater basin. The agency recommended approving plans for six California groundwater sub-basins and declared six other plans to be “inadequate.”

“Passage of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in the 2014 drought year was a seismic shift in California water,” California Farm Bureau President Jamie Johansson responded in a news release. “It was never going to be easy to transition on a timeline of just 20 years to eliminate an estimated 2.5 million acre-feet of overdraft a year in our most impacted areas of the state.”

Historic droughts in recent years have shown California farmers that they can’t simply continue the status quo; the state also must invest in a more resilient, 21st century water system, Joahansson continued.

Related news: California fruit growers relieved by projected increase to water allocation

“Our groundwater supplies are critical for California farmers, including vegetable, fruit, nut and dairy producers who account for much of America’s food supply,” Joahansson said in the release. “It is important that California carefully consider solutions that protect both our aquifers and our food production.”

North of California, growing food presents different challenges.

“One of the only constants in farming is that Mother Nature throws curveballs each year in the form of weather,” Stemilt Growers Marketing Director Brianna Shales told The Packer. “We had our coldest spring in a century last year and record heat the year before. Wildfires are something we contend [with] often in Washington state.”

Despite the unpredictable weather and wildfires, the Washington-based tree fruit grower is staying put. Even with weather challenges, the state remains an ideal place for Stemilt to grow fruit because of the arid climate and the available natural resources such as water, snowpack and clean energy from hydropower, Shales said.

“Weather is still going to present obstacles in the future, but water is still a great resource that we have in Washington state,” she said. “Modern orchards have become advanced at using water in prescribed ways, and we will continue to use technology to help us make the best decisions for the fruit and for the land.”

Monitoring water flow in the orchards and at facilities is crucial to conserving the precious resource, Shales said. Soil-moisture monitoring along with precision irrigation from drip irrigation and microirrigation systems target water in exact amounts to the specific trees that need it, she said.

Cultivating climate resiliency for Southwest growers

In the face of what the University of Arizona has called “the worst water crisis in state history,” researchers are offering new farming practices and water policies that they believe can help the Southwest agricultural industry thrive while also sustaining the threatened ecosystem and water reserves in the Lower Colorado River Basin.

The suggestions and approaches were recently presented in an action-focused report, “Toward Water-Resilient Agriculture in Arizona: Future Scenarios Addressing Water Scarcity in the Lower Colorado River Basin.” The report is among the university’s initiatives intended to support Arizona farmers.

The university and three nonprofit organizations received a $4.7 million grant from the USDA in late 2022 to from the Arizona Partnership for Climate-Smart Food Crops, a three-year project that will help farmers throughout the state more rapidly implement climate-friendly solutions that reduce costs while promoting value-added products in the economy, according to a news release.

“This agricultural water crisis is arguably the worst in the Colorado River watershed since Arizona statehood, more than a century ago,” Gary Nabhan, a research social scientist at the Southwest Center, said in a news release. Nabhan is also the Kellogg Foundation endowed chair in Southwestern Borderlands Food and Water Security.

“It is important for the university to find and implement solutions that not only help Arizona farmers, but also assist all others who may soon be impacted by scarce resources and higher prices,” he added.

Nabhan said in the release that changes in water policy have forced farmers to look toward increased groundwater pumping to meet irrigation needs, even though aquifers are already being depleted and pumping is costly. Declining aquifers, combined with rising temperatures, increased salinization of soil, and water loss through evaporation and transpiration add more stress to the water scarcity dilemma for Arizona farmers — even if they don’t rely on surface water.

“These changes are making it increasingly difficult to grow the same crops or use the same irrigation practices that farmers across the desert Southwest have relied on for more than 100 years,” report co-author Erin Riordan said in the release.

To launch a discussion about potential adaptations in the face of the growing water crisis, University of Arizona researchers sent out a 100-question survey in August 2022 to Southwest farmers, ranchers, water policy experts, agroecologists and food systems analysts.

Solutions that address key issues brought by survey respondents and stakeholders were as wide-ranging as the issues themselves and included strategies such as:

Developing a market for reallocating water among agricultural users.
Growing more climate-appropriate crops and native plants.
Developing shaded areas or using solar panels to provide shade for agriculture.

“We hope to demonstrate that there are already potential solutions at hand that will help farmers cut input costs while garnering better prices for their harvests,” Nabhan said in the release.

The report also highlights sources of technical, legal and financial support available to help farmers adapt to an ever-changing climate as well as to shifts in water and energy availability in Arizona.

Nabhan said in the release that the agricultural industry needs to invest in a transition to water- and fuel-efficient practices that serve as economically viable adaptations to long-term water scarcity “and not just in Band-Aid remedies that don’t move the needle.”

“If we can stabilize or increase crop value per acre while cutting water and energy costs, everyone stands to gain over the long haul,” he added.

Will leaving farmland fallow save water in the long run? New Mexico researchers given $2M to find out

Thu, 05 Jan 2023 21:29:45 GMT

As drought risks continue to challenge farmers in the Southwest — where surface water supplies are at their lowest level in at least the past 1,200 years, exacerbating rapid decline in groundwater reserves — researchers are digging for new and better water conservation solutions.

The latest strategy being examined is the potential of fallowing — leaving cultivated land unused for a set period — to save water in agricultural operations. To advance this research, the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research awarded a $970,931 grant to New Mexico State University to work with farmers and water managers to evaluate where and when leaving cultivated land unused is an effective water-saving practice, according to a news release.

The Elephant Butte Irrigation District, NMSU, the New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute and the Thornburg Foundation matched research funding, bringing the total to $1,941,862, according to the release.

“Capitalizing on the technical expertise of farmers and water district managers is essential to driving applied research and credibly informing field operations,” Kathy Boomer, Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research scientific program director, said in the release.

Related news: Senators urge USDA to improve drought support for Western growers

Growers have used fallowing for millennia to manage crops and soils; however, it can also damage agricultural systems if implemented without thoughtful planning. Successful fallowing strategies rely on understanding how crop systems respond to field management and natural changes in soil water content.

Leveraging the experience and knowledge of growers, water managers and hydrologists could improve the understanding of these connections and create a more holistic approach to managing agricultural land management in arid climates.

“While this interdisciplinary research will support water resource management in southern New Mexico, the collaboration process they develop will provide a vital example of how to advance more effective stakeholder-engaged management plans in agricultural watersheds worldwide,” Boomer said in the release.

NMSU researchers are working to develop a hydrologic-agricultural-economic model that evaluates alternative fallowing strategies. The researchers will integrate the hydrologic modeling with remote sensing data, field measurements and socioeconomic information. This integrated data will inform where fallowing can optimize targeted benefits and estimate the cumulative benefits of fallowed fields within the project area.

The researchers will focus on the Mesilla-Rincon Valley in southern New Mexico, where the New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission is currently implementing a pilot program to reduce groundwater pumping through fallowing, according to the release.

Results from this research will inform how much and where fallowing can mitigate water shortage concerns in arid regions. The research team plans to make this project scalable and replicable to other regions by developing best practices for future collaborations, according to the release.

Fairtrade International's virtual banana sends climate change message to UN delegates

Fri, 11 Nov 2022 17:27:55 GMT

Craving a virtual banana? Fairtrade International has the market cornered.

At this year’s U.N. Climate Conference in Egypt, also known as COP27, Fairtrade International has invited fruit and art enthusiasts to enjoy a banana in the metaverse.

Riffing on a recent art trend to sell art virtually through non-fungible tokens, called NFTs, Fairtrade International unveiled its art activation, “The Last Banana,” or non-fungible banana — an NFB, if you will — as a playful stunt, according to a news release.

The virtual banana spotlights the threat Fairtrade International believes climate change poses to future fruit and vegetable production. The punchline? If we don’t mitigate climate change soon, virtual bananas will be the only bananas we’ll have left on the planet, according to Fairtrade International.

“‘The Last Banana’ is Fairtrade’s call to the world that if we don’t step up and achieve inclusive and equitable climate solutions with farmers and agricultural workers at the center of climate action, we risk losing our favorite food products forever,” Melissa Duncan, executive director at Fairtrade International, said in the release.

With an estimated global export value of $7 billion dollars per year, bananas are likely one of the most essential, as the banana trade remains the cornerstone of many countries’ economies, according to Fairtrade International.

According to a 2021 Fairtrade International climate change study, dramatic weather patterns spurred by climate change will likely deliver severe blows to agricultural production in key regions around the world, including Latin America and Asia-Pacific regions. Banana producers in the Caribbean and in Central America, for example, are expected to face less rainfall and more extreme temperatures, while those in Southeast Asia and Oceania regions will see an increased risk of tropical cyclones.

“Farmers and workers are not only on the frontline of the climate crisis, but they also have critical know-how that can mitigate and address climate risks for the benefit of humanity,” Duncan said in the release. “If governments fail to include them in the COP27 outcome and empower them to be the custodians of our planet’s food supply, the only future for one of the world’s most popular fruits may very well be a digital NFB.”

The virtual NFB will be on view during COP27 as a message from Fairtrade International to visiting delegates, underscoring that the future of the global food system is at stake in climate decisions and commitments. The non-fungible banana differs from a traditional non-fungible token as it’s not commercially accessible and doesn’t rely on energy-intensive production.

“The unveiling of a Non-Fungible Banana is a powerful way for us to remind everyone — from global leaders to consumers — that they cannot take their favorite foods for granted. The current climate crisis could very well mean that the last banana is not too far away,” Juan Pablo Solis, Fairtrade International’s senior advisor for climate and environment, said in the release.

“The Last Banana” will be accessible to audiences in Fairtrade organizations around the world and in an NFB’s virtual gallery space online. Visit Fairtrade International’s “The Last Banana” virtual gallery space.

Surviving megadrought, Southwest citrus growers manage water wisely

Thu, 13 Oct 2022 18:52:34 GMT

Growing fruit in the arid Southwest will keep you on your toes. Not only do California and Arizona citrus growers face the challenge of growing fruit profitably in shifting markets, but drought conditions in the southwestern U.S. continue to worsen and affect irrigation. Compounded with the recent account of fellow citrus growers in Florida suffering devastating crop loss due to Hurricane Ian, it’s reasonable to assume that there are many questions weighing heavy in growers’ minds at the start of this winter citrus season.

Navigating drought conditions

Looking ahead to 2023, extreme weather is impacting not only growers recovering from the hurricane in the Southeast, but drought conditions in the Southwest continue to worsen, with no end in sight. The megadrought that grips the Southwest has broken yet another record, according to a study just released from science journal, Nature.

According to the study, 2021’s “exceptional drought severity” tacked on another year to the prolonged, 22-year drought. From 2000 to 2022, the drought has marked the driest period in the Southwest since at least 800 A.D. with the effects of climate change intensifying the severity and adding new challenges to recover from dry conditions.

One major consequence of the drought is reduced water available for irrigating Southwest citrus crops. The Colorado River Basin which irrigates much of the Southwest, including California and Arizona, is currently weathering the effects of the megadrought, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources. Severe drought conditions mean reduced levels in Lake Mead, located on the Arizona-Nevada border, which provides water for seven states. Drought conditions also reduce river flows along with the Lower Colorado River running along the Arizona-California border, further stressing the overallocated Colorado River.

Farmers in California and Arizona are experiencing the driest conditions in the basin and mounting water restrictions are expected to continue well into the future. According to the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, both Lake Mead and Lake Powell in northern Arizona are approaching critical elevation levels and will require unprecedented management actions to protect infrastructure in both the Upper (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) and Lower (Arizona, California, Nevada and parts of Mexico) Colorado River Basins. The shortage assessment is based on the elevation of Lake Mead, which is dependent upon releases from Lake Powell.

Responding to these extreme conditions, The Central Arizona Project, a canal system built by the federal government for Arizona farmers to tap into excess Colorado River water, implemented drought mitigation reductions for Arizona agricultural users in 2022, reducing available Colorado River water by over 60%. Central Arizona Project water users have met nearly all their targeted, Tier 1 level reductions in Arizona, but current projections for CAP users indicate that escalating to a higher, Tier 2 shortage level in 2023 will be necessary.

This means continuing deep cuts to agricultural water available, as well as increasing restrictions to include reducing water available to municipal, industrial and tribal water users.

In California, low levels on the Colorado River are compounded by reduced snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, which supplies surface water for much of the Central Valley. According to the California Department of Water Resources, milder temperatures and limited precipitation are causing early and even mid-winter snow melt. This April, the surface water reached only 38% of its historic average water level.

The most recent drought in California that began in 2020, worsened when California’s Central Valley faced its driest January and February in recorded history. The seasonal pattern that worked so well to supply water in past years relied on storing water from mountain snowpack to release slowly during California’s dry spring and summers. These snowpack reserves are no longer guaranteed.

“This significant decrease in snowpack has a direct impact on water supply for Californians,” according to the California Department of Water Resource. “The warming climate already is making it harder to grow food in some parts of the world, like California , which depends on snow piling up in the Sierra Nevada mountains for irrigation. Climate models predict more serious disruption to global agriculture a few decades in the future because of shifting rainfall and extreme weather.”

Responsible water management

Sunkist has dedicated careful long-term planning as a key component of its sustainability plan, according to Christina Ward, senior director of global marketing at Sunkist Growers . “We remain focused as water supply will continue to be a concern going forward, and labor increases and cost pressures continue to put added pressure on our industry,” said Ward.

Related news: Resourceful farmers adapt to a changing climate, finding new ways to combat pests and conserve water

“Responsible water management is key,” Ward continued. “Citrus farmers have long used the most advanced technology with soil moisture monitors and micro-sprinklers to water trees for just what it needs.”

At Bee Sweet Citrus, “water supplies have been tight, but adequate,” said Keith Watkins, president of farming at Bee Sweet Citrus . “Costs for producing and watering this year’s crop are substantially higher than historic [averages].”

Growers constantly ask themselves “how do I change our practices to accommodate this?” according to Edgar Gutierrez, vice president of farming operations at Limoneira , a lemon grower with ranches in both California and Arizona. What’s more, Gutierrez says responding quickly to changing prices and “scarcity of water, fuels and fertilizer” is necessary to stay competitive.

“All of a sudden, a factor in the product you were selling for a certain price changes and you must quickly adapt to be profitable. But changing practices in the field takes time,” said Gutierrez. “One of the biggest challenges in the farming industry is how do we adapt quickly in the cost model, in order to stay efficient?”

Mighty Earth Attacks Crop Farmers to Advance Anti-Meat Agenda

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:48:49 GMT

A report last week from Mighty Earth , a campaign of the Center for International Policy , took a break from criticizing farmers and ranchers that raise livestock for meat, and instead turned their attention to the meat companies and feed suppliers (ie. crop farmers), asking them to provide “pollution-free” feed.

In “ Mystery Meat II: The Industry Behind the Quiet Destruction of the American Heartland, ” Mighty Earth says “Demand for feed crops is driving widespread water contamination across the country, destroying America’s last native prairies, and releasing potent greenhouse gases.” The report claims excess fertilizer and manure washes off fields, contaminating local drinking water and creating algae blooms that cause Dead Zones in the Gulf of Mexico.

While the agricultural industry does have an impact on these issues (see here and here ), the report does little to quantify agriculture’s contribution to the problem versus other industries.

The article calls out Tyson Foods, charging “America’s largest meat company” is in the “regions suffering the worst environmental impacts from industrial meat and feed production—from grassland clearing in Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas, to manure and fertilizer pollution pouring into waterways from the Heartland down to the Gulf states.”

In a written statement to Farm Journal Media, Tyson responded “We share this group’s concern about the environment but disagree with its misleading characterization of our company. Tyson Foods is not in the business of raising the crops and we own very few livestock farms. Instead, we depend on thousands of independent farmers to raise our chickens or sell us their cattle or hogs. We work closely with our partners from farm-to-fork to identify and deploy new technologies designed to better protect the environment, our workforce, and the communities we serve.”

In an article by the Des Moines Register, Mark Peterson, a farmer near Stanton who has reviewed the report, said it may be impossible to produce “pollution-free feed.” … But farmers can adopt conservation practices — such as no-till or conservation tillage, cover crops, buffers and grass waterways — that reduce nutrient losses.

The negative characterizations of the agriculture industry in the report is a long list. However, it failed to include the fact that crop and livestock production is regulated and monitored by USDA’s Food and Drug Administration or the Environmental Protection Agency. Nor did it mention that many farmers and ranchers participate in quality assurance programs to document animal health and environmentally friendly practices. Tyson discloses its environmental efforts on its website.

Livestock feed is just one use of grain products grown in the U.S. In this chart from USDA, shows the growing market for biofuels, as well as consumer food and industrial uses. Source: USDA

Research in Ag-Tech Top-Of-Mind in Farm Bill Hearing

Mon, 12 Dec 2022 20:03:24 GMT

The Senate Ag Committee met on Tuesday to hear testimony surrounding the need for ag research funding in the coming farm bill. According to Katy Rainey, associate professor at Purdue University who gave testimony, the hearing showed “signs of hope” for ag research.

Representing the American Seed Trade Association , Rainey underscored farm bill ag research and technology funding needs:
• Public-private partnerships
• Better program support in the National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS)
• Regulatory space that allows technology to come to market.

“There is a misconception that the private sector has the basic and applied research needs for row crops,” Rainey said in her testimony. “We rely on the support of farm bill funding and programs to ensure continued U.S. leadership as the provider of the best seed to the world.”

Outside of sharing her own message, Rainey heard four other testimonials as well as questions from senators. While the on-air discussion proved informative, Rainey says she was most intrigued by the conversations happening off-air.

“Senators are concerned with farmers’ bottom line, but they’re also concerned about global events,” Rainey says. “My takeaway from the senators is that there’s actually a hopeful outlook for global food security because there is so much technology. If we can support the research to get that technology to the field or to the plate that could dispel concerns across the board.”

Rainey is confident research funding will come through in the farm bill to deliver that technology.

View Across the Table

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) was also in attendance of the hearing. In Ernst’s view, there are two highlights from the hearing that deserve a spotlight on Capitol Hill.

1. Cybersecurity in Ag

“We know that our adversaries are targeting our farmers [through cyberattacks] and that does affect our nation’s food chain,” said Ernst in the hearing. “What we want to see is additional work in university ag systems through research, education and outreach activities.”

Chavonda Jacobs-Young, undersecretary for research, education and economics at USDA, said the agency is working to deliver on that additional work.

“We first need to raise the awareness for needs in cybersecurity,” she says. “We also need to train — and retain — the generation of professionals who can help us in this space. That involves high-performance computing, AI and cybersecurity.”

Jacobs-Young and Ernst plan to meet and establish a partnership, along with other groups recommended by Jacobs-Young, to make a gameplan for cyber-awareness in rural America.

2. Carbon Credit Opportunities

In the research corridor, Ernst feels there are carbon questions that still need answers.

“I hear about this all the time from Iowa farmers — they want to participate in carbon markets and create healthy soils,” Ernst says. “Getting the right type of information and translating that so producers can measure carbon on their farms and in their production activities is the bigger issue.”

Ernst and Young both agree the outreach chord needs to be reconnected to rural America, but Jacobs-Young isn’t sure what tactic will flip the ignition switch.

“It’s critically important to talk to producers about what they need and how that can be delivered in a way that they will be receptive to,” said Young in the hearing. “Adoption is part of the issue we have. We can develop wonderful technologies, innovations and tools, but we struggle with producers being receptive.”

For her part, Ernst says she’ll work to allocate farm bill funding toward such programs and communicate with Young on ways to relay the program messages to farmers.

Producers with carbon questions can also seek answers in Farm Journal’s Carbon Innovation Center .

More on farm bill 2023:

Rep. G.T. Thompson Lists His 3 Farm Bill Objectives
Opinion: The Value of Partnerships Between the Agriculture and Energy Industries

How table grape growers can prepare for El Niño 2023

Thu, 02 Nov 2023 14:46:11 GMT

Bloom Fresh, a Bakersfield, Calif.-based premium fruit-breeding company specializing in table grapes, cherries and raisins, says it’s taking proactive measures to safeguard table grape production as El Niño threatens vineyards across the globe.

El Niño’s effects vary, bringing extreme heat to some regions while inundating others with heavy rainfall, making it essential to adapt growing tactics accordingly, according to a news release.

“El Niño demands a global strategy to protect table grape crops,” Pietro Scafidi, global research and development manager for Bloom Fresh, said in the release. “Given its diverse impacts on different countries, our mission is to leverage our two decades of expertise and research to assist growers in safeguarding their crops, ultimately yielding top-quality, robust and delicious table grapes.”

Bloom Fresh’s dedicated technical team for table grapes routinely dispatches experts to the 24 countries where the company’s table grapes flourish; they collaborate with licensed growers on-site, sharing knowledge tailored to each region’s specific requirements, the release said.

Related: Sun World launches Autumncrisp campaign with first in-person experiential event

In areas experiencing extreme heat due to El Niño, growers face heightened challenges in irrigation due to increased evapotranspiration rates, the release said. This combined process involves water evaporating from the ground and transpiring from plants, necessitating greater water inputs to maintain vine health. Techniques like netting to reduce water consumption become vital, according to Bloom Fresh.

Scafidi highlights the resilience of certain table grape varietals, such as Sweet Globe, Candy Snaps, Candy Dreams, and Candy Hearts, which have thrived in desert conditions in California’s Central Valley. These successes offer assurance that consumers and retailers will continue to access hardy and tasty table grapes, the release said.

At the same time, varietals like Sweet Celebration, Candy Crunch, Rugby, and IFG Forty-six have exhibited remarkable resistance to splits and decay, even under high rainfall pressures near harvest, according to the release.

For regions anticipating intense rainfall, the strategic use of plastic covers can shield crops effectively, says Scafidi, who emphasizes the importance of proper installation during the rainy season, including row planting distances and the height of the plastic above the canopy, as key factors for success.

Related: Chilean grape exporters expect 5% growth this season

As Bloom Fresh faces climatic challenges head-on, decades of data collection are proving invaluable, the company says.

In 2019, Bloom Fresh launched a digital transformation initiative, integrating data into a unified system. This enhanced system enables the Bloom Fresh technical team to offer more precise recommendations and informed decisions, benefiting both existing fruit varieties and licensees, the release said.

The fruit-breeding company says these capabilities prove particularly valuable during challenging times, whether related to weather or other geopolitical factors affecting the farm-to-table process.

“Our primary objective is to bolster the success of our licensees,” Scafidi said. “The automation of Bloom’s systems and data collection methods delivers a multitude of advantages. The technical team’s expertise is shared throughout the supply chain, benefiting every stage from the field to harvest, packaging and sales.”

Helios CEO talks climate change and AI in agriculture

Fri, 30 Aug 2024 15:38:15 GMT

While California’s fall fruits continue to flourish, the growing unpredictability of weather patterns poses new challenges for farmers. Tools such as artificial intelligence-driven platforms are now at the forefront of helping the agricultural industry anticipate and mitigate these risks, ensuring that future harvests remain abundant and diverse.

To learn more about AI’s potential in predicting agricultural supply chain disruptions, The Packer spoke with Francisco Martin-Rayo, CEO and co-founder of Helios. This AI platform identifies and predicts agricultural supply chain disruptions before they happen. Using billions of signals, Helios can predict how certain fall fruits are impacted by climate risks such as droughts, heat, flooding and more, the company says.

Editor’s note: The following has been edited for brevity and clarity.

The Packer: What is Helios, and how does it work?

Martin-Rayo: Helios was founded in 2022 by former Google and JP Morgan Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning engineers and is the preeminent climate-risk platform to predict agricultural supply chain disruptions and commodity prices. Our mission is to stop food supply shortages before they happen. Using AI, Helios makes information that was previously only available to the largest multinational food companies, available to everyone.

How does Helios use AI to predict agricultural supply chain disruptions?

The Helios platform leverages billions of signals daily, at the most granular level, across 14 million locations. Our risk signals are generated by custom machine-learning models specific to each crop, rather than generic weather information, giving us a unique advantage to predict where and why disruptions are likely to occur. Our team of world-class data scientists uses sophisticated machine learning models to predict, analyze and interpret agricultural trends and risks, constantly evolving and improving in accuracy and effectiveness.

Which California fall fruits are most at risk due to climate change?

We worry most about California’s grape, apple and citrus growers based on some of the broader trends we’ve seen nationally that we’re tracking (e.g., Florida citrus production is down 90%; New York’s apple crops are suffering from winters that are too warm).

Specific to California, we’ve seen the following:

For grapes, we expect to see continued stress here due to higher temperature peaks and less available water to counteract it. This means fewer table grapes for consumers, but it can be good for winemakers (think higher grape quality with plenty of concentration for those oaky chardonnays).
Apples are faring much better in California than in other parts of the country (See last year’s bumper crop.), but we need to continue monitoring hotter winters (worse near the coast than in the Valley). If those trees don’t get their cold “rest” period, they won’t generate as many apples.
Finally, we worry most about California citrus, which is being impacted by hotter temperatures (especially around Fresno). High temperatures can cause citrus fruit to drop, split or sunburn, and they can also affect fruit size, shape, color, texture, flavor and nutritional value.

What kind of data does Helios use to make its predictions?

Helios uses a comprehensive dataset that includes over 20 years of climate-driven data. This data is meticulously curated and analyzed to assess and mitigate risks across the global agricultural supply chain.

The dataset is gathered from a network of weather stations, satellites and environmental monitoring sources, as well as proprietary data collection tools and algorithms developed by Helios’ engineers.

This rich dataset is a vital resource for stakeholders in the agricultural commodity industry. It provides actionable insights and intelligence to inform decision-making processes. Covering over 50 agricultural commodities from various regions worldwide, the dataset includes daily information on factors such as temperature, precipitation levels and local news reports, enabling detailed analysis of agricultural supply chain risks.

How accurate have Helios’ predictions been in the past regarding the impact of climate change on fall fruits?

Helios has historically seen an 80%-plus level of accuracy in predicting agricultural disruptions for fall fruit. For example, last year Peru’s mango crop was down more than 80% due to higher-than-normal temperatures during its winter. The market didn’t realize this was happening until November (when prices went up [sixfold]), but we flagged it to our customers as early as August because our platform predicted this disruption was imminent.

What predictions are there for current fall produce crops?

For grapes, June and July across the state have been unusually hot this year, especially further north from Fresno to Porterville. That said, California has been having really hot summers for the past few years, and the average climate risk this year (27% of all days have been unseasonably hot) is lower than usual, so we expect a decent harvest. To put it in perspective, 2020 saw July have 40% of its days as high risk from being too hot.

In citrus, our platform suggests that the crop faces significant risks due to unseasonable heat (over 100 Fahrenheit) in central California, centered around Fresno, in the months of June and July, with predictions indicating that August will be warmer than normal, while the other regions are within normal ranges. Ideally, these regions will somewhat even themselves out, with lower yields in Fresno but better yields in different parts of the state.

We’re not too worried about apples — all of our apple signals show low-to-mid overall climate risk for the season. One interesting data point is that this year we’ve seen slightly higher temperatures in the winter, but still below the 45 degrees that apple trees need to generate flowers. So, this still bodes well for the fruit trees this season.

How might these climate risks and disruptions affect consumers in terms of availability and prices of fall fruits?

Consumers are often at the “bottom of the food chain” here. What does this mean? Growers and suppliers will always honor their larger multiyear contracts with global CPGs first and give short shrift to the smaller grocers that don’t have these huge contracts. Let’s assume there’s an abysmal apple crop this year. You’ll still be able to get your McDonald’s apple pie (one of the largest buyers of apples worldwide), but you may see fewer apples at your local grocery store, and you’ll see the price go up.

What can consumers do to support sustainable farming practices that mitigate climate risks?

This is such a good question and at the heart of where our food system needs to go. The No. 1 thing consumers can do to help support sustainable farming practices is to support farmers and retailers to waste less. You would be astounded at the amount of food that is wasted, because it’s not “pretty enough” to make it to the supermarket shelf.

For example, we recently visited a lettuce farm in California that grows millions of lettuces that we eat around the country. They discard more than 50% of each head of lettuce — not because they enjoy throwing away potential revenue, but because consumers only want to eat the clearer and “fresher-looking” core and not the darker leaves surrounding it. Once these lettuces make it to your supermarket, it’s a time bomb until they get a little darker or yellow, and then consumers won’t eat them.

Growers expect 40% of the produce they send to supermarkets to get thrown out. That’s right: almost half. So next time you’re in the supermarket, buy the tomato that’s a little soft or the lettuce that’s gone a little yellow.

How does Helios work with farmers, policymakers and other stakeholders to address climate challenges?

We’re about to kick off a pilot project to support farmers in Virginia impacted by changing weather patterns. We envision creating a free software platform that farmers can use to understand how the ecological conditions of their farms have changed over the past 10 years, predict weather patterns for the next decade and identify the best crops and agricultural practices for these new conditions.

Access to this information will significantly enhance Virginia farmers’ ability to increase yields, mitigate the risks of changing weather patterns and support Virginia’s rural communities. Eventually, we’d love to work with the federal government to expand this program and make it freely available to all farmers across America impacted by climate change.

USDA reviews agriculture-related climate change research

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 13:53:38 GMT

The USDA’s Economic Research Service has published a summary of climate change-related research on agriculture.

The research includes examinations of:

The impacts of climate change and weather on crop production, livestock production and international trade.
The implications of climate change for agricultural markets and the cost of government policies and programs.
The potential for agriculture to adapt to changing climate conditions.
The potential within agriculture for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.
The role of USDA farm programs under changing climate conditions.
Drought resilience and risk management.

The USDA said the “ Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment ” finds that global average temperatures over the past decade (2012 to 2021) were close to 2 degrees F warmer than the preindustrial period (1850 to 1899).

“Global surface temperatures will continue to rise until CO2 emissions reach net zero, and surface temperatures are not expected to fall for centuries in the absence of net-negative emissions,” the report said.

Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. have risen by 2.5 degrees F and temperatures in Alaska by 4.2 degrees F since 1970, compared to a global temperature rise of around 1.7 F over the same period. This reflects a broader global pattern in which land is warming faster than the ocean, higher latitudes are warming faster than lower latitudes, and the Arctic is warming fastest of all, the report said.

The report also said that many eastern regions of the country are getting wetter. Average annual precipitation from 2002 to 2021 was 5% to 15% higher relative to the 1901 to 1960 average in the central and eastern U.S., a trend attributable to climate change.

Strong reductions in emissions of both carbon dioxide and non-CO2 greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and nitrous oxide) are required to limit human-induced global warming to specific levels, and globally, CO2 emissions are the largest contributor to climate change, the report said. However, the emissions profile for agriculture differs from that of the overall economy.

The Environmental Protection Agency estimated that agriculture accounted for 10.5% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. U.S. agriculture emitted an estimated 663.6 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2022: 46.6% as nitrous oxide, 41.7% as methane, and 11.6% as carbon dioxide, according to the EPA.

USDA’s publications that consider climate change and agricultural adaptation include:

The USDA’s publications that consider climate change mitigation include:

Helios AI launches supply chain climate audits for global agri-food supply chains

Tue, 05 Nov 2024 13:33:57 GMT

Helios Artificial Intelligence says it has launched its Supply Chain Climate Audits, or SC²A, a product that aims to help companies address the growing climate risks impacting global agri-food supply chains.

SC²A provides procurement leaders with critical insights into how climate change will affect their suppliers and commodities over the next decade, allowing organizations sourcing globally to mitigate supply chain disruptions and adapt to future challenges, according to a news release.

Helios AI said the increasing frequency of catastrophic climate events — such as the record-breaking temperatures, wildfires and rainfall seen across the globe in recent months — has placed unprecedented pressure on global supply chains, especially in the agriculture sector. The company said its platform, powered by 500 billion climate-risk data points and machine-learning models, helps organizations stay ahead of these risks.

“At Helios, we’ve seen the accelerating pace of agricultural disruptions firsthand, from cocoa in Cote d’Ivoire to corn in the U.S. Midwest,” said Francisco Martin-Rayo, co-founder and CEO for Helios AI. “We created our Supply Chain Climate Audits to give procurement teams the ability to proactively climate-proof their supply chains. With our SC²A, companies can make informed decisions on which suppliers to invest in and which to move away from, ensuring they can secure sustainable sourcing in a rapidly changing climate.”

Helios AI said its SC²A offering evaluates the specific climate risks facing an organization’s supply chain based on its supplier locations and commodities. By identifying which suppliers are vulnerable and which could thrive under changing conditions, SC²A enables businesses to make strategic decisions for future procurement, the release said.

For instance, a global juice manufacturer used Helios AI’s SC²A to assess their grapefruit and apple suppliers. The audit revealed that warmer and drier temperatures in Spain would result in sweeter grapefruit juice, signaling an opportunity for the manufacturer to deepen investment in Spanish suppliers, the release said. Conversely, the SC²A advised the manufacturer to move away from certain Polish apple growers due to anticipated lower yields caused by shorter winters and greater frost risk.

Helios AI said its Supply Chain Climate Audits will empower agri-food companies to better manage the risks and maintain a resilient supply chain in the face of future crises.

Organic Trade Association targets climate change on Capitol Hill

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:47:04 GMT

The Organic Trade Association is in the midst of a two-week “Congressional fly-in” to engage legislators on climate change.

From Sept. 21-Oct. 2, almost 60 organic stakeholders representing the diverse organic supply chain are virtually converging on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. to talk about how organic agriculture can be part of the climate change solution, according to a news release.

The unorthodox fly-in, via video conferencing, is necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Organic Trade Association and others in organic industry are attending more than 30 scheduled meetings with lawmakers and their staffs.

“Climate change is a real threat to all of us, and bold policy solutions are required to mitigate the impacts and help farmers and communities adapt to the changing climate,” Laura Batcha, CEO and executive director of the Organic Trade Association, said in a news release. “We are grateful to our members for their engagement, especially as many of them are struggling with the devastating results of climate change in their areas in the form of wildfires.”

The association recently released a report on organic agriculture and its ability to mitigate climate change. It identifies policy opportunities and makes recommendations to elevate organics in the climate change discussion, according to the release.

Congress is showing a renewed interest in climate policy, and momentum for transformative action to prevent the most devastating impacts of climate change is happening now,” Megan DeBates, director of legislative affairs and coalitions for the Organic Trade Association, said in the release. “It’s important that our members reach out to Congress now to begin the important discussions to advance organic in climate policy, and to develop policies that will enable all to benefit from organic’s ability to mitigate climate change.”

Related stories:

USDA proposes organic enforcement rule, suggests user fees

Organic food sales top $50B in 2019, up 4.6%

Organic sector asks for help

Forget Tesla, CA Cars running on Restaurant Grease

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:50 GMT

(Bloomberg) --

California’s battle against climate change is being fought more fiercely in fast food restaurants than in Tesla Inc.’s car factory in Fremont.

Seven years after the Golden State began offering credits to producers of low-carbon fuels, cities and companies across California are using diesel brewed from fats and oils to fuel everything from fire trucks to United Parcel Service Inc. delivery vehicles. Now, the value of the credits exceed those from electric vehicles fourfold and are second only to ethanol.

The company that’s benefited most from California’s embrace of renewable diesel is based 6,000 miles away in Helsinki. Neste Oyj started sending tankers of the fuel from its refineries in Singapore and Europe around 2012. It’s now the biggest supplier, according to Ezra Finkin, policy director at the Diesel Technology Forum, a Frederick, Maryland-based advocacy group.

The market “is definitely growing,” Dayne Delahoussaye, Neste’s head of North American public affairs, said in a phone interview from Houston. “Renewable diesel has become very popular with the refining community as a good tool to meet obligations.”

Renewable diesel generated almost 628,000 metric tons of credits in the fourth quarter of last year, up from about 6,000 in 2011, state data show. The credits, which sold at a six-month high of $91.74 per metric ton in early October, are poised to surge as the state accelerates its carbon cuts to meet its goal of reducing emissions to 30-year-old levels by decade’s end. The price will more than double to $215 by 2019, Irvine, California-based Stillwater Associates LLC said in a June report.

Refiners and other purchasers of the credits have paid almost $650 million for them over the past year, costs that are passed onto consumers at the pump.

The credits will add 15 to 20 cents a gallon to the cost of fuel over the next two years, Leigh Noda, senior associate at Stillwater Associates, said in a phone interview. “Ultimately, these programs are designed to subsidize the price of the biofuel suppliers.”

Renewable diesel is made from organic materials such as plants and animal fat that are processed in special refineries. Unlike biodiesel, renewable diesel can be used without blending because of its similarity to petroleum diesel. Biodiesel can typically compose only a fifth of the blended fuel without harming engines.

In recent years, cities such as San Francisco, Oakland, and San Diego, as well as Sacramento County, have transitioned to using renewable diesel to power buses, fire engines and other city vehicles. Alphabet Inc.’s shuttle buses in Silicon Valley also burn it, and UPS said two years ago that it would buy 46 million gallons of the fuel to run its fleet of delivery trucks.

California Market

California represents more than half of the U.S. market for the biofuel, Diesel Technology Forum’s Finkin said. The state’s appeal for biofuel producers is built on its Low-Carbon Fuel Standard program, which was first implemented in 2011 with the aim of reducing the carbon intensity of California transportation fuels by 2020 to least 10 percent below 2010 levels.

The program allows oil refiners to buy credits from producers of low-carbon fuels, such as biofuel manufacturers, to offset the carbon intensity of the motor fuels they make.

When the program began, ethanol accounted for almost 80 percent of credits generated, compared with about half by the end of last year, state data show. Renewable diesel was the second-biggest generator of credits, followed by biodiesel, compressed natural gas and electricity for powering vehicles.

A court ruling in 2013 effectively froze carbon reductions for two years until changes were made in how the program was implemented. That means that half the cuts will come in 2018 and 2019. For the first time in the program’s history, the number of banked credits fell in the first quarter, as demand measured by credits needed exceeded supplies generated.

Neste sells about 30 percent of its renewable diesel volumes in North America versus 70 percent in Europe, Juha-Pekka Kekalainen, the company’s vice president of investor relations, said in an email.

The cost of producing renewable diesel, not including the expense of feedstocks such as oils and fats, is about $110 a ton, down from $200 a ton a “few years” back, Kekalainen said

Copyright 2017 Bloomberg.

Climate Change Will Diminish Big Bluestem Growth

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 21:29:50 GMT

Climate change is expected to reduce the growth and stature of big bluestem, a dominant prairie grass, by up to 60% over the next 75 years. That’s the consensus of scientists from Kansas State University, Missouri Botanical Gardens and Southern Illinois University collaborating on a study published in the peer-reviewed journal Global Change Biology.

“Our results predict that climate change could greatly impact the tallgrass prairie as we currently know it, reducing forage for cattle in the drier parts of grasslands, place like Kansas,” said Loretta Johnson, professor of biology at Kansas State.

Big bluestem is a common grass in natural and restored prairies across the central Midwestern region that includes Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Missouri and Iowa. Big bluestem is readily in found Kansas’ Flint Hills, a region of tallgrass prairie covering 9,936 square miles. The region’s economy is largely dependent on agriculture and cattle ranching.

Big bluestem – or Andropogon gerardii – can grow to four to six feet tall, but the researchers found that could be reduced by up to 60%. As a result, the form of big bluestem that grows in the central Midwest could come to resemble the form that currently inhabits eastern Colorado on the edge of the species’ range. The tall forms of big bluestem could shift to the Great Lakes region where the grass is currently less common.

The research team, in addition to Johnson, included Mary Knapp, associate agronomist and state climatologist; and Jacob Alsdurf, master’s student in biology. They found most of the change was because of alterations in rainfall that are expected to occur across the area, not because of increase temperatures.

The authors are concerned the dramatic reduction in size of big bluestem foretells a fundamental shift in the nature of the Midwestern grassland ecosystem.

“Because big bluestem is currently a dominant grass species of the Great Plains and makes up to 70 percent of the plant biomass in places, how the ecosystem works could be affected by predicted changes in growth of this species,” Johnson said.

“It was said in the past that the tallgrass prairies were so tall that a person riding a horse could literally get lost,” said Adam Smith, assistant scientist in global change at the Missouri Botanical Garden. “Big bluestem is an iconic species in this system owing in part to its stature. If smaller forms come to dominate it could cause a fundamental shift in the habitat and ecosystem services prairies provide, such as forage for cattle.”

Big bluestem grass can live several decades, so prairie restoration projects will need to consider the form of plants that would thrive at a site several decades into the future, researchers said.

The analysis also highlights the effects of climate change on common species that typically are not expected to be as vulnerable to anticipated climate change. Worldwide, 1 in 5 plants is already on the brink of extinction and climate change is only expected to add pressure on species struggling to survive. This study indicates that common species also may be vulnerable, researchers said.

Small Scale Farming to Large Scale Agriculture: The Move Toward Environmentally Friendly Practices

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:03:46 GMT

By Kathryn Cawdrey

DES MOINES, Iowa — Conservation agriculture is critical for modern farming. With pressures from climate change and the need for sustainability, smallholder farmers and large corporations are implementing new, environmentally friendly farming practices.

Members from One Acre Fund, Farm Journal Foundation and DuPont shared their stories about the positive impact of conservation agriculture through their own individual practices on sustainability, profitability and resilience.

Jenya Shandina, business development manager of One Acre Fund, said One Acre aims to facilitate a higher income and a lower climate impact for smallholder farmers in rural Africa. One of the first conservation practices One Acre Fund teaches to the farmers, Shandin said, is composting decayed organic matter, such as banana peels or coffee grounds, that can be used to treat soil. One Acre Fund hopes composting will help move the needle on climate change because the farmers won’t waste any piece of food.

“These are the people who will be impacted by climate change the most,” Shandina said.

Medium-sized farms can also use conservation techniques, such as the 10,000-acre Dee River Ranch in Alabama and Mississippi owned by Annie Dee.

Dee is the lead Alabama farmer for the Farm Journal Foundation’s Farm Team Program, and she says she represents the average “mid-scale” farmer. She’s the first farmer in her family and believes that’s the key to her success. Dee didn’t stick to traditional farming practices just because “my grandparents did it this way,” she said.

Constantly seeking to test new practices that save the environment and money, Dee uses no-till farming. This technique increases earthworm populations and the amount of organic matter while retaining nutrients in the soil and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Another conversation farming technique Dee uses involves the planting of diverse cover crops, which reduces erosion and compaction, improves soil structure and increases organic matter. Cover crops are solely for soil improvement — they’re planted but are never harvested and sold.

The cover crops Dee planted has attracted hungry visitors. Dee began receiving calls from people who wanted to pick her cover crops, and she easily obliged. Word spread, and people up to 60 miles away come to pick the produce. At thanksgiving, Dee and her daughter also donated produce from the fields to others.

“We had enough for the soil, the deer and for us,” Dee said.

Corporations, such as DuPont, are beginning emphasize similar conservation goals as One Acre Fund and Dee River Ranch

Dawn Rittenhouse, DuPont’s director of sustainability, said the company produces a drought-resistant corn hybrid that can rely on rain instead of irrigation. The corporation also teaches farmers when and where to use fertilizer, placing a special emphasis on illustrating the right amount of fertilizer to use. Too much fertilizer causes run-off, Rittenhouse said.

Solutions that work well in the U.S. may not work in Africa, Rittenhouse said, so it is important to think locally when implementing new technologies..

“There is a science to feeding the world,” Rittenhouse said.

This story is published in collaboration with the University of Missouri. Read more about their reporting project at the World Food Prize here.

California Cows Latest Target in Climate Regulations

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:03:33 GMT

GALT, Calif. (AP) - California is taking its fight against global warming to the farm. The nation’s leading agricultural state is now targeting greenhouse gases produced by dairy cows and other livestock.

Despite strong opposition from farmers, Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation in September that for the first time regulates heat-trapping gases from livestock operations and landfills.

Cattle and other farm animals are major sources of methane, a greenhouse gas many times more potent than carbon dioxide as a heat-trapping gas. Methane is released when they belch, pass gas and make manure.

“If we can reduce emissions of methane, we can really help to slow global warming,” said Ryan McCarthy, a science advisor for the California Air Resources Board, which is drawing up rules to implement the new law.

Livestock are responsible for 14.5 percent of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, with beef and dairy production accounting for the bulk of it, according to a 2013 United Nations report.

Since the passage of its landmark global warming law in 2006, California has been reducing carbon emissions from cars, trucks, homes and factories, while boosting production of renewable energy.

In the nation’s largest milk-producing state, the new law requires dairies and other livestock operations to reduce methane emissions 40 percent below 2013 levels by 2030. State officials are developing the regulations, which take effect in 2024.

“We expect that this package ... and everything we’re doing on climate, does show an effective model forward for others,” McCarthy said.

But dairy farmers say the new regulations will drive up costs when they’re already struggling with five years of drought, low milk prices and rising labor costs. They’re also concerned about a newly signed law that will boost overtime pay for farmworkers.

“It just makes it more challenging. We’re continuing to lose dairies. Dairies are moving out of state to places where these costs don’t exist,” said Paul Sousa, director of environmental services for Western United Dairymen.

The dairy industry could be forced to move production to states and countries with fewer regulations, leading to higher emissions globally, Sousa said.

“We think it’s very foolish for the state of California to be taking this position,” said Rob Vandenheuvel, general manager for the Milk Producers Council. “A single state like California is not going to make a meaningful impact on the climate.”

Regulators are looking for ways to reduce so-called enteric emissions - methane from the bodily functions of cows. That could eventually require changes to what cattle eat.

But the biggest target is dairy manure, which accounts for about a quarter of the state’s methane emissions.

State regulators want more farmers to reduce emissions with methane digesters, which capture methane from manure in large storage tanks and convert the gas into electricity.

The state has set aside $50 million to help dairies set up digesters, but farmers say that’s not nearly enough to equip the state’s roughly 1,500 dairies.

New Hope Dairy, which has 1,500 cows in Sacramento County, installed a $4 million methane digester in 2013, thanks to state grants and a partnership with the local utility, which operates the system to generate renewable power for the grid.

But co-owner Arlin Van Groningen, a third-generation farmer, says he couldn’t afford one if he had to buy and run it himself.

“The bottom line is it’s going to negatively impact the economics of the California dairy industry,” Van Groningen said of the new law. “In the dairy business, the margins are so slim that something like this will force us out of state.”

State officials say they’re committed to making sure the new regulations work for farmers and the environment.

“There’s a real opportunity here to get very significant emissions reductions at fairly low cost, and actually in a way that can bring economic benefits to farmers,” Ryan said.

Growers can use technology to alleviate climate change effects

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:24:59 GMT

MIAMI BEACH, Fla. — By working together with the latest tools, researchers believe growers can help manage some of the effects of climate change and perhaps someday get paid for their efforts.

Speaking Jan. 10 at The Packer’s Global Organic Produce Expo, a panel of experts looked at advances in management tools that could help organic growers deal with the challenges of mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Moderated by Todd Linsky, of Todd Linsky Consulting , the panel consisted of Dorn Cox, research director for Freeport, Maine-based Wolfe’s Neck Center for Agriculture & Environment, and organic specialist Erin Silva, assistant professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

With his work at Wolfe’s Neck Center, Cox said he focuses on the links between improving soil health and the beneficial role that agriculture can play in the environment, he said.

“We really see agricultural science as a shared endeavor and agriculture as a shared human project,” he said. “And so we’re creating an environment where we’re linking producers and researchers and the general public together to help understand this larger world.”

The center aims to provide the best possible science from an open technology ecosystem to help farmers take site-specific action.

“We are at an amazing point in human history where we have some of the tools that you (once) could only dream of in science fiction novels, that are accessible and democratized for almost any farmer on earth, and yet we have yet to harness those together,” he said.

Cox said the Wolfe’s Neck Center is bringing in large food companies, top research universities and tech companies in a collaborative effort to help achieve that.

“As I like to say that agriculture is not rocket science,” he said. “It’s actually far, far more complex.”

Climate change and the greenhouse effect of increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are framed as “scary” issues to the public, but Cox said growers can play a role in managing carbon levels in the soil.

“There are more than four times as much carbon in biomass and the soil than there is an atmosphere, and 10 times more than in the oceans,” he said. “Small changes in how we manage the soil through agriculture can have very large effects.”

In fact, changes in organic matter in the soil appear to be ten times more important than greenhouse gas emissions in the rest of the supply chain, or putting up solar panels or running electric tractors.

“Pay attention to the big picture, changes in how we produce (crops) have very large effects,” he said. “Part of improving agricultural production can essentially substitute biology for inputs, thus reducing input and production costs.

“I think we have a unique opportunity here as organic agriculture producers to take action,” he said. “It is something we can do and I think it is something that the public can embrace.”

Agriculture and climate change

Silva said that studies have estimated that agriculture accounts for about 24% of greenhouse gas emissions, and that leaves out electricity the sector uses for lighting greenhouses, for example, or the energy required to produce synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Organic farming can help reduce the effect of some of those “embedded” emissions in the production process, she said.

Dorn agreed that organic farming can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“There is a lot of direct emissions from agriculture, and I think the real opportunity is carbon capture, or increasing organic matter in our agricultural production systems,” he said.

That can be done cost effectively, he said. In fact, growers could potentially be compensated for playing a role in reducing emissions.

If farmers quantify and collect data on their roles in improving water quality, carbon capture, flood mitigation, biodiversity, and pollinator habitat, it is possible they could get compensated for those efforts, he said.

Related content:
GOPEX delivers energy, insight into organic produce
Panel discusses food safety expectations for produce suppliers
GOPEX retail panel takes global look at organic produce

Climate Change Gave Some Farmers a Gift this Year

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:02:39 GMT

Climate change is usually talked of as a negative, and it often acts accordingly through more weather volatility and more extreme weather events. But occasionally, climate change gives farmers a helping hand.

Case in point – take a look at Kansas. In 2015, the growing season (as defined as the time between the last spring freeze and the first fall freeze) averaged 193 days across the state, which is almost 20 days longer than typical, according to Chip Redmond and Mary Knapp with Kansas State University’s Weather Data Library. Kansas farmers saw both a longer frost-free spring and fall, they report.

“The average final spring reading of 32 degrees F or less was April 18, a week later than the climatology average of April 11,” they note. “The 2015 fall freezes averaged two weeks later than the climatological average of October 28.”

Redmond and Knapp note results varied widely by individual location. Cheyenne County, in the northwest corner of the state, had a 131-day growing season – 26 days less than average. Meantime, Chautauqua County in the southeast part of the state saw a 231-day growing season – 28 days more than average. That’s a 100-day difference just across Kansas.

Gene Takle, director of Iowa State University’s Climate Science program, says this trend has not just benefited Kansas farmers. A longer growing season has been observed in many other areas, too.

“There have been pluses and minuses. It’s a mixed bag,” he says. “Climate has been favorable enough on balance to help yields the past 15 years. But if these trends continue, those gains are at risk.”

California Drought Transforms Markets as Growers See Dry Future

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:00:21 GMT

For more than 70 years, Fred Starrh’s family was among the most prominent cotton growers in California’s San Joaquin Valley. Then shifting global markets and rising water prices told him that wouldn’t work anymore.

So he replaced most of the cotton plants on his farm near Shafter, 120 miles northwest of Los Angeles, and planted almonds, which make more money per acre and are increasingly popular with consumers in Asia.

“You can’t pay $1,000 an acre-foot to grow cotton,” said Starrh, 85, crouching to inspect a drip irrigator gently gurgling under an almond tree.

Such crop switching is one sign of a sweeping transformation going on in California--the nation’s biggest agricultural state by value--driven by a three-year drought that climate scientists say is a glimpse of a drier future. The result will affect everything from the price of milk in China to the source of cherries eaten by Americans. It has already inflamed competition for water between farmers and homeowners.

Growers have adapted to the record-low rainfall by installing high-technology irrigation systems, watering with treated municipal wastewater and even recycling waste from the processing of pomegranates to feed dairy cows. Some are taking land out of production altogether, bulldozing withered orange trees and leaving hundreds of thousands of acres unplanted.

“There will be some definite changes, probably structural changes, to the entire industry” as drought persists, said American Farm Bureau Federation President Bob Stallman. “Farmers have made changes. They’ve shifted. This is what farmers do.”

Commodity Crops

In the long term, California will probably move away from commodity crops produced in bulk elsewhere to high-value products that make more money for the water used, said Richard Howitt, a farm economist at the University of California at Davis. The state still has advantages in almonds, pistachios and wine grapes, and its location means it will always be well- situated to export what can be profitably grown.

That may mean less farmland in production as growers abandon corn and cotton because of the high cost of water. Corn acreage in California has dropped 34 percent from last year, and wheat is down 53 percent, according to the USDA.

Cotton planting, Fred Starrh’s one-time mainstay, has fallen 60 percent over the decade, while almonds are up by more than half.

On its own, California would be the world’s ninth-largest agricultural economy, according to a University of California at Davis study. Shifts in its production reverberate globally, said Dan Sumner, another agricultural economist at the school.

‘Big Deal’

“It’s a really big deal,” Sumner said. “Some crops simply grow better here than anyplace else, and our location gives us access to markets you don’t have elsewhere.”

The success of California agriculture was built in large part on advances in irrigation that allowed the state to expand beyond wheat, which flourishes in dry climates. It’s now the U.S.’s top dairy producer and grows half the country’s fruits, vegetables and nuts.

“Water has allowed us to grow more valuable crops,” Sumner said. “Now, we have fruits and vegetables and North Dakota grows our wheat. Without irrigation, we’d be North Dakota.”

An estimated 82 percent of California is experiencing extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Agriculture has been hard hit as it consumes about four-fifths of the water that isn’t set aside for environmental preservation. Some farmers are paying as much as 10 times more for water than what it cost before the drought.

Farmers Adapt

Another dry year in 2015 is a strong possibility, according to a study by the University of California at Davis released last month. The same study pegs drought-related farm losses at $1.5 billion, with 17,100 jobs lost statewide.

Groups such as the California Citrus Mutual and California Farm Bureau Federation have been calling for bigger allocations from the state’s watersheds for agriculture, asking the state to add storage capacity and ease environmental regulations that set aside water to preserve endangered species.

That puts the farmers on a collision course with environmentalists and urban advocates who say some choices -- such as a switch to almonds -- could worsen the scarcity.

Almond Crop

California grows four-fifths of the world’s almonds, much of it for overseas markets. That has pushed the price up to more than $3 a pound, a record that has encouraged farmers to divert water from other crops.

Almonds use enough water to supply 75 percent of the state’s population, according to Carolee Krieger, president and executive director of the California Water Impact Network, which supports bigger supplies for cities. Much of the crop is exported, meaning it isn’t even feeding Californians, she said.

“Farmers should be profitable, but it can’t come at the expense of urban water ratepayers,” she said.

The U.S. Interior Department’s Bureau of Reclamation, which supplies water to a third of the state’s irrigated farmland, cut off California water distribution to some areas, while leaving others with 75 percent or less of their normal allocation.

Shawn Stevenson, who grows 1,200 acres of orange and olive trees outside Fresno, is in a zero-allocation area.

Bulldozed Branches

Unable to obtain affordable water for his trees, he hired a bulldozer to uproot about 400 acres of orange trees. He called his farm the “canary in the coal mine” for California agriculture, part of the 500,000 acres being abandoned this year, according to the University of California at Davis.

“We’re going to deliver 25 percent of our volume this year,” Stevenson said over the crunch of bulldozed branches. “That impacts the packing house, the people who sell the fruit, the people that we buy pesticides and fertilizers from.

‘‘If this persists in the next year, the devastation we will see here and across the state will be biblical.’’

Faced with chronic dryness, farmers have been figuring out ways to adapt. Starrh’s drip-irrigation system was pioneered in Israel and is now widely employed across California, cutting water use by supplying plants with smaller, targeted amounts.

‘‘Farmers have done a remarkable job, scrambling around to get every piece of water they can,’’ Sumner, the University of California economist, said. ‘‘They’ve taken water out of rice, out of alfalfa and moved it into onions and carrots and kept the trees and vines alive.’’

Pepper Plants

Will Terry grows peppers and strawberries in Ventura County, a region 60 miles west of Los Angeles that produces about $700 million of the fruit annually. The farm he runs with his father now uses about two-thirds of the water it used 20 years ago.

‘‘People will try to grow the same things, but they’ll have to change how they do it,’’ said Terry as workers draped string across fields with which to hold up pepper plants.

Brad Scott, a dairy producer near Riverside in the Los Angeles suburbs, supplies his farm with treated municipal wastewater. The chlorine makes his ranch smell a bit like a swimming pool, but it has allowed his property to disconnect from the city water supply.

The disruption is worthwhile: Dairy prices reached an all- time high of $24.31 per hundred pound in April as export demand pushed dry-milk shipments to a record.

Spraying Animals

The drought has put special pressure on ranchers raising livestock, drying out pasture land and making it more costly to cool the herd by spraying the animals with water.

Brian Medeiros, a 26-year-old dairyman near Hanford, about 30 miles south of Fresno, is replacing the fields of corn and wheat he grows to feed his cows with sorghum and triticale, a heartier wheat and rye hybrid better suited for drought.

Medeiros drives past a shed containing almond hulls and distillers’ dried grains--the byproduct of ethanol and brewery production -- and citrus pulp, all of which he buys from nearby vendors to feed his cows. Leftover pomegranate has been a herd mainstay, though less so as the consumer craze for antioxidants has faded, reducing the number of suppliers.

He’s also working with an engineer to create a cow-motion sensor. The system, deployed in his animal stalls, would change how animals are sprayed with water to keep them cool, ensuring that water only sprays while a cow is present.

‘‘You have to look at everything,” Medeiros said between conversations in Spanish with his father, who founded the farm, on his cell phone.

Fewer Cherries

A warmer climate is forcing Cindy Lashbrook to phase out cherries on the organic farm where she also grows walnuts, blueberries and other fruits and tree nuts near Merced, about 100 miles southeast of San Francisco.

Her cherries require 1,000 hours of temperatures under 45 degrees (7 degrees Celsius) between November and February, an amount her farm hasn’t seen for several years. “We don’t get the fog like we used to.”

Howitt, of the University of California, said the drought means the state’s farmers will have to permanently reduce water usage.

“California needs to rebalance its agricultural portfolio in response to this drought,” Howitt said. “You will see more fallowing of land. We have to reduce our water footprint.”

That means drip-fed trees for Starrh, a cotton-grower since when his family arrived on 30 acres in 1936 who now focuses on nuts.

And solar panels.

The Starrhs are leasing 480 acres to a sustainable-energy company on land that may never be watered again.

“It was good land for production,” he said. “But reality dictates.”

California’s Brown Negotiates $7.2 Billion Drought Bond Deal

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:00:21 GMT

Governor Jerry Brown and California Democratic lawmakers enlisted business support of a $7.2 billion plan composed mostly of new bonds for water storage and delivery to drought-stricken cities and farms.

Brown, a 76-year-old Democrat, was joined today by the heads of the California Farm Bureau, the state Chamber of Commerce and California Alliance for Jobs in urging legislators to put the bond measure on the November ballot.

At least two-thirds of the assembly and the senate must agree by the end of tomorrow if the $6.995 billion in new debt is to go before voters. The remaining $200 million would come from previous sales. The money would finance projects to store, recycle and deliver water to population centers in Southern California and to protect against floods.

“Water is the lifeblood of the California economy,” Allan Zaremberg, chief executive officer of the state Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement released by Brown’s office. “We need our elected leaders to come together to find the right balance between addressing our water crisis and reining in debt.”

More than 80 percent of California is in extreme drought, according to the federal U.S. Drought Monitor. Three years of below-normal precipitation have reduced 10 of the 12 major reservoirs to less than half their capacity, according to state Water Resources Department data. Communities from San Diego to the Oregon border are restricting lawn watering, car washing and whether restaurants serve water to patrons.

Compromise Plan

The $7.2 billion plan is a compromise between the governor and lawmakers. Brown had previously urged legislators to limit the spending to $6 billion, saying it was what the state could afford.

Whittled down from an $11.1 billion package awaiting a vote since 2010, the proposal includes measures to fund reservoirs and restore the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta ecosystem.

“Governor Brown and the legislature have worked hard to revise the water bond to provide sufficient funds for water storage and other priority issues,” U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, said yesterday in a statement. “I hope members of the legislature act quickly to place it on the ballot and I will do all I can to help get it passed this November.”

The biggest allotment in the package would devote $2.5 billion to storage, such as dams and reservoirs. Senate Republicans argued for $3 billion in storage projects, and Brown last week proposed $2 billion.

‘Critical’ Supply

“We will not settle for a water bond that doesn’t provide a critical and sustainable water supply,” Senator Andy Vidak, a Hanford Republican, said in an Aug. 8 statement from the Republican caucus in the upper chamber.

The agreement with Brown would replace a proposal developed in 2009 by lawmakers and then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Brown called the 2009 measure “pork-laden” and said it would add $750 million a year to the state’s $8 billion annual debt service.

California’s borrowing costs for general-obligation bonds have dropped this year as a recovering economy lifts revenue above Brown’s projections. Taxes and fees collected in July came in 4.5 percent above expectations, Controller John Chiang said yesterday.

The extra yield that buyers demand to own 10-year California debt rather than top-rated securities narrowed to 0.22 percentage point this month, the smallest since at least the start of 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

How Climate Variability Affects Crop Yields

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:01:10 GMT

So many factors affect your crop’s final yields. A new report from researchers at the University of Minnesota Institute on the Environment (IonE) has found that climate variability may be one of the biggest disruptors in crop yields.

Historically, the IonE says climate variability is responsible for 32% to 39% of year-to-year yield variability in corn, rice, wheat and soybeans. That’s the equivalent of 36 million metric tons of food each year.

Researchers analyzed production statistics from around the world between 1979 and 2008 and matched it with corresponding precipitation and temperature data. The team used this data to calculate year-to-year fluctuations and estimate how much was due to climate variability.

IonE’s finding varied among regions. Climate variability was highly influential on crop yields in high-production regions but was less of a factor in low-yielding regions.

“This means that really productive areas contribute to food security by having a bumper crop when the weather is favorable but can be hit really hard when the weather is bad and contribute disproportionately to global food insecurity,” says Deepak Ray, senior scientist with IonE. “At the other end of the spectrum, low-yielding regions seem to be more resilient to bad-weather years but don’t see big gains when the weather is ideal.”

That means parts of Asia and Africa show little correlation between climate variability and yield variability, Ray says. On the other hand, climate variability can affect yield variability by as much as 60% in regions that include the U.S. Midwest, the North China Plains, western Europe and Japan.

Next, the team will look at historical records to see if yield variability attributed to climate has changed over time.

“Yield variability can be a big problem from both economic and food supply standpoints,” Ray says. “The results of this study and our follow-up work can be used to improve food system availability around the world by identifying hot spots of food insecurity today, as well as those likely to be exacerbated by climate change in the future.

For more information, visit environment.umn.edu . And join this controversial conversation on climate change on the AgWeb discussion boards .

Indiana University Places $55 Million Environmental Bet

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:24 GMT

A new initiative, Prepared for Environmental Change, is the latest project funded through Indiana University’s Grand Challenges Program. IU plans to invest $55 million to develop actionable solutions for Indiana farmers, communities, businesses and individuals.

According to IU President Michael McRobbie, the Hoosier State has already witnessed patterns of heavier spring flooding and hotter, dryer summers. Less obvious environmental changes are also afoot, he says, such as changes to growing seasons and migratory patterns, risk of soil loss and an uptick in diseases such as Lyme disease, Zika and West Nile virus.

“Environmental change has been a constant through history,” McRobbie says. “Our state is not immune to changing environmental conditions, and these may cause major changes for some of th estate’s most valuable assets and industries.”

The initiative will establish an Environmental Resilience Institute, which will work with IU faculty, Indiana businesses, nonprofits and others to collect data and begin to organize research activities that address environmental change.

McRobbie says the size and scope of these changes demand extensive private- and public-sector collaborations, which IU is uniquely equipped to facilitate.

Meantime, Karen Cecil, director of global environmental sustainability at Cummins Inc., says meeting environmental challenges deliberately and directly is key to preserving the long-term health of the state’s communities and its economy.

“The success of Indiana’s advanced manufacturing industry depends on natural resources and a complex global supply chain that’s put at risk by environmental change,” she says. “That’s why initiatives like this one that help us adapt to these pressures are so crucial to our state, our business and our way of life.”

And according to IU distinguished professor of biology Ellen Ketterson, the institute isn’t interested in debating partisan differences concerning climate change or speculate about potential future climate and environmental challenges.

“We’re here because we can already see the year-round effects of the changes in our environment,” she says.

Research will focus on protecting a resilient water supply, reducing flooding risk, enhancing carbon sequestration, improving the wildlife corridor and revitalizing local economies. A research team will also pilot a farming program that can better forecast soil and water conditions.

For more information about IU’s Grand Challenges Program, visit https://grandchallenges.iu.edu/ .

Seeding The Sky: Can Scientists Manipulate The Weather To Benefit Agriculture?

Thu, 18 Aug 2022 20:04:04 GMT

Growing population centers and increasing resource demands are pushing scientists in search of additional water sources. Desalination, drilling water reclamation and deep aquifer exploration are often the first draws from the well of ideas. However, technology seeks to tap atmospheric rivers, bringing rain and the promise of renewal.

Weather modification is the pursuit of technology or land management practices that ultimately alter, support or encourage a preferred atmospheric outcome. It can be done to improve or encourage rainfall; increase mountain snowpack; and suppress hail, lightning and flooding.

“People have almost a primordial urge to try to control the weather,” says Andrew Detwiler, president of the Weather Modification Association . “It’s been in the human psyche for millennia, but what we think of today is much more modern.”

Weather modification is happening already. At least 10 states are currently seeding clouds or studying its possibility to help support cities and continue agricultural production.

(Farm Journal)

ARID EXPANSION

Meteorologists and climatologists often say drought begets drought and there’s at least some evidence a causal loop is forming. A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences raises the possibility of a climatological precipice in the southwestern U.S. as a drought that started in 1999 and continues to expand. The authors worry about the brink becoming the baseline.

In 2022, variable Sierra snowpack, dwindling Colorado and Rio Grande river levels, a vanishing Great Salt Lake, falling well levels along the Ogallala and the slow disappearance of the nation’s largest reservoir of Lake Mead all com-bine to flash warning signs that farming, or even living west of the nation’s dryline, is a generational uncertainty.

WATCHING THE CLOUDS

Heat soaks through the soles of Carlon Stapper’s boots as they crunch across the landscape of loose rocks and stubble, baking in the monochromatic expanse of the west Texas Edwards Plateau. A herd of goats shuffle away hunting new slivers of shade beneath the relentless summer sun.

“There’s nothing growing at this point,” Stapper says. “There’s no grass and even some of our brush didn’t leaf out this year.”

His ranch, in western Crockett County along the Pecos River, raises Angora goats, which are typically well suited for the region’s climate. This year they’re feeding a protein supplement because of the drought.

(Farm Journal)

“I wholeheartedly believe in the technology,” says Stapper, a 10-year board member of the West Texas Weather Modification Association. “There just haven’t been many opportunities because to enhance the clouds, we have to have clouds first.”

TECHNOLOGY TAKES FLIGHT

The dull drone of the engine buzzes the sky as a yellow air tractor sets its sights just below a cumulonimbus cloud puffing its cauliflower shaped lungs toward the heavens.

Mounted just off the wing’s trailing edges are rows of nozzles — pistols ready to fire a positively charged mist of water into the sky. As the airplane feels the tug of the cloud’s updraft, the seeds of another Texas rain are sent charging through its core.

“If you introduce the right kind of particles into this supercooled area of the cloud, they can cause water droplets to freeze and additional ice crystals to form from excess water vapor in the cloud,” explains Detwiler, also a longtime university professor in North and South Dakota. “When you have a mixture of ice particles and cloud droplets, the liquid drops evaporate, and the ice particles grow becoming big enough to precipitate out.”

The reality of weather modification has long been wisps of foggy science promising on-demand solutions while delivering statistical maybes or anecdotal actualities. First developed after World War II, cloud seeding has been attempted off and on for decades.

“We have long-term statistical evidence from Idaho Power that cloud seeding has put more snow in the mountains,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions.

(Farm Journal)

FLARES AND LASERS

Traditionally done with wing- or rocket-mounted silver iodide flares, new technology is finding its way into the industry.

In Dubai, scientists are trying lasers mounted on drones to coax excited water particles together ending with their fall from the sky. In Texas, teams are trying calcium chloride flares.

“These particles are very hygroscopic. When you release them into a cloud, they attract moisture very quickly,” says Jonathan Jennings, meteorologist for the West Texas Weather Modification Association.
In addition, Jennings has been working with Dan Martin, a research engineer with USDA’s Agricultural Research Service, to test a recently patented technology using water .

“We’re using tap water, but we’re charging it as it exits the nozzle,” Martin says.

These experts say seeded clouds average between 5% to 15% more precipitation flux (how hard and how much it rains) compared with the non-seeded counterparts. In early trials, Martin’s positively charged water is beating that number.

“We’re seeing about 25% to 30%,” he says. “That is just from the initial data set, and we hope to at least confirm that this year.”

Long-running droughts has communities in the U.S. and abroad giving cloud seeding a fresh look. Jennings sees it as a long-term water management strategy to help bank water supplies in wet years, so it is available during years with less rain.

“If we can take an area that gets maybe 5" of rain a year and turn that into 10" a year, then you change the game,” Martin adds.

It’s also less expensive than other freshwater systems, such as desalination, reclamation and aquifer pumping. Jennings says their studies show 1 acre foot of water seeded by traditional silver iodide flares costs less than $10 compared with desalination at $2,000 or more.

CLOUDED IN CONTROVERSY

Since its inception, altering rainfall via cloud seeding methods have been controversial.

“There’s a budget to moisture; if it’s taken anywhere along the path, then you’re only left with your local recycled moisture,” Snodgrass says.

Jennings says they aren’t taking rain from one place to give to another, they’re simply enticing the clouds to rain more when they do.

“What we’re doing allows clouds to grow larger and last longer, anywhere from a 15-min. extended lifetime in small clouds to upward of 45 minutes in larger clouds,” Jennings says.

He’s also adamant they aren’t making it hail. In fact, Martin’s new charged water project is being tested for hail suppression in North Dakota.

“Every year there’s $10 billion in property damage due to hail; $1 billion of that directly affects agriculture,” he says. “Our system converts the cloud moisture into rain and with less water available you get pea-sized hail rather than golf-ball sized hail.”

MODIFIED FOR GOOD

Intentional or not, humans have helped shape today’s weather patterns. Now they’re looking at technology to protect their future. These experts say rather than spotty coverage in a handful of states, a well-funded and nationally coordinated approach would have a bigger impact.

“If you can provide more rainfall on arable land for crops then, hopefully, we can increase yield from the limited area we have available,” Martin says.

That’s what Texas rancher Stapper hopes as he eyes his brown pastures.

“We’re learning more and doing a better job with the clouds all the time,” he says. “We can’t do anything else to get rain other than this and pray.”

...............................................................

Restoring the Sinai

The Weather Makers is a group focused on regenerating the ecosystem in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula .

“Back in the day, 4,000 to 8,000 years ago, it used to be quite a green oasis,” says Pieter van Hout, a stakeholder manager with The Weather Makers.

If the Egyptians approve, the plan is to dredge Lake Bardawil, desalinate those soils with plants and freshwater in hopes of returning that soil to the land where plants can start to grow again. Essentially, Van Hout says, you restart the region’s water cycle: “If you have the right amount of vegetation then you have enough moisture in the air, and then you have enough to condensate and come down as precipitation.”

The Weather Makers point to the Loess Plateau in China. Once brown and degraded, it’s now a lush green valley where plants and animals thrive.

“The proposition is not that the entire planet can be green,” van Hout says. “It’s about degraded landscapes because those you can regenerate.”

(Farm Journal)

Read More

Greening the Desert: Dutch Researchers Work to Restore Sinai Peninsula

USDA Scientists Testing New Cloud Seeding Technology

Farm Journal Editor Clinton Griffiths is a TV newsman turned magazine editor with a passion for good stories. He believes the best life lessons can be found down a dirt road.