Crop Conditions

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:31 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Artificial Intelligence Joins The Fight Against Weeds, Insects And Disease

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 13:53:42 GMT

The crop protection industry needs a reboot, according to Tony Klemm.

As CEO of Enko, a crop-protection startup, he says the company is taking a different approach to solving one of agriculture’s biggest problems – developing safe, effective and sustainable crop protection products that can be brought to the marketplace faster and more economically.

Traditional discovery pipelines for herbicides, fungicides, insecticides are not keeping pace with real challenges farmers face, such as resistance issues, he told Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk on Thursday.

A 2024 study funded by Crop Life International reports the costs associated with bringing a new active ingredient to major U.S. and European markets now top $300 million. In addition, the survey says the average lead time between the first synthesis of a new crop protection molecule and its subsequent commercial introduction is now over 12 years.

Part of the long development time required is related to regulatory hurdles. “There’s just increasing demand for meeting environmental safety needs, rightfully so,” Klemm says.

A Paradigm Shift
Enko, based in Mystic, Conn., is using artificial intelligence (AI) and a machine learning discovery platform to guide the company’s research and development efforts. Klemm describes the strategy as a paradigm shift from the current industry practices for how small molecule crop protection discovery has been done.

“We use DNA-encoded libraries, and these libraries allow our scientists to explore this massive, diverse chemical space in a very targeted, automated and expansive way,” he says.

The technology allows Enko scientists to look at billions of molecules and screen them for safety and efficacy and, in the process, develop them faster and more economically.

“We still have to take the regulatory journey that, right now, no one’s figured out a way to expedite,” he notes. “But getting to that regulatory queue faster and better on the front side is really what’s bringing us that cost savings, that efficacy and is going to allow for more products to be put into the regulatory queue in a faster manner.”

Progress To Date
So far, Klemm says Enko has delivered about 50 active programs that cover all facets of weeds, insects and disease. Many use novel or new modes of action that Klemm believes will help farmers fight resistance issues, such as herbicide resistance in Palmer amaranth and pigweed.

“We’re really working on how we can bring new modes of action to farmers, give them fresh tools to win that fight. And our chemistries work using fewer active ingredients, from perspective of the load on the acre, so we’re designing safer chemistry for the future,” he says.

Specifically, Klemm says Enko recently announced a new grass herbicide is in the pipeline for the European cereals market for control of black grass. The company also has conducted field trials for corn and soybean products in the U.S. that he anticipates are five to 10 years away from market launch, depending on how long they take to move through regulatory channels.

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Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:47 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

John Deere-Sentera Tie Up: Here’s What We Know So Far

Tue, 27 May 2025 15:40:37 GMT

John Deere has announced its acquisition of Minnesota-based aerial optics innovator Sentera. Although specific details are few and far between this early in the process, here’s what we know so far:

The two companies have a long history. John Deere was the first enterprise customer Sentera signed onto its system over a decade ago, and the two companies have had an API link in place between Sentera’s drone management software and John Deere’s Operations Center since 2016.
Financial details are not being disclosed. We do know the deal is not subject to any further regulatory or shareholder approvals.
In a similar fashion to the Blue River Technologies and Bear Flag Robotics acquisitions, Sentera will maintain its independence as a free-standing business unit. Once fully integrated into the Deere family, Sentera will operate under the John Deere Intelligent Solutions Group (ISG) framework. Sentera leadership will remain at its St. Paul, Minn., headquarters.
For the time being, no major changes are planned for either company as we head into the heart of the summer crop scouting and spraying season. The two companies anticipate having more details to share about the nuts and bolts of the acquisition this fall.
The two groups are a natural fit. Sentera is aggressively marketing its SmartScripts drone weed mapping program, and the technology is complimentary to John Deere’s Operations Center and its See & Spray and ExactApply application technologies. One driving force behind this deal, Farm Journal is told, is Deere’s motivation to integrate more real-time agronomic data into its Operations Center platform, and Sentera’s aerial data capture capabilities can help make that happen.

(John Deere)

A deal to lift both boats. John Deere has built up a deep bench of artificial intelligence, machine learning and autonomous technology expertise within ISG, and Sentera has a long track record of aerial sensing and camera payload innovation. Considering how many cameras and sensors are included from the factory on new John Deere machines and within its Precision Upgrades retrofit kits, there should be a healthy cross pollination of sensor and camera innovation between Urbandale, Iowa, (where ISG is based) and St. Paul, Minn.
Sentera can help make See & Spray even better. SmartScripts uses drone-based imaging to scan a field and build a weed pressure map which is then loaded onto the sprayer’s in-cab computer. Now the sprayer operator can see exactly where weeds are in the field and focus their spraying efforts there first. There’s also a logistical and planning aspect to SmartScripts: by knowing exactly how many weeds are present in the field, and even what type of weeds are there, an adept operator can have the right active ingredients premixed and the exact amount needed loaded into the tank or staged nearby in a tender truck to keep that sprayer running all day long.

“Farming is becoming a very sensor and data-centric business, and in our opinion, there isn’t anyone doing it at broad scale today better than John Deere,” says Eric Taipale, chief technology officer, Sentera. “The way we can bring these data-driven insights and improve grower outcomes — it’s just what we’ve always been about. It’s what John Deere is all about. There’s such a great mesh between the two cultures, the objectives and the mission of the two organizations.”

Joseph Liefer, global technology marketing lead at John Deere, adds, “We’re excited about how this complements our existing portfolio with See & Spray, and then not just that (product). Now a farmer with an individual nozzle-controlled sprayer from any manufacturer can also leverage this technology. A drone can fly their field, generate a weed map, turn it into a prescription in Operations Center and the machine can go execute the plan. From an ag retailer standpoint, that might have a mixed fleet, and this gives them more tools in the toolbox to do targeted application for growers and help them save on herbicide. We view this deal as complementary to our overall tech strategy.”

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It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:11:21 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:42:29 GMT

It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.

The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.

Moisture over the past 7 days shows areas of Texas through Wisconsin have seen the highest amounts of rain.

(Pivotal Weather )

Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.

“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.

The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

The next two weeks are advertised to produce above normal precipitation in the Great Plains and in this first week in the upper Midwest as well. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.

Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.

“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.

The percipitation anomalies compare March through May in 1968 to March through April in 2025.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.

“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”

Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.

These are some of the differences expected this spring and summer relative to those of 1968.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:

Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest

The summer of 1968 was wetter biased in the western and north-central U.S., while most of the Atlantic Coast States and a part of the eastern and southern Midwest were drier. While World Weather, Inc. does not believe the parallel between these two years will be quite as great this summer as it is now, but some of these tendencies should be expected.

(World Weather, Inc. )

Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.

“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”

The springs of both this year and 1968 are going to be quite similar, according to Lerner, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.

“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.

Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.

The official summer outlook may soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central high Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.

What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.

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Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 12:23:44 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

California's Drought Situation So Dire Growers are Plowing Under Fields

Fri, 14 May 2021 14:09:14 GMT

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor didn’t show any good news for the West. Drought still covers the entire state of California, with areas of exceptional drought expanding in the southern and eastern Sierra due to very poor snowpack.

Snowpack runoff is forecasted to be well below normal and reservoir storage levels at Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville are 48% and 41% of average, which is bad news for farmers who need irrigation this year.

The situation is so bad, it’s forcing farmers to take drastic measures. The owner of Del Bosque Farms in the San Joaquin Valley plowed an asparagus field under due to a lack of water.

It’s a really sad day. We’re destroying a field of organic asparagus. No assurance of CVP water for irrigation this summer. Dozens of jobs will be gone next year. It’s a sacrifice to keep our organic melons going. #CAwater #CAdrought #farms #foodloss #ag #jobs #farmworkers pic.twitter.com/ecQjiZOyNH
— Westside Farmer 🚜🍉🍈 (@JoeDelBosque) May 11, 2021

Federal and state water projects say they will provide little to no irrigation water to many agricultural customers, so farmers must calculate how much food they can grow with their limited supplies. That news is what forced Joe Del Bosque to plow under some of his fields.

The situation is dire for California farmers, and the reservoir picture is bleak.

“We’re down to one inch of snow pack,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “We’ve lost 17 of 18 inches already just in the last six weeks, a really accelerated melt. And the worst of that is not all that’s even reaching the reservoirs. We could be below 10 million acre feet of storage by the end of summer heading into the fall, making it really imperative to have a good year next year, or we’re going to be running the risk of seeing some of these reservoirs literally running dry.”

Rippey says generally speaking, California gets very little rainfall from now until October. The news comes as reports also surfaced productive orchards are being removed in the Central Valley. One Fresno County farmer says he’s pulling out almost 400-acres of almond trees.

As Heat Builds, Current Drought Conditions Already Exceed Devastating 2012 Season

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 18:54:28 GMT

Drought conditions in the West are continuing to expand...and hotter temperatures aren’t helping things. The trek of drought conditions started in January, and it’s continuing to build.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows 61% of the country is seeing some level of dryness with more than 21% in the D3/D4 category. That compares to the same week in 2012 when 52% of the U.S. was under some level of drought, and 3% of the country experienced D3/D4 conditions. a comparison also shows drought conditions in California are much more severe

(Farm Journal)

Heat started building over the weekend and will continue to heat up this week. The climbing temperatures are not good news for areas already dealing with that drought.

“As you can see by the jet stream already as we start this Monday, intense heat through the Southwest on up into Colorado, reaching all the way into the mountains of Montana and into North Dakota,” says Mike Hoffman, AgDay meteorologist. “But look what happens as we head through the middle of the week. In fact, by Thursday, we’re cutting down that ridge a little bit into the far northern mountains and the Northern Plains. And the models are indicating that everything starts to get shoved back southward. That would be a little bit of relief from all the intense heat as we head into the following week. So let’s say a week from now, at least, that’s what we’re hoping at this point, and that’s what all the models are showing.”

The extreme dry weather impacting the western part of the U.S . could soon have economic impacts across the entire country, especially when it comes to food prices. The drought is already causing major disruptions to the ag industry.

10% of Contiguous U.S. Experiencing Exceptional Drought, Highest Since 2011

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 18:53:08 GMT

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows nearly 10% of the contiguous U.S. is now under an “exceptional drought,” which is the highest the rate has been since 2011.

Right now, California, Oregon, Utah and Nevada are entirely under drought conditions, as a look at how the drought has changed over the past year shows just how intense the drought has become in the West. And with a dome of heat hanging over much of the country this week, it could make drought matters worse.

(Farm Journal)

Monday’s Crop Progress Report from USDA showed soil moisture conditions continue to decline. Just over half of the country soil’s are considered to have “adequate” soil moisture, while 38% of the country is experiencing soil moisture conditions in the “short to very short” categories.

The Cost of Drought

As surface water disappears, one California water district says it’s causing the prices to soar for the limited water resources left.

“Because the entire state, or almost all of the state is in an exceptional drought, everyone is trying to buy surplus or emergency water, what’s left on the market, but it’s bidding the price up-and-up,” says Gary Kremen, vice chair of the Valley Water Board of Directors .

It’s not just the West Coast dealing with a lack of rain, the entire upper Midwest is also dealign with dryness, which is sparking concern for Wisconsin farmers.

“We do water it, but it evaporates and dries up right away that’s one of the challenges we’ve been having,” says Shawn Fideler, of Fideler Farm in southeast Wisconsin, who grows fresh produce such as berries and vegetables.

Wildfire Worries

The dryness is also creating more concerns for a very active wildfire season. California has already seen a 26% increase in wildfire activity. This year has already produced a 58% increase in acres burned compared to last year, and last year ended up being the worst wildfire season in history for California.

This Week's High Heat Brought On By Ridge of High Pressure, Is It a Warning Sign of What's to Come?

Thu, 16 Jun 2022 14:45:25 GMT

Record-breaking heat across the South and Midwest. Unprecedented flooding that shuttered Yellowstone National Park this week. Hail that proved to be devastating to corn fields in Kansas. The extreme weather can all be attributed to a ridge of high pressure parked over the country.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says while the ridge of high pressure is parked over the country, it has been shape shifting the past few days.

“This year, 2022, it does appear that we have a rather intense ridge of high pressure,” says Rippey.

Rippey says nearly every year the U.S. sees a ridge of high pressure developing across the country, but where this particular ridge is located, and how pronounced it ends up being, is what changes from year to year.

“You’ve got years like 1988, 1995, or 2012, where that ridge intensifies, moves across the Midwest and causes huge implications for corn and soybeans,” says Rippey. “Other years like 2011, we’ve got a powerful Ridge, but it stays parked over Texas and Oklahoma and New Mexico. Other years, we don’t have much of a ridge at all, it’s weaker, and it doesn’t really have major impacts on any major agricultural areas.”

Cacti in our corn field, sheesh this actually is the desert 🌵🌵 pic.twitter.com/fkaPrJWG2e
— Jason Birkenfeld (@jasonbirkenfeld) June 14, 2022

This year, he says there were early signs the ridge would be severe, as Texas saw triple digit heat earlier this year.

“We saw it become established over the desert southwest, it’s made a run across the great plains now more recently into the Midwest, the mid-South, and even the Southeast with early triple digit heat, that in fact is maybe a bit of a warning sign ,” explains Rippey.

The U.S. Just Broke a 27-Week Drought Streak, But Forecasts Don't Look Promising

Fri, 03 Jun 2022 15:46:25 GMT

Less than 50% of the continental U.S. is in moderate- or D1- drought conditions for the first time since November. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor showed a slight improvement in drought conditions across the U.S., but forecasts show drought could grow over the summer months.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the 27-week streak in drought conditions means the all-time record of 42 weeks during 2012/2013 still stands. However, the drought picture isn’t pretty in the West, with another streak still on the record books.

“We have edged below 50%. The national number at this point coming in at just under that 50% mark, but we still have another streak going and that is more than 40% of the country and drought. That streak has now reached 88 consecutive weeks going all the way back to late September of 2020. And that is far and away in all-time record previous record was also set during the drought of 2012 and 2013 of 68 consecutive weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

Recent rains have blanked the parts of the Plains, partially easing some drought concerns, but Rippey says the rains in the Southern Plains may not last.

“I wish I had better news on the outlook for the south-central and southwestern United States,” says Rippey. “But unfortunately, indications are that we could regrade or reverse back into a hotter, drier pattern as we move into the mid- to late summer. We have certainly seen some encouraging signs across the Southern Plains in May and even into early June. The longer-term outlooks indicate that heat and drought will continue to be a problem in the mid- to late summer.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says that means some of the recent improvements in the drought monitor may have been lost due to triple-digit heat, as well as strong winds. The forecast shows more heat and wind for those areas in the near-term.

“I was looking at some forecasts for the next seven days and triple-digit heat will plague much of Texas, with purple-shaded areas expecting high temperatures of 104 degrees F or greater,” says Rippey, in talking about the latest GFS weather model.

Rippey points out the latest Crop Progress report shows a stark drought picture still sitting in Texas with:

70% of Texas ranch land and pastures rated very poor to poor;
more than 40% of the cotton and grain sorghum rated very poor to poor;
and 29% of the corn and cotton rated very poor to poor.

“With the rains beginning to fall in some of those areas, there is hope we can turn things around. The plants are young. There is a chance to reverse some of the earlier problems there. But it’s going to take more rainfall. If it cuts off again, we’re not going to see things come back,” says Rippey.

“Another thing to point out is that we continue to deal with these periods of excessive heat very early in the season across the south-central United States. Even though we’ve seen rain and continue to see rain in Texas, the heat is going to come roaring back this weekend back into the triple digits,” he adds. “And that unfortunately offset some of the positive effects of the rain that has been falling in West Texas.”

Rippey says he’s not ready to say there will be a return of the 2011 growing season, where consecutive days of triple-digit heat, along with severe drought, robbed farmers of their crops. However, he is concerned about the early heat and what it could mean for overall crop yields this year in the area.

(Farm Journal)

U.S. now has a nearly 90% chance of seeing El Niño this summer

Fri, 19 May 2023 20:02:44 GMT

La Niña’s punishing drought left scars that will be etched in the minds of farmers in the West and Plains for years to come. As El Niño looks to make its grand return, significant weather changes could be on deck for U.S. farmers this year.

USDA’s May crop production forecast already incorporated some of the positive weather developments, penciling in record national yields of 181.5 bu. per acre for corn yield and 52 bu. per acre on soybeans.

“The thing you’ve got to remember about the new crop balance sheet is that everything in all of the new crop balance sheets is contingent on weather,” said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “USDA is assuming normal or favorable weather in regard to crop production.”

The biggest change is El Niño, which is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Forecasters at NOAA are watching the weather transition closely, and watching the timing of when the full weather development will hit the U.S.

“The signs of El Niño development that we saw last month have only grown stronger this month,” NOAA said in a blog post this week . “Additionally, we’ve pushed one more month through the dreaded spring predictability barrier. Taken together, these signals have allowed forecasters to increase their forecast confidence this month, with the likelihood of El Niño approaching 90% by summer and exceeding 90% through next fall and winter.”

NOAA says the April average sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region, which is the primary monitoring region for ENSO, was 0.1 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, which covers 1991-2020. NOAA says that value is up 0.2 degrees Celsius from March and is the first time the monthly Niño-3.4 temperature was warmer than average since April of 2020.

While most headlines highlight how it can bring historic heat around the globe, agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says it also tends to bring favorable growing conditions for crops in the Midwest.

“Should it manifest itself and be the most dominant, what we call teleconnection in the pattern, we would likely be seeing a better year overall,” said Snodgrass, the Principal Atmospheric Scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions.

Will the summer weather be like any other in history? Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, cautions farmers to be careful, because it all depends on timing.

“The El Niño for 2023 will be developing and not established which is why we [World Weather, Inc.] believe the drier bias may be farther to the west in the Midwest this year due to the strong influence of negative PDO and the more underdeveloped influence from El Niño,” he said.

As El Niño continues to creep into the picture, Snodgrass says El Niño summers tend to produce strong crop yields.

“Since 1970, we’ve had 17 El Niño summers and 14 of them had trendline yields slightly above that. This means we generally think of El Niño summers of having a more juicy atmosphere, or more stuff for thunderstorms, so we’ll keep a close eye on it,” he says.

That greenhouse-like growing weather won’t be the case across the U.S. Lerner says the summer will likely have a warmer and drier bias across the Plains, the western Corn Belt and into the Great Lakes region.

“Shots of cooler air will move through the eastern Midwest in late May, late June and late August. The west may cool down for a little while, but it should heat back up faster than the eastern Midwest,” says Lerner. “The northern Plains will be wetter biased in the balance of May and early June with the wetter bias shifting to the west and north during July and August. That should favor Montana, western and northern Dakota and areas to the north. The southern Plains (favoring Texas) will be a little wetter biased in late May and early June and again during August and September.”

Lerner said the states he’s most worried about in terms of summer moisture are Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas He thinks the best chance of moisture could fall across northern Plains, upper Midwest and eastern most corn belt, the southeastern states, the lower Delta, Texas and a part of southern Oklahoma.

“There is a strong association with abating multi-year La Niña events that occur in this solar cycle with negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with below average Midwest precipitation,” Lerner said. “This trend tends to occur in most spring seasons when these conditions have been present. However, the bias tends to be more significant in the central and eastern Midwest than in the western Midwest. Western Midwest weather tends to be wetter in these years than areas farther to the east and we are likely to see a short-term increase in western Midwest precipitation in the balance of May until the summer ridge evolves and begins to prevail.”

Weather Impacts 2017 Global Wine Production

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:50 GMT

(Bloomberg) --

The world may produce the least wine this year in half a century, after small grape harvests in Italy, France and Spain, a global wine organization said. That could mean higher prices for bulk and entry-level wines.

The global 2017 vintage is estimated to slump 8.2 percent -- equivalent to about 3 billion fewer bottles -- to 246.7 million hectoliters, the Paris-based International Organisation of Vine and Wine said. That would be the lowest since 1961, according to Jean-Marie Aurand, the intergovernmental group’s director-general.

“Logic dictates that for entry-level wine, there will be a bit more tension on prices,” Aurand told reporters in Paris. “We’re past the time where we had structural overproduction of wine; the market is more balanced.”

The group, known by its French acronym OIV, puts the value of the global wine industry at about 75 billion euros ($88 billion). Countries with large grape harvests, such as Australia and South Africa, will probably be more active in the wine trade this season, Aurand said.

World wine consumption in 2017 is expected to be around 243.2 million hectoliters, according to the OIV. The forecast excludes wine used annually for distilling into spirits, making vinegar and industrial purposes. Production in recent years means there are sufficient stocks to avert shortages of wine and alcohol, Aurand said.

Italy alone accounts for half of the drop in global wine volume, with the country’s 2017 vintage predicted to slump 23 percent, according to the OIV. French output may fall 19 percent, and Spanish production is expected to drop 15 percent.

“The main reason is the freeze that affected the vineyards of western Europe,” Aurand said. “Add to that the rather dry summer, and you have the two main reasons for the decline.”

U.S. wine production may slip 1 percent, according to an OIV estimate based on U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The effect of the wildfires in California is expected to be “very limited,” with most of the grape harvest already in the cellars, Aurand said.

Volumes in Australia, the world’s fifth-biggest wine producer, are seen 6 percent higher, while Argentina’s production may rebound 25 percent, based on the OIV’s estimates.

Copyright 2017, Bloomberg

Changes to reporting methods cloud mushroom statistics

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:22:23 GMT

The volume of sales for the U.S. 2018-19 mushroom crop is pegged at 846 million pounds, down 3% from last season in comparable states, according to a December report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The value of sales for the 2018-19 mushroom crop totaled $1.13 billion, according to the USDA. That is down slightly from the previous season for comparable states. The average reported price was $1.34 per pound, up 3 cents from the previous year’s price for comparable states.

According to the updated report, brown mushrooms (portabella and crimini) saw increases in both volume and value of sales from 2018 to 2019.

Sales volume increased 2.7%, and the value of sales rose 6.3%.

The USDA said specialty mushrooms saw a decrease of 2% in overall production, though shiitake sales increased 12% from 2018.

In August, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Services released its annual mushroom report, but the way it collected and reported mushroom data was changed, making it difficult to make accurate comparisons, according to the American Mushroom Institute. The December mushroom report from the USDA resolved some of that difficulty by comparing the same eight mushroom-producing states for both years, according to the American Mushroom Institute.

“These updated data points confirm what we’ve been seeing in the industry over the past year,” American Mushroom Institute Executive Director Rachel Roberts said in the release. “Mushroom growers face increased production costs such as climate volatility, protracted labor policy issues, changes in consumer preferences and transportation expenses.

“They are increasing their efficiencies in the growing houses by expanding their precision agriculture practices, research and data collection to continue to meet the growing demand for mushrooms,” she said in the release. “We’re grateful to NASS for providing these data highlights that allow the industry to more accurately see its trends.”

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Rain, hail take out some of the Vidalia onion crop

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 18:36:29 GMT

Heavy rains and hail storms during Vidalia growing season, plus typical spring harvest rains, have cut a chunk out of the season’s yield, but harvesting hasn’t been delayed more than usual.

Since Vidalia shipping officially started April 16, some growers had 5 to 7 inches of rain, which stopped harvest for a couple days, but that’s not unusual, said Bob Stafford, Vidalia Onion Committee manager.

The April 25-26 weekend wasn’t rainy, so the soil has dried out, and it’s back to business as usual, he said.

The real kicker was the March rains before harvesting began, Stafford said.

“They sat in the water for awhile. It did stop the sizing, but we’re still going to have a marketable amount,” Stafford said. “Overall, we’re expecting to be down some with our yield volume, maybe 20%, but it’s hard to tell right now.”

The Vidalia region of southeast Georgia typically produces five to seven million bushels of Vidalia onions , he said. Expect more medium-sized Vidalia onions this season.

Generation Farms, Vidalia, had some hail during harvest that damaged some of its crop that hadn’t been harvested yet, said Lauren Dees, sales and marketing manager. The farms had five inches and four inches the last two weeks of April, but it’s dried up and harvesting has resumed, she said.

Hail at the start of April caused a loss of about 85 acres, or about 10% of the total crop.

The late April rains weren’t too bad, however, Dees said April 27.

“It has made it aggravating to get in the fields for harvest, but it looks better this week with open weather,” she said.

Related news:

How COVID-10 is affecting the Vidalia onion industry

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Losses Reported to North Carolina's Sweet Potato Crop

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 20:59:30 GMT

60% of U.S. sweet potatoes are grown in Eastern North Carolina, but farmers there have seen yields decimated now by two hurricanes. Heavy rains saturated fields just ahead of harvest. Hines Family Farms near Selma says early estimates put losses around 15%. Farmers say they won’t know for sure how much damage is in the field until the potatoes are harvested and packed. The biggest issue may show up later in the form of a shorter storage life. Our thanks to North Carolina Farm Bureau for helping with this report.

California May Usurp Florida's Crown as U.S. Orange King

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:33 GMT

It’s been a miserable few years for Florida’s orange crop. And now to add insult to injury, California is gearing up to steal the sunshine’s state crown as the king of U.S. citrus production.

After a decade of the citrus-greening disease devastating Florida oranges, Hurricane Irma smashed into groves this year, inflicting yet another blow to the crop. Farmers in the state are set to collect 46 million boxes of the fruit this season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday. That would be the smallest since 1945 and would match California’s harvest. A box weighs 90 pounds (41 kilograms) for Florida, and California changed its weight since 2009-10 to 80 pounds.

Michael Sparks, chief executive officer for Florida Citrus Mutual, the state’s largest grower group, expects the situation for the crop “to get worse before it gets better.” If that’s the case, and California ends up with the bigger crop, it would be the first time in 73 years the state would best Florida.

“We think the actual size of the 2017-2018 crop will not be known until the season is over and all the fruit is picked” in the early summer, Sparks said. In October, the group said the crop could be as low as 31 million (90 pound) boxes, or about 2.79 billion pounds, while the current estimate for California points to a crop of 3.68 billion pounds.

Most of the oranges grown in California are used for the fresh fruit market, while Florida’s fruit is generally used to make fresh juice.

The El Niño Effect: Is El Niño to Blame for the Historic Heat and Drought that Gripped the U.S. in 2023?

Tue, 02 Jan 2024 22:10:01 GMT

2023 was a year full of weather impacts on crops and livestock. From the intense heat in the South to the drought that parked itself across the South and Midwest, USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says those are the two weather events that stole headlines this past year.

“When we look back at 2023, I’m actually going to break heat and drought into two separate categories,” says Rippey. “Really, when you look at the extreme heat this past year, it was focused across the deep South from Arizona to Florida, and pretty much everywhere in between. And that was certainly a huge weather story that affected parts of the cotton belt.”

From wiping out a large part of the cotton crop in west Texas to hitting sugar cane production in Louisiana, Rippey says nearly the entire deep South saw impacts of the year’s extreme heat.

“Of course, that came with drought in many cases. But when you look at these overall temperatures, the hottest summer on record and a lot of hottest months on record, that was a big story in the deep South,” says Rippey.

While other parts of the U.S. still had drought, in some areas it didn’t pack as big of a punch because it came without the heat. That was the case in much of the Corn Belt. The drought hit last year without the extended intense heat, which had a big impact on crops.

“We were very fortunate, especially in the Corn Belt, that we did not see the combination of extreme heat and drought at the same time. And that actually led to some of those better outcomes than expected for U.S. corn,” explains Rippey.

With USDA currently projecting the 2023 U.S. corn crop to be the largest on record, Rippey says the mild temperatures are what helped save the crops.

“You do see that things actually turned out better in states like Iowa. When you look at the rainfall numbers, they were abysmal, almost as dry as 2012. But then the heat just wasn’t there. And today’s varieties are little bit more tolerant of drought and heat. And the outcome was a little better than we expected,” says Rippey.

It wasn’t all good news. While crop yields turned out better than expected for some farmers, the lack of moisture continued to dwindle grazing conditions and hay stocks in 2023. Those created additional hurdles in rebuilding the shrinking U.S. cattle herd.

So, what was the culprit that caused the intense heat that suffocated the South during the summer months? Rippey says while it’s still being studied, he thinks it’s tied to one major weather event in 2023, in particular.

“I will go out on a limb and say that that may have been an early sneak attack from El Niño ,” says Rippey. “The reason I say that is that because we did have an early onset El Niño. It was pretty much in place by late spring, early summer. It’s pretty consistent with El Niño to have a big ridge of high pressure that comes out of Central America. And at times, we’ve seen it before, that does sometimes extend all the way into the southern tier of the United States.”

He says El Niño can also be tied to the shipping crisis that wreaked havoc on exports in 2023, causing massive shipping delays, as well as forcing shippers to carry lighter loads.

“And certainly what happened in Mexico and parts of Central America, think about the Central American drought that’s causing shipping problems in the Panama Canal. A lot of that, I think, could be tied to the heat in the atmosphere related to the early onset El Niño,” says Rippey.

According to Rippey, the drought in the Midwest can be attributed to the blocking high pressure that wouldn’t budge across Canada this past spring, summer or fall.

“The U.S. Midwest happened to be on the southern end of a lot of that high pressure over Canada. So when we think about that, think about the Canadian wildfires, all the smoke coming down. And we were just on the southern edge of that in the Midwest,” Rippey explains.

He says that, along with Northeasterly winds blocking moisture from the Gulf, is what caused the drought in the Midwest.

“At the same time, high pressure was far enough north that the heat and unusual warmth were actually focused across Canada. So, it wasn’t all that hot on the southern end of the high, but it was dry. And that led to that cool drought in the western Corn Belt,” he adds.

El Niño is still in play, as Rippey says El Niño made a splash once again to close out 2023.

“Now that El Niño has kicked in, it’s a strong event, it could be one of the strongest on record,” says Rippey. “We’re seeing that influence of El Niño starting to grab a hold of the reins of U.S. weather patterns. And that’s pretty normal and certainly should continue into early 2024.”

What’s on tap for 2024? Rippey forecasts the intense El Niño will lead to what he calls “pretty profound” impacts for the rest of the winter, and even into spring.

Losses Reported to North Carolina's Sweet Potato Crop

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 00:12:08 GMT

Are Farmers Losing Yield? The High Heat's Potential Impact on Midwest's Crops

Mon, 31 Jul 2023 14:12:04 GMT

It’s no secret this week’s heat is gripping the Midwest. Forecasts started fueling commodity prices last week as crops in portions of the Midwest were forecast to see the most challenging weather yet this year . Now that the heat is here and expected to remain through the weekend, analysts say crop conditions are expected to dip in USDA’s report on Monday.

“The heat and forecasts impacted corn, soybeans, and spring wheat prices, it was across the board,” says Dan Basse of AgResource Company. “It was that hot of Montana all the way up until Nebraska and stretching over to Illinois.”

Temperatures are forecast to top 100 degrees and rains remain spotty. Earlier this summer, condition ratings seemed to be in a free fall, but July’s rains and cooler temperatures caused conditions rebound, but the heat to close out July means crop conditions could be set to take another dip.

“We believe crop conditions will be done 2% to 3% on Monday for corn, soybeans and spring wheat, we’ll see how it all plays out,” he says. “But it’s the weather during August that will be the big determinant and especially for the soybean crop.”

USDA’s Crop Progress on Monday showed the U.S. corn crop is rated 57% good to excellent, steady from the previous week. Soybeans dropped 1 point with 54% rated good to excellent. The notable declines were to the crop in Tennessee, Minnesota and Missouri.

Forecasting Yield

With the mix of rains and continued drought, AgResource Company is has revised its yield forecast.

“As we look at it, we’re sitting today at about a 173 bu. per acre corn yield. We’re looking at soybeans around 50 and a half, we’ll see how Mother Nature treats us going forward,” says Basse. “That’s down from USDA. It’s not a disaster, but it’s truly not the kind of crop we could have had.”

Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing says he’s been impressed with crop conditions, especially in the eastern Corn Belt. His travels took him from Ohio to Nebraska this week.

“Along the interstates, at least, the crop looks better than I anticipated would,” he says. “It was more consistent to corn. Corn is almost uniformly pollinating, although there is an area in Indiana, this is clearly behind.”

He says the soybean crop seems to be shorter in height, but still showing good canopy.

“I only saw a couple of fields when it was 95 degrees on Wednesday that were showing some stress,” says Brugler. “Now, having said that, I know there’s areas off the interstate that are worse.”

He says some producers he works with have talked about concerns with the smoke cover and the impact on sunlight to soybeans. However, others seem to think the cloud cover is cushioning the crop from the heat.

“It’s a mixed bag, but I would say, we’re in the 174 bu. pre acre to 175 bu. per acre yield range on corn based on current conditions,” says Brugler. “And the standard deviation was still allow 179 or 180 bu. per acre if we have a good finish to the corn crop.”

He says his current estimate for soybeans is a little over 50 bu. per acre, but not 52 bu. per acre that USDA currently has penciled in. He adds Brugler Marketing’s virtual crop tour, which surveys clients, will happen the first week of August.

Crop Conditions

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Forecasting Yield