Drought

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 14:29:35 GMT

Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.

The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook , there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.

Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.

While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.

“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing. “The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

(ECMWF)

Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.

“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”

Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.

“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.

Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.

“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.

“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.

Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.

“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”

That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.

“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.

“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”

Brian Bledsoe says the ridge of high pressure parked over the east, but the blue in the west is what is sending energy that’s fueling storms benefiting some areas of the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.

“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”

The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.

“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”

Signs of Improvement Into May

While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.

“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.

That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.

“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”

For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.

“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.

EURO seasonal model forecast for precipitation from May to June.

(WeatherBELL)

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.

“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news,” says Bledsoe.

(NOAA Composite of previous comparison years for precipitation. )

And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”

Model guidance is echoing that trend.

“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”

Temperature trends also offer some relief.

“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.

“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.

The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.

“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.

“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.

For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:52 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:31 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Colorado Farmer May Be Forced to Idle 75% of Acres Due to Record-Low Snowpack

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:54:11 GMT

A dry, unseasonably warm January has left much of the West staring at one of the leanest snow years in decades, raising red flags for farmers, ranchers and rural communities that depend on mountain snowpack for water. With some farmers facing water allocations near 0%, they say if nothing changes, they’ll be forced to leave valuable acres fallow — simply because they don’t have the irrigation water to support growing crops this year.

According to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), snow cover across the Western U.S. on Feb. 1 measured just 139,322 square miles — the lowest February 1 extent in the MODIS satellite record, which dates back to 2001.

At the state level, the numbers are just as stark. As of Feb. 1, Oregon, Colorado and Utah have each reported record-low statewide snowpack. NIDIS says widespread SNOTEL monitoring stations in those states date back to the early 1980s, underscoring how unusual this year’s deficit has become.

Major Basins in Trouble From Lack of Snow

Several critical water supply basins are already in severe snow drought, including the Deschutes River Basin, Humboldt River Basin, Yakima River Basin, Rio Grande Basin and the Upper Colorado River Basin. That’s important because these basins feed irrigation systems, municipal water supplies and hydropower infrastructure across the West.

For agriculture, the implications are significant. Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, storing winter precipitation and releasing it gradually during spring and summer to feed critical irrigation. When that reserve shrinks, so does confidence in irrigation allocations and summer stream flows, with the warning signs already there.

Snow water equivalent values for watersheds in the Western U.S.

(NIDIS)

January is typically a cornerstone month for snow accumulation across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Instead, much of the region received 50% or less of normal precipitation. Persistent high-pressure systems brought sunny skies and above-normal temperatures, limiting snow accumulation and even triggering melt in some areas.

On the Ground in Colorado

For Marc Arnusch, a farmer in Keenesburg, Colorado , the snow numbers translate directly into hard planting decisions — ones he’s already forced to face.

“Our issues aren’t so much market-driven. They’re driven by water scarcity,” Arnusch says. “We haven’t had any measurable moisture on our farm since early October. And so we’re really struggling on what it’s going to look like to put a crop out there in the field.”

The drought picture in Colorado is dire. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 73% of the state is faced with dry conditions. More than half of the state is seeing drought.

Arnusch says with drought already in the picture, irrigation will be vital — but that doesn’t look likely. He says his ditch district’s current water allocation sits at 0%.

“It can change. It always has, it always will,” he adds. “But imagine going with a Plan A of your crop plan. You’ve got markets on the other side that are demanding your production. How do you bridge that gap if you can’t produce?”

If conditions don’t improve, Arnusch says he may be forced to prevent plant roughly 75% of his acres this year.

“We will preventative plant, if nothing changes, three-quarters of our farming operation this year because we simply do not have the water. In a worst-case scenario, if our water allocation is zero, what do you grow with that?” he says.

Arnusch operates a 5,000-acre farm, focusing on diversified, high-value and certified seed crops to support local industries. His primary crops include certified seed wheat, certified seed barley, specialty grains for the craft brewing and distilling industry, corn, alfalfa and black-eyed peas.

Arnusch was named 2025 Top Producer of the Year and has built a successful farming career off of his ability to take bold risks while constantly searching for new sources of demand. But he says competition for limited water supplies only adds to the uncertainty this year.

“With the competing interest for water, especially growing crops this close to the Front Range, people tend to come first,” he says.

While his operation has built diversification and vertical integration, along with a network of loyal growers to help fill contracts when local production falls short, he worries about the longer-term impact to not just his farm, but the entire area.

“We had a balance sheet that will help us at least weather this storm, maybe another storm,” Arnusch says. “But I’m getting concerned of what we might erode on our balance sheet maybe two and three years out.”

Shrinking Snow Line and Runoff

Warm conditions have also shifted the snow line in the mountains. Higher elevations are holding snow, but many lower-elevation zones have seen little accumulation or outright melt.

Reduced snow cover at lower elevations can lead to earlier drying of soils and rangeland, increasing the risk of a longer and more intense wildfire season . It can also reduce runoff efficiency as spring arrives, meaning less water ultimately reaches reservoirs and canals.

For producers already watching input costs and water allocations closely, that adds another layer of uncertainty heading into planting season.

Economic Ripple Effects

Snowpack is also an economic engine in the West. Rural Western communities rely on winter recreation, agriculture and energy production tied directly to mountain snow.

The impacts are already being felt in the recreation sector, with ski areas and tourism-dependent towns facing thin coverage and shorter seasons. Water supply concerns are also mounting for agriculture and hydropower generation, sectors that depend on predictable spring runoff.

Meanwhile, other parts of the West have seen a different story. Just weeks ago, California’s snowpack and drought picture looked far more favorable, underscoring how quickly conditions can shift, for better or worse.

A Narrowing Window

A potential pattern shift could bring wetter-than-normal conditions to parts of the West leading into spring; however, forecasts still favor warmer-than-normal temperatures across large areas, which could limit how much new precipitation sticks as snow.

Abundant snowfall over the next couple of months could still reduce the worst impacts. But for now, the West’s snowpack picture is one of historically low coverage at a time of year when mountains should be steadily building their reserves.

For farmers like Arnusch, that means making contingency plans and hoping winter isn’t finished yet.

Wildfires have also ravaged the Plains over the past week. You can see why conditions have been so ripe for the devastating wildfires, and concerns about a warmer-than-normal pattern in those areas.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 23:00:27 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

USDA Launches New Round of Disaster Aid: What Producers Need to Know to Sign Up

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 17:35:13 GMT

USDA is launching the next phase of its Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) , aimed at farmers who suffered losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 . This new round — Stage 2 — was unveiled on Monday and is expected to be significantly more complex than earlier programs and will likely include a surge in enrollment from specialty crop growers.

Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation Richard Fordyce says this latest stage fills major gaps for producers who either lacked crop insurance altogether or whose losses didn’t quite trigger an indemnity payment. He also says this round of disaster aid is complex, and there are a few things producers can do in advance to make the sign-up process a little easier.

Stage 2 Designed for “Shallow Losses” and Quality Loss

Fordyce explains the scope of eligible disasters is much wider than many producers realize.

He says the qualifying events including everything from drought and wildfires to a derecho. He adds that the program is specifically geared toward losses that fell through the cracks of traditional programs.

“This supplemental disaster relief program is going to assist producers that either did not have crop insurance or their crop insurance didn’t trigger an indemnity, but it was close,” he says. “We call those shallow losses. And there’s also a quality loss component we haven’t really been able to address in previous programs.”

Fordyce says with this stage being more complex, there are two things he wants producers to know:

“I think I think number one, if you are in an area that had a weather disaster in 2023 and 2024, if you’re a producer, you think back, did I have a severe weather event, right? Hurricane, wildfire, derecho, freeze, drought, whatever, and it impacted my crop, then you’re probably eligible,” says Fordyce. “So just think back to 23 and 24. And then, contact that local FSA county office, go to the website. There’s resources on that website as well, and then just be thinking about documentation that could prove that loss. And I mean, I think depending on the crop, depending on the geography, you know, that documentation’s gonna be different.”

Specialty Crops Expected to Be a Major Share of Applicants

What crops will be covered? Fordyce emphasizes many specialty crop operations will find Stage 2 particularly valuable.

“What we think will be crops that will probably have a higher subscription rate through this program are gonna be specialty crops. So it’ll be again what you think of as conventional specialty crops, you know, grapes, so it’s trees, vines, bushes would be you know, probably more more of those crops that would be included,” he says.

He notes that Stage 1 was largely focused on crops with well-established crop insurance data streams, such as major row crops.

“This one’s going to be harder, more complicated, because the data isn’t as uniform and the crop mix is so diverse,” he says.

Producers MUST Enroll in Person, Fordyce Urges Them to Prepare Now

One of the biggest changes in Stage 2 is how growers must apply. Unlike Stage 1, USDA is not mailing pre-filled applications. Producers must go to their FSA county office and work through the application with staff.

Fordyce says with this round being more complicated, preparation is key, but USDA has created a clear and concise checklist to help .

“We’re asking folks to call the local county office to set up an appointment,” he says. “We want to use the producer’s time in the best way we can. This is not something where you just walk in and hope to get it done quickly. There are documents we need, and the more a producer gets ahead of that, the smoother the process will be.”

USDA has published a detailed checklist at FSA.usda.gov/SDRP , and Fordyce encourages producers not to wait.

“It’s a list of documents you really should start getting your hands on, and if you don’t have documentation for something, the checklist also lays out acceptable ways you can substantiate the loss,” he says. “Depending on the crop and the geography, what counts as documentation is going to be different. That’s why we want folks to look at it now, not when they’re sitting in the county office.”

He stresses early preparation will matter because demand will be high.

“This one’s more complicated than Stage 1, no question, and it’s going to take more work from producers and from our county offices,” he says.

Billions Already Distributed And Billions More to Come

SDRP Stage 2 is part of the $30 billion disaster and economic assistance package Congress authorized.

Fordyce explains: “SDRP Stage 2 is part of the $30 billion Congress appropriated back in December. The first $10 billion was the economic aid program, then $6 billion for SDRP Stage 1. When we wrap up SDRP Stage 2, we will have administered all $30 billion in disaster and economic relief.”

What Farmers Need to Know

1. You must enroll in person at your FSA county office.

No prefilled applications will be mailed.
Call ahead to schedule an appointment.
Expect longer processing due to program complexity.

2. Stage 2 covers 2023 through 2024 weather-related losses.

Includes “too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, too windy” and other major events.
Eligibility includes shallow losses and quality losses.

3. Specialty crops likely benefit most.

Trees, vines, bushes, grapes and other specialty crops are expected to represent the majority of applicants.

4. Prepare documents in advance.

Use the SDRP checklist at FSA.usda.gov/SDRP .
Documentation varies by crop and region.

Market Loss Payments Still Being Debated, Prices at Harvest Are a Concern

Producers are still asking about potential market loss payments tied to tariff impacts and trade disruptions. While some hope an announcement will come before year-end, Fordyce cautions nothing is final.

“We’re having conversations almost daily with the Secretary’s office, the chief economist’s office, the White House,” he says. “When and if we do something, we want it to be well informed through the data we have. We want it to reflect where we are today, but also, it has to reflect where we were because many producers sold crops at harvest when prices were low. We know that.”

He stresses any decision must accurately reflect the full picture.

“There’s nothing decided yet, no imminent announcement I’m aware of, but the points producers are raising are the same ones we’re discussing internally,” Fordyce says.

Cotton Farmers and Other Struggling Commodities Are Part of the Conversation

Fordyce says USDA is closely tracking severe distress in cotton country.

“There are multiple commodities that are part of the conversation,” he says. “China is the big name because of soybean and sorghum exports, but there are other factors affecting other commodities too. When we make a decision, it’s going to be informed, it’s going to be representative of where we are, and it’s going to rely on the data we have access to.”

Borrower Limits Remain a Roadblock

As lenders warn of widespread stress, many producers want USDA to raise loan limits for beginning farmers and other borrowers. Fordyce says USDA cannot make that change without congressional action.

“Loan limits are statutory,” he explains. “We had a significant increase in 2018, but prices, land values and equipment costs have all shifted since then. We have champions in Congress who understand the inadequacies of our loan limits, and they want to increase them. We’ll see where that goes.”

USDA Leadership Knows the Stakes

Fordyce says USDA leaders understand, personally, the financial strain farmers face.

“My first operating loan was in 1983 at about 18% interest,” he says. “And I still wanted to farm. There are people up and down the hallways of USDA leadership who have farmed, who are farming or who have direct ties to a farm. There’s absolutely a 100% understanding of what’s happening both broadly and commodity by commodity, region by region.”

AgriTalk’s Chip Flory also talked to Farm CPA Paul Nieffer about the latest round of disaster aid. You can listen to that conversation as he outlines what farmers need to know.

Widespread Warmth, Lingering Drought Dominate Early November Outlook

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:07:21 GMT

It’s been an unusually warm start to November, a trend that’s gripping the West and preventing moisture from reaching areas that need it. But that trend could shift later in the month, at least in terms of temperatures.

Several parts of the U.S. experienced their warmest November days on record in 2025, including Denver, Colo., and Tucson, Ariz. Other locations like Goodland, Kan., Sidney, Neb., and La Junta, Colo., also set daily record highs. But just how high are we talking?

Denver : Broke its all-time record November high, reaching 83°F and significantly exceeding the previous record of 78°F
Tucson : Set a record for the hottest day of the year on Saturday with 88°F, then broke its own record the next day with 92°F
Cheyenne : Recorded its latest-ever 70°F
San Jose : Reached 80°F

Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe, of Brian Bledsoe Weather, says through the first half of November, he expects above-normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, with the Southeast seeing slightly cooler conditions.

“The western two-thirds of the country are just going to be a blowtorch,” he says.

Not Good News for Chances of Rain

It’s not just the warmth, but also the lack of moisture in the forecast. Bledsoe says rain chances will stay limited for most regions, especially the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast, where below-normal precipitation is likely. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies are the exceptions, potentially seeing wetter-than-average conditions.

“We’re continuing to build on some of these dry areas that have expanded across much of the country,” Bledsoe says. “If you look at the current drought monitor, there’s still a good bit of the country suffering from drought.”

The most recent look at the U.S. Drought Monitor paints a troubling picture heading into winter.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

He notes that drought persists in the Southwest, where the monsoon season failed to deliver consistent rainfall. Washington, Idaho, and northwest Montana are also struggling with dryness, while parts of the Corn Belt — and even sections of the Northeast — remain abnormally dry.

“Absolutely, we have areas we need to work on,” he says. “But the current pattern just isn’t conducive to big storms bringing widespread moisture.”

Ridge Holds Firm Across the West

Bledsoe explains a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the interior West — covering Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico — is pushing most storm systems northward.

A look at how the warmth will shift in November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

“That ridge is basically diverting the storm track,” he says. “Meanwhile, farther east — across the eastern Great Lakes and into the far eastern Corn Belt — we’ll be under the influence of a trough of low pressure. That brings a few chances for colder air and maybe some brief moisture, but it’s not a setup for big storms.”

Pattern Shift Possible Later in November

There is some hope for change as the month progresses. Long-range European models show the upper-level ridge beginning to weaken, opening the door for a more active storm track.

“As that ridge gradually breaks down, we’ll start to see less of the drier-than-average pattern,” Bledsoe says. “Areas farther north will likely see moisture first, and then hopefully that extends farther south into the Plains.”

Precipitation outlook for the first half of November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Snow in the Forecast?

While the heat was the headline to start November, and continues to be the case in the western U.S., there will be a blip of not just cooler air, but much colder air that could bring snow to the central and eastern parts of the country. But it won’t last long.

AccuWeather says you’ll need to brace for a big change this weekend and early next week in the central and eastern United States . AccuWeather meteorologists warn the weather pattern indicates a surge of cold air and at least one storm capable of producing a band of accumulating snow across parts of the Midwest, followed by lake-effect snow and perhaps a bit of snow in portions of the Appalachians to the south.

AccuWeather says cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast.

(AccuWeather)

AccuWeather is calling it “Christmastime cold” that’s on the way.
Their meteorologists say a large push of cold air arrives this weekend, which will cause conditions to drastically change.

A significant dip in the jet stream is forecast to begin this weekend for the Central and Eastern states.

“Temperatures will feel more like mid-December or even Christmastime in many places by next week,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says.

A storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

(AccuWeather )

But the cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast, according to AccuWeather.

It may be temporary, but the colder air will bring chances of accumulating snow in areas of the Midwest and the Appalachians that are farther south and rather low in elevation, according to AccuWeather. The storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

“As we see it now, the most likely time for snow showers in Chicago that can bring a small accumulation is late Saturday night to Sunday morning,” Pastelok says. “Around Detroit the most likely timing for accumulating snow showers is from Sunday morning to Sunday midday.”

While an excessive accumulation of snow is not anticipated on the roads, AccuWeather says the snow can fall at a heavy enough rate near the Interstate 94 and 80/90 corridor to make for slushy conditions in some areas.

La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:42:11 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are gearing up for a potentially volatile winter as the National Weather Service has placed the country under a La Niña Watch. But what does that really mean for the months ahead? Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions , says this winter’s pattern could be one to watch closely.

Weather Highlights from Now Through December

Expect an early-peaking La Niña, with the strongest impacts likely around Christmas.
Look for cold, snowy conditions in the north and dryness in the south.
Watch for frequent Arctic intrusions and an active Ohio Valley storm track.
Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical, especially in the Midwest.
Persistent Cotton Belt drought could influence next summer’s Corn Belt outlook.
South America faces a wetter north/drier south split, which could affect global crop markets.

What a La Niña Watch Means

The Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71% chance of La Niña conditions developing from October through December. CPC also issued a La Niña Watch , which means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months.

“La Niña just means the trade winds are fast across the equator,” Snodgrass explains. “When that happens, it tends to give us a very loopy jet stream throughout winter.”

That looping pattern is something Snodgrass says influences everything from temperature swings to precipitation.

“When you think about La Niña winters, they all have different flavors,” he says. “We’ve had four La Niñas in the last five winters. This would be the sixth one in that time frame. And the big question we have is: Is it going to deliver typical La Niña conditions?”

Historically, La Niña brings colder and snowier conditions across the northern U.S. and drier conditions in the South.

“We typically find that we’re dry from the Southwest, the Sun Belt to the Cotton Belt,” Snodgrass says. “We tend to be snowier and colder to the north — across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. La Niña winters tend to be cold, tend to snow, but that’s not a guarantee — it’s a tendency.”

Early Peak, Quick Exit

This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively short-lived.

“We think it’s going to peak early, probably right around Christmas, and probably quickly exit,” Snodgrass notes. “The big question I have is: What’s going to happen to the drought monitor between now and next April when we’re thinking about a La Niña winter?”

Moisture Deficits Are a Big Concern

Moisture is already top of mind for many growers. After an unexpectedly wet spring in some regions, conditions turned dry quickly, leaving soil moisture depleted.

“We need to get a lot of moisture before the ground freezes in parts of the Midwest,” he says. “If we can do that, we’ll lock that in and save it for spring.”

But getting there might involve a bumpy ride.

“There are a lot of indications right now that this winter could be fun,” Snodgrass says with a laugh. “When I say fun, that’s fun for me to forecast. That means most people don’t like those kinds of winters. They’re probably going to be pretty volatile — frequent but brief intrusions of really Arctic air.”

He says we recently saw a hint of that with the rain that hit the East Coast last week.

“That’ll set up an active storm track through the Ohio Valley most likely. We already saw our first nor’easter go up the East Coast just last weekend, and you look at all of that and you’re going, is this kind of the way things are going to shake down,” he adds.

If the pattern develops as expected, it could dramatically shrink drought coverage , which currently is covering 73% of the continental U.S.

“You add La Niña into the mix, and it could be a winter that takes the drought monitor from 73% maybe down to 43% or even below that,” he explains. “But the question will remain: Where did the drought stick around?”

Snodgrass is particularly concerned about lingering drought in the South.

“What I always worry about with La Niña winters is if Cotton Belt drought survives, especially in the Delta. And if it’s there by the time we get to spring, then I start to worry about Corn Belt drought the next summer,” he says. “So yes, this is going to be a critical winter for us.”

Analog Years Point to a Volatile Pattern

When asked about potential analog years, Snodgrass points to a recent and familiar one.

“The best analog is actually last year, 2024, which is kind of funny,” he says. “There are five different areas around the globe, and the ocean temperatures, plus the fall drought in the Mississippi basin, plus what’s going on in the Indian Ocean, plus what’s going on in South America — all of these things are like, hey, we just saw this. It was called last October, November.”

That year brought some memorable weather swings. Does that mean we should set ourselves up for a mild rest of fall and then a brutally cold January and February where it snows as far south as New Orleans? That’s what the U.S. experienced last winter, followed by a super wet spring.

“I hate to say it, but 2024 is kind of setting itself up to be an interesting analog to this year,” Snodgarass says. “But like I said, there’s no such thing as a perfect analog — we’ll have to sit and wait to see how it all unfolds.”

South America’s Split Forecast

La Niña’s impacts won’t be confined to the U.S.

“It tends to split South America from Brazil to Argentina,” Snodgrass explains. “Brazil tends to have a decent monsoon — tends to be wetter. They tend to love La Niña if you’re in the Cerrado. If you’re in southern Brazil, they start to get worried. They tend to see drier conditions. You get into Argentina, historically, it’s drier.”

Some areas have already received favorable early rains, while others are still waiting for the monsoon to ramp up. Not only have areas of Brazil seen good rains, but they’ve also been able to plant at a rapid pace.

“And others are going, wait a minute, we haven’t seen this monsoon get really going yet, and they’re waiting. I think it’s going to be a north versus south issue — wetter north, drier south,” Snodgrass says.

California's Water Crisis: Farmers Warn Water Rules Could Cripple Central Valley Agriculture

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 10:52:47 GMT

On Hansen Ranch in the Central Valley, fifth-generation farmer Erik Hansen grows a little bit of everything — pistachios, almonds, pomegranates, alfalfa, corn for silage and cotton.

“We farm 15, 16 different crops,” Hansen says. “Cotton is our biggest acreage crop, and that’s in the form of Pima cotton.”

That diversification has long been the Hansen family’s survival strategy. But in spring 2023, no amount of crop rotation could shield them from disaster.

“Where we’re standing right now was underwater,” Hansen recalls. “A mile from here, over by that PG&E substation, was the edge of the lake.”

The flood wiped out 600 acres of pomegranates and 400 acres of pistachios. One thousand acres of permanent crops gone in one season.

“It was a massive hit,” Hansen says. “We had about 5,000 to 6,000 acres under water. Some of that water lasted for over a year.”

From Too Much Water to Not Enough

The irony is hard to ignore: In 2023, floodwaters destroyed thousands of acres. Now, Hansen says it’s the lack of access to water that could cripple farms across the Central Valley.

“The last projections I heard were anywhere from 1 million to 1.2 million acres totaled in the valley,” he says, referring to farmland that could be idled by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) .

Passed in 2014, SGMA requires local agencies to reduce groundwater overdraft and achieve sustainable use by 2040. On paper, Hansen says, that makes sense.

“To some extent it is good because you have to have a way to manage the overdraft,” he explains. “The problem is there are surface water facilities we developed back in the 50s and 60s that we’re just not using. A lot of that water is going out to the Pacific Ocean.”

For Hansen, the politics sting. He believes decades of state decisions — prioritizing fish and wildlife, reallocating water, and neglecting infrastructure — set up today’s crisis.

“I’m frustrated because the families that have been farming here for years, some decades, sometimes even more, are being footed with a bill for problems that somebody else created,” Hansen says. “If the state doesn’t look in the mirror, I think we’re going to find ourselves in the same position again.”

Young Farmers Face the Same Struggles

Forty miles south, 30-year-old Elizabeth Keenan is navigating the same regulatory headwinds. Her grandfather Charlie started Keenan Farms in 1972, acquiring one of California’s first pistachio orchards. Today, Elizabeth farms alongside her parents and brother.

“Rolling with the regulatory punches can be complicated,” she admits. “Despite pistachios being such a high-value product, despite having optimal land and weather conditions, we really have everything set up beautifully — except for legislation.”

Water, she says, is the most difficult hurdle.

“We’re up to a 50% allocation,” Keenan explains. “The base allocation is 2.2 acre-feet, so we get 1.1 acre-feet to use. Otherwise, we have to have open fallow fields. To pump more water, we have to buy it on the open market, and that’s expensive too.”

A Political Battle Over Flows

Signs line highways across the Central Valley warning that 80% of California’s river water flows out to the Pacific instead of farms. Assemblyman David Tangipa, a freshman lawmaker representing the 8^th District, says those numbers are real.

“It’s 100% happening,” Tangipa says. “Almost 83% of all water in the state is automatically pushed out for environmental purposes.”

California averages about 200 million acre-feet of water each year, Tangipa notes, but despite record rainfall, farms often get less than half of their allocations.

“We’ve prioritized so much environmental legislation that more than 80% of our water is pushed out immediately to the ocean, unnaturally,” he says. “Meanwhile, farmers get less water and more land goes out of production.”

Proponents of Current Water Flows

There are proponents of the current way the water flows, mainly for environmental reasons and to prevent saltwater contamination of freshwater sources.

California releases water into the ocean to prevent saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies, protect endangered aquatic species and ecosystems, and maintain the delicate balance of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta estuary, a critical source of drinking and irrigation water.

A portion of released water is also used for stormwater management to prevent flooding, as it can be difficult and impractical to capture and store all of it.

And those in favor of environmental water releases say it’s essential to support broader ecosystem benefits like water filtration and carbon sequestration, which are important for overall environmental health.

The Ripple Effect

The Central Valley of California is a powerhouse in food production for the U.S. That area alone produces approximately half of all the fruits and vegetables grown in the U.S., as well as a large portion of the nation’s nuts and other foods. When you break down the numbers, the Central Valley accounts for about 60% of the nation’s fruits and nuts, and about 30% of the nation’s vegetables.

For Thomas Putzel, who works with farmers across the Central Valley, the impact of regulations isn’t just measured in acre-feet. It’s measured in livelihoods and the food supply.

“The environmentalists try to say farmers are wasting water,” he says. “But when we look at what farmers provide, we’re planting forests. One acre of almonds will capture 18 metric tons of carbon a year. That’s like taking 29 million cars off the road.”

Putzel says California voters already approved a water bond to build new storage a decade ago, but no new projects have been built.

“Not one shovel has gone in the ground in 10 years,” he says. “Actually, they took some of that money and tore dams down.”

Meanwhile, permanent crops wither when water isn’t available, leaving behind dead orchards that invite pests and rodents into neighboring fields.

“SGMA’s not necessarily a bad thing,” Putzel says. “But you’ve asked growers to run a marathon with their legs tied together. People don’t understand; food doesn’t come from a grocery store. It comes from a farmer. If California stopped shipping produce for one week, our stores would be empty.”

“Is Farming in California’s Best Interest?”

For Erik Hansen, the question is bigger than water allocations or acreage lost.

“Government is probably the biggest problem right now,” he says. “It just seems California hasn’t really decided whether farming is in their best interest. Politicians like to say they’re for small business and small farming, but virtually every piece of legislation makes it more difficult to survive.”

As the Central Valley wrestles with the challenges of floods, drought and regulations, one reality is clear: The fate of these farms is tied not just to weather and soil but to political decisions that could shape the future of food in America.

There Are Strategies to Deal With Washington's Drought ... But They Cost

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 22:24:45 GMT

While the word drought might conjure images of parched, cracked earth and crispy, brown vegetation, drought means different things in different places. For tree fruit growers in Washington, for instance, it means snowless mountains and sunburned fruit. But growers in the state are working on strategies to keep their orchards alive and well and having fruit available to consumers.

According to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, 87% of Washington is in some level of drought, ranging from abnormally dry to moderate drought. But that doesn’t tell all or even most of the story for the state’s tree fruit growers.

“Increasingly we have been seeing problems with drought in Washington state, both because we occasionally have years with lower precipitation overall, but more often our problem has been the pattern and format of our precipitation,” says Jon DeVaney, president of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association. He explains that for orchards east of the Cascades, irrigation-season water is stored primarily in the form of winter snowfall.

“If it flows out as rainfall or premature melt, then the water is not going to be available later in the season,” he continues.

That is exactly the situation facing the state and the whole of the Pacific Northwest.

According to the most recent drought status update from the National Integrated Drought Information System, the region is in a state of persistent snow drought and rapid spring snowmelt. Specifically in Oregon and Washington, the snow drought developed early due to low precipitation. The NIDIS says this was especially the case “along the west slope of the Washington Cascade Range, where many [Snow Telemetry] stations reported peak snow water equivalent of 50% to 69% of median. A handful of sites there reported less than 50% of median peak SWE.”

The peak snow water equivalent map for Washington as of June 2025.

(USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service)

The snowpack in the Washington Cascades was almost non-existent as of June 19, 2025.

(USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service.)

A drought emergency was declared for the Yakima Basin in April. It later expanded to 19 other watersheds in central Washington in early June. Washington is a center of fruit tree production, with roughly two thirds of U.S. apples grown in the state, with the Yakima Basin being central to the Washington apple growing industry.

Dealing with drought on the orchard

DeVaney says the increasingly-common drought situation in Washington points to the need for state-level investment in climate adaptation, primarily in water storage. But tree fruit growers are also taking steps to be more resilient in a future with less predictable precipitation and temperature patterns.

For example, a lot of Washington orchards already have an irrigation pond, DeVaney explains. This provides water during times of need out of season with usual irrigation water availability. It’s a strategy more growers are looking into.

“Having that on-site storage can be really beneficial, but it’s not cheap,” DeVaney says. “It can cost six figures to put in a new pond for your orchard. And, of course, if you’re putting in a pond, you’re taking land out of production.”

Another directly water-related strategy is paying annual crop growers for their water when there is sufficient early warning of drought conditions. That allows the annual crop growers to be paid to fallow their lands while getting the orchards the water they need to keep the growers’ long-term investments alive and productive, DeVaney says.

“Those irrigation districts do a really good job of that and that’s beneficial certainly,” he says, “but it is certainly an added cost for those growers to try to get water from their neighbors during a curtailed year.”

Another pair of strategies that are increasingly being used are specific to apples.

“A lot of folks don’t realize that the cells of apples are as susceptible to sunburn as humans are, so if the temperatures get too high, you can have damage to the fruit from those temperatures,” DeVaney says.

Traditionally the approach to this issue has been to have overhead cooling from sprinklers. Basically the same idea as having the kids run around in the sprinklers during summer, DeVaney says.

“That evaporative cooling effect is beneficial and reduces the surface temperature,” he says, “but, obviously, in a drought and intensive heat years, using more water may not be the best or even an available solution.”

So, apple producers are trying two different approaches: using shade cloth over orchards to offer UV protection and shifting sprinkling technology to produce mist, thereby reducing droplet size and water use while still getting the same cooling effect. Both of those strategies come with added costs, however. Shade cloths and the associated infrastructure come with costs and added annual labor to put it up and take it down. New misting infrastructure also comes with costs.

“The challenge in the current ag economy is you can solve one problem — constrained water — by replacing it with another resource, which is money,” he says, noting that money is often the scarcer resource. “It’s one thing to recognize that there are solutions and adaptations to climate challenges, but it’s another to actually pay for them because we are usually trading off one resource for another.”

State-level efforts to be more water resilient

While growers are taking the steps they can to improve their on-farm resiliency to increasing drought and uncertainty, becoming more adaptable to meet all of the state’s water stakeholders — agriculture, environment and beyond — takes state-level effort.

“I think the biggest water issue we’re facing is having the infrastructure to better manage the resource,” DeVaney says. While praising the state of Washington and its irrigation districts for making investments in a more versatile future, he also notes that “designing, permitting, and constructing some of those additional storage measures is going to take quite a while. That is a multi-decade effort.”

There are ongoing state-level efforts that run on a shorter timeline, however.

“A lot of our university researchers, including programs supported directly by industry dollars, are focused on climate resiliency and water management and heat management for our orchards,” DeVaney says, highlighting ongoing research on varietals.

“Some varieties are more vulnerable to damage from high heat than other apple varieties, one of the more popular apple varieties being Honeycrisp,” he says. “While that’s a very popular variety with growers and consumers, that is a factor that producers have to think about.”

Another big water issue DeVaney cites as being pressing to the tree fruit growers of Washington is public perception and understanding where water management is concerned.

“The changing climate can mean, over time, you’re going to have to have more interventions to manage that resource for optimal outcomes, both for farming but also for natural resource use,” he says. While he acknowledges that the hands-off approach can sound romantic, more management often results in better outcomes for everyone.

“I think that that is one of the biggest impediments, just getting people to recognize that beneficial management is not just a grower concern,” he continues. “Making further investments in managing our river systems can ensure that there’s water available for irrigation, and to manage flows for salmon and threatened or endangered species that are using those rivers. We can manage the flow levels to ensure that the temperatures are conducive to healthy rivers and streams.”

And growers, irrigation districts and Washington are good at managing the challenges of increasingly frequent drought and uncertain weather patterns, DeVaney says.

“They put costs on growers, but for the end consumer, it’s usually pretty invisible,” he says, adding that consumers won’t see a decline in quantity or quality of Washington tree fruit. “But they should have some sympathy for growers who are having to put in a lot of extra cost and effort in order to ensure that outcome.”

When Farmers Can Expect the Next Round of American Relief Act Payments

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 13:51:12 GMT

USDA is currently in the trenches of issuing the nearly $31 billion in total disaster and emergency relief aid to farmers and ranchers in four stages. That money was appropriated by Congress as part of the American Relief Act, which was passed in December of 2024. In an exclusive interview with Farm Journal on Monday, USDA Deputy Undersecretary Brooke Appleton said the next round of disaster aid payments could be coming the first full week of July.

USDA began issuing the $1 billion in emergency livestock relief program payments last week, which is the latest in a series of disaster and emergency relief. Appleton told Farm Journal that instead of holding the money and issuing it all at once, USDA decided to issue the payments in four phases, as USDA wanted to get assistance out to producers as quickly as possible.

“We had ECAP (Emergency Commodity Assistance Program) , we now have the Emergency Livestock Relief Program, we’re going to have supplemental disaster relief, and then we’re going to have another emergency livestock relief program to cover the flood losses that we saw in ‘23 and ’24,” Appleton said. “So, we’re kind of doing it in stages, it should stream out all through the summer really, and so I’m hoping that that kind of can relieve some of that financial stress.”

Appleton said USDA has issued $7.7 billion out of the appropriated $10 billion in direct payments under ECAP so far, which was the first stage of payments. Sign-ups for that program began in March. USDA initially issued 85% of a producer’s projected payment, with the remaining 15% expected after sign-ups close on Aug. 15.

Just last week, USDA announced the details surrounding $1 billion in Emergency Livestock Relief Program payments , which is the second phase of the American Relief Act. Those payments are being dispersed now, and it covers grazing losses due to eligible drought or wildfire events that happened in 2023 and 2024. That round of the program doesn’t require producers to sign up, as USDA is using existing information. Since the program was announced on May 29, USDA says it’s dispersed more than $641 million in payments to livestock producers who suffered grazing losses during that time.

“FSA is leveraging existing livestock forage disaster program data to streamline these payments and calculations to expedite that relief. So this was unlike most of our programs, farmers and ranchers didn’t have to go into the office to sign up,” Appleton said. “We already have the information. So those emergency relief payments were automatically issued to producers who had already had their data into their FSA office. And those payments started going out in earnest last week, so May 30.”

The next round of American Relief Act disaster aid payments is the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program, which is the larger amount appropriated by Congress. Appleton told Farm Journal details surrounding those payments are being prepared now, and USDA expects to issue those payments next month. The amount of money that will go out during the next round isn’t known at this time, as a USDA official says the agency is still “working diligently to balance the needs with the available funding.”

“The larger supplemental disaster program that is part of that is making its way through the process right now at USDA and other government agencies,” Appleton said. “The timeline for that, we’re targeting to sign up farmers by the first full week in July, so maybe the week of July 7. That will be literally every crop production loss that has happened for ‘23 and ’24, and that’s just additional disaster assistance that was legislated by Congress.”

Once those payments are released, USDA’s final phase of the American Relief Act will be another emergency livestock relief program, but this covers flood losses producers saw in 2023 and 2024.

Appleton says that’s been the most difficult program to outline and detail, as USDA has never administered a disaster program for livestock that covered losses due to flooding.

“We’ve never had a disaster program for livestock that triggered on flooding, so that piece of it is going to take us a little bit longer,” she said. “And that’s something that’s another piece of this larger disaster package. It’s going to roll out later this summer, but as these programs are ready to go and ready to roll out, we’re focused on doing it as soon as we can, rather than holding them all and doing it all at once. We want to make sure as soon is the assistance is ready to go, we are getting it out and we’re getting it to the folks who need it.”

Congress earmarked $2 billion for livestock losses due to droughts, wildfires and floods. The first livestock disaster aid announced last week totaled $1 billion, which means another $1 billion should be dispersed through the livestock disaster payments that cover losses due to flooding.

USDA says it is fully committed to expediting remaining disaster assistance provided by the American Relief Act 2025. On May 7, it launched its 2023/2024 Supplemental Disaster Assistance public landing page where the status of USDA disaster assistance and block grant rollout timeline can be tracked.

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:47 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:11:21 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

Rollins Says USDA Will Announce Application Process for $21 Billion in Disaster Aid Within Days

Wed, 07 May 2025 18:44:02 GMT

In her first hearing on Capitol Hill since the confirmation process earlier this year, Secretary Brooke Rollins faced the Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday, fielding questions on everything from USDA’s bold budget cuts and frozen funding to the fate of the nearly $21 billion in disaster aid.

Rollins fiercely defended the cuts, continuing to argue that it is a way to make USDA more effective and more efficient. She also told the committee that farmers will be able to sign up for the disaster aid by the end of May.

Congress approved the disaster aid on Dec. 21, 2024. While the $10 billion in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) was passed the same day, it was separate and came with a clear deadline on when USDA had to disperse those funds. In the hearing this week, Rollins admitted the disaster aid program has been more complicated to roll out.

“That one’s a little more complicated than the ECAP, the disaster or the emergency relief payments, but we’re really close and within a matter of days or weeks, certainly by the end of this month, that money will begin moving,” Rollins said on Tuesday.

The nearly $21 billion in disaster aid targets agricultural losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024, which includes:

Droughts
Hurricanes
Floods
Wildfires
And other extreme weather events.

Of those funds, $2 billion is earmarked for livestock losses attributed to droughts wildfires and floods. There is also an allocation of $220 million that will be distributed through block grants to smaller agricultural states with limited farm income and acreage.

“We are within days of announcing the application process,” Rollins said. “Of course, that’s a little more complicated because we don’t have the specifics, and it isn’t, as [Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D.] mentioned, in North Dakota, 15,794 of your farmers and ranchers have received money through that first tranche, through the first $10 billion, the emergency aid. On the weather-related programs, that application opens in the next week or two. And we will be moving very, very quickly.”

.@SecRollins testifies before Congress: "When farmers prosper, rural America prospers." pic.twitter.com/rXwV12JPDD
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 6, 2025

According to Pro Farmer, the disaster aid is intended to cover losses in revenue, production quality, and infrastructure for crops, livestock and timber. And most of the aid is expected to be administered through USDA’s Emergency Relief Program (ERP), which has been used for similar disaster relief in previous years. However, USDA has indicated the new program will be more farmer-friendly than the Biden administration’s implementation of the last ag disaster funds.

Rollins says the rollout of the disaster aid funds is “a long time coming,” bacause it is related to disasters that happened as long as two years ago.

“And so ensuring that we get that out as quickly as we possibly can with the team that we have in place,” Rollins said. “I’m really proud of, I believe, how efficiently and how quickly the team moved out that first tranche. And I believe that you’ll see the same sort of efficiency and effectiveness with the second tranche, so it’s within the coming weeks.”

Rollins Fiercely Defends Cuts at USDA

Also in the hearing, Rollins defended recent budget and DOGE cuts, saying her team is eliminating what she called wasteful DEI spending, fraud and abuse in all USDA programs. She argued the plan is to rebuild USDA to put farmers first.

Rollins also discussed some frozen funds at the agency and when a review of them will be completed.

“We are working around the clock, going line by line, we’re down to the final 5 billion out of, I believe, almost 20 billion of frozen funds, but $5 billion is a lot of money,” Rollins said. “And when you think about that in terms of grant or contract and moving that out quickly, we’re very helpful to keep moving through that very, very quickly and have that done very soon.”

Rollins was also asked about the 15,000 USDA employees who have taken buyout offers from the federal government . Reports show that accounts for nearly USDA’s total workforece, and impacts farmer-facing agencies such as Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Service Agency.

“The 15,000 number, it is less than 15% of our total workforce,” Rollins said. “I realize that’s still a very, very big number. But I think it’s important to realize in the context that every year USDA, through attrition loses between 8,000 and 10,000 employees. So, it’s a massive government agency, but they’re refilled. Well, and that’s what we are looking to refill. The front liners, that’s I was talking about right now. So whether it’s FSA, APHIS, the Wildland Firefighters, those are through a memorandum I just signed, we are actively looking and recruiting to fill those positions that are integral to the efforts and the key front line.”

Senator Patty Murray, D-Wash., followed up and asked, “So, you let people go, and you’re looking for new people to fill the positions that they had experienced in?”

“We’re having those discussions right now,” Rollins said. “We are working with all of you around the country, in your states. We believe our firefighters are operationally ready for wildfire season. Our FSA offices, we are making things more efficient, but bringing on new people that could potentially be a game changer in those offices.”

The workforce reduction is part of the federal government’s current Deferred Resignation Program (DRP), which is the voluntary program that allows eligible federal employees to resign in advance while continuing to receive pay and benefits until Sept. 30.

Rollins then clarified and explained the 15,000 USDA employees who accepted the buyouts, weren’t employees who were fired, they were resignations.

“None of those people were fired,” she added. “So, if they want to come back, and if they were in a key position, then we would love to have that conversation.”

Rollins said the latest round of DRPs, which happened in April, USDA didn’t accept some of the resignations, specifically if those employees were in what Rollins called “key positions,” which includes APHIS, FSA, etc.

“We are very intentionally approaching this,” she said. “Have we done it perfectly? No. Any type of whole scale change, and big effort to basically realign an entire government agency is difficult. And we know that, and we know it hasn’t been perfect, but we’re working every day to solve for a lot of this, and I think we’re making a lot of really good progress.”

USDA Spends $400 Million a Day on Food Assistance Programs

The other hot button topic during the hearing was food assistance. The secretary pointed out USDA spends more than $400 million a day on food assistance programs and said ending COVID-era funding programs doesn’t mean defunding food assistance.

You can listen to her pointed comments in the video below.

USDA alone spends $400+ MILLION each day on food assistance programs.

Ending COVID-era funding programs doesn’t defund food assistance. It ensures we’re good stewards of taxpayer dollars. pic.twitter.com/3lT7Fu6or9
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) May 6, 2025

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:42:29 GMT

It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.

The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.

Moisture over the past 7 days shows areas of Texas through Wisconsin have seen the highest amounts of rain.

(Pivotal Weather )

Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.

“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.

The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

The next two weeks are advertised to produce above normal precipitation in the Great Plains and in this first week in the upper Midwest as well. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.

Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.

“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.

The percipitation anomalies compare March through May in 1968 to March through April in 2025.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.

“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”

Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.

These are some of the differences expected this spring and summer relative to those of 1968.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:

Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest

The summer of 1968 was wetter biased in the western and north-central U.S., while most of the Atlantic Coast States and a part of the eastern and southern Midwest were drier. While World Weather, Inc. does not believe the parallel between these two years will be quite as great this summer as it is now, but some of these tendencies should be expected.

(World Weather, Inc. )

Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.

“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”

The springs of both this year and 1968 are going to be quite similar, according to Lerner, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.

“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.

Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.

The official summer outlook may soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central high Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.

What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.

Your Next Read:
No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 12:23:44 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

California almond acreage shrinks for first time in 25 years

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 20:39:26 GMT

California’s tight water restrictions and low precipitation continues to challenge even the most creative farmers and ranchers. A recent report by Land IQ, commissioned by the Almond Board of California, confirms that even the resourceful almond industry has felt the sting of drought conditions.

For the first time in a quarter of a century, California’s almond acreage has decreased instead of grown, according to Land IQ, an agricultural and environmental research and consulting firm. In an August crop report, total almond tree acreage was estimated at 1.64 million acres, down from 1.66 million acres in August 2021, according to a news release.

Related: Senators urge USDA to improve drought support for Western growers

Land IQ also found that an estimated 30,000 acres were identified as stressed or abandoned. These acres were included in the total acreage because, according to Land IQ, they may still recover.

“Land IQ’s report may indicate a possible trend towards lower California almond acreage in the year ahead,” Richard Waycott, ABC president and CEO, said in a news release. “This acreage estimate was based on data collected through Aug. 31, so it does not reflect any additional removals that may have occurred as the harvest and post-harvest seasons progressed this fall. Those data will be incorporated in the next acreage estimate to be published in April 2023.”

Forecasting the remaining 2022-23 season

Almond crop production typically begins in August, with final shipments at the end of July the following year.

Echoing Land IQ’s findings, the USDA California almond forecast predicts 2022 production will come it at 2.80 billion pounds, 4% lower than 2.92 billion pounds in 2021.

Citing a dry winter and warmer temperatures in early 2022, the USDA forecast outlines how these factors contributed to “a shorter bloom period than in recent years” that was further affected by a late February freeze, causing frost damage in many orchards. While late-blooming almond varieties reported to have fared better than early blooming varieties, according to the USDA, “the 2022 crop is not expected to be as large as the past two years.”

Californians receive first 100% water allocation since 2006

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 18:34:28 GMT

Water availability in California has made a 180-degree turn in 2023.

Drought pressures plagued the Golden State at the beginning of the year, but after an unexpected series of atmospheric rivers this spring that inundated the state with precipitation and flooding, water districts are now set to receive 100% requested water deliveries for the first time in almost two decades.

This week the California Department of Water Resources confirmed yet another increase in the State Water Project deliveries for 2023. The new projection that 100% of water supplies will be delivered is up from a March estimate of 75%, according to a news release from the agency.

Increased water supply and careful management of reservoirs during this extreme winter allows the state water resources department to maximize deliveries, Director Karla Nemeth said in the release.

Related news: Reeling from another round of storms, California growers fight to recover farmland from flooding

“We are exceedingly grateful to [the U.S. Bureau of] Reclamation, and its dedicated and hard-working staff, for the increased water allocation. Following two years of 0% allocations, this announcement will provide much needed water to support the district’s communities, family-owned farms, and hard-working families in the San Joaquin Valley. This water supply will assist growers in Westlands with putting the land to work to grow the food that feeds the world,” Jose Gutierrez, Westlands Water District’s interim general manager, said in a response statement.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor’s April 20 update , 91% of the state is free of drought conditions. No areas of California remain in severe, extreme or exceptional drought conditions.

“Given the positive snowpack and reservoir levels throughout the Central Valley Project, the San Luis and Delta-Mendota Water Authority is pleased to see another increase in water allocations for Authority member agencies,” Federico Barajas, executive director of the San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water Authority, said in a statement. “I’d like to extend appreciation to the Bureau of Reclamation for their work in navigating the complexities of this water year, which began with preparations for a third year of drought and quickly transitioned into flood management.”

While California’s surface water availability has greatly improved following three years of drought, challenges remain in the northern part of the state and in “over-drafted groundwater basins” that millions of Californians rely on, which have been slower to recover, according to the According to the state Department of Water Resources.

“The Colorado River Basin, which is a critical water supply source for Southern California, is still in the midst of a 23-year drought,” the department said in a news release. “Californians should continue to use water wisely to help the state adapt to a hotter, drier future.”

Adjusting to a highly variable new normal

“While this year has brought a much needed respite from the dry conditions that our members have experienced for the last three years, we know that California’s hydrology is becoming increasingly variable and dry conditions could return quickly,” Barajas, of the San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water Authority, said in the release.

Capturing water in years like 2023 is a critical piece of a sustainable water strategy, Barajas added.

“Infrastructure and regulatory improvements to maximize the storage and movement of water when its available can create a more sustainable future for our member agencies and the communities and ecosystems they serve,” Barajas said in the release.

Nemeth, the state water resources department director, said the agency is moving and storing “as much water as possible” for future community, agriculture and environmental benefit.

“We must recognize the need to continue preparing for the next drought and future dry years,” said Gutierrez of the Westlands Water District. “For that reason, Westlands is investing in a sustainable water future for our farmers. Westlands is exploring and implementing creative approaches to maximize water use efficiency, recharge and storage and improve climate resilience.”

According to an agency statement, the Gov. Gavin Newsom adminstration, in partnership with the California Legislature, has prioritized actions to secure and safeguard California’s water supply, such as:

Respond to the Tulare Lake Basin flood.
Expand water supply and storage by 1.1 million acre-feet.
Issue executive orders to capture and store more water.
Fast-track groundwater recharge.
Maximize stormwater capture.
Expand water storage above and below ground.
Advance clear, ambitious water supply and resiliency targets.
Modernize water infrastructure.

California farm groups praise governor’s actions to recharge aquifers

Wed, 22 Mar 2023 15:11:54 GMT

Amid more heavy rain and snow throughout California, Gov. Gavin Newson signed an executive order March 10 that would make floodwater capture to basins easier for groundwater storage.

The order suspends regulations and restrictions to enable water agencies and water users to divert flood water to boosting groundwater recharge.

“California is seeing extreme rain and snow, so we’re making it simple to redirect water to recharge groundwater basins,” Newsom said in a news release. “This order helps us take advantage of expected intense storms and increases state support for local stormwater capture efforts.”

Related news: Western growers seek new ways to safeguard crops, secure stable water supply

California-based industry groups Western Growers and the California Farm Bureau praised the decision, citing the long-term benefits of taking quick action to replenish and store valuable water resources.

“Our groundwater basins are critical for supplying drinking water for our communities as well as helping our farmers produce the food supply for Californians,” California Farm Bureau President Jamie Johansson said in a news release. “We applaud Gov. Newsom’s courageous decision to divert floodwaters from this year’s storms to replenish our depleted groundwater basins. This can help protect life and property during our continuing storms.”

In August, Newsom’s administration released a plan, “ California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future ,” calling for investments in new sources of water supply, accelerating projects and modernizing how the state manages water through new technology.

“We strongly support efforts to enhance California’s long-term water supplies during wet years, including recharging our groundwater and capturing and storing surface water for our reservoirs,” Johansson said in the release.

Western Growers President and CEO Dave Puglia also commended Newsom’s water supply strategy, saying in a statement that the governor’s plan “recognizes the urgent need to build new and improve existing infrastructure and to streamline and improve the practicality of the regulatory processes that govern them. Critically, that means new and expanded surface and groundwater storage to capture wet year flood flows that are too infrequent to be missed.”

Western growers seek new ways to safeguard crops, secure stable water supply

Wed, 08 Mar 2023 22:14:55 GMT

In recent weeks, the collective sigh of relief from growers in California has been palpable. While the West continues to experience unprecedented extreme weather events and patterns, above-normal rainfall in recent months provided cause to celebrate.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the recent deluge has helped satiate the dryness and drought conditions across much of the Golden State. Added to this, drought monitor statistics have recently confirmed that the Sierra Nevada and mountain foothills in central California are now free of drought and abnormal dryness for the first time since January 2020.

“The rain has improved California soil moisture and streamflow levels, while the snow has increased mountain snowpack to much above-normal levels. Most California reservoirs have refilled with water levels near or above average, but groundwater levels remain low and may take months to recover,” according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.

Even with the unexpected windfall, Western growers are staying vigilant, continuing to scrutinize water availability with more attention than previous seasons. Those who have been around a few seasons know better than to let their guard down.

Rolling with the punches

In early March 2023, the California Department of Water Resources announced sustainability plans for the state’s groundwater basin. The agency recommended approving plans for six California groundwater sub-basins and declared six other plans to be “inadequate.”

“Passage of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in the 2014 drought year was a seismic shift in California water,” California Farm Bureau President Jamie Johansson responded in a news release. “It was never going to be easy to transition on a timeline of just 20 years to eliminate an estimated 2.5 million acre-feet of overdraft a year in our most impacted areas of the state.”

Historic droughts in recent years have shown California farmers that they can’t simply continue the status quo; the state also must invest in a more resilient, 21st century water system, Joahansson continued.

Related news: California fruit growers relieved by projected increase to water allocation

“Our groundwater supplies are critical for California farmers, including vegetable, fruit, nut and dairy producers who account for much of America’s food supply,” Joahansson said in the release. “It is important that California carefully consider solutions that protect both our aquifers and our food production.”

North of California, growing food presents different challenges.

“One of the only constants in farming is that Mother Nature throws curveballs each year in the form of weather,” Stemilt Growers Marketing Director Brianna Shales told The Packer. “We had our coldest spring in a century last year and record heat the year before. Wildfires are something we contend [with] often in Washington state.”

Despite the unpredictable weather and wildfires, the Washington-based tree fruit grower is staying put. Even with weather challenges, the state remains an ideal place for Stemilt to grow fruit because of the arid climate and the available natural resources such as water, snowpack and clean energy from hydropower, Shales said.

“Weather is still going to present obstacles in the future, but water is still a great resource that we have in Washington state,” she said. “Modern orchards have become advanced at using water in prescribed ways, and we will continue to use technology to help us make the best decisions for the fruit and for the land.”

Monitoring water flow in the orchards and at facilities is crucial to conserving the precious resource, Shales said. Soil-moisture monitoring along with precision irrigation from drip irrigation and microirrigation systems target water in exact amounts to the specific trees that need it, she said.

Cultivating climate resiliency for Southwest growers

In the face of what the University of Arizona has called “the worst water crisis in state history,” researchers are offering new farming practices and water policies that they believe can help the Southwest agricultural industry thrive while also sustaining the threatened ecosystem and water reserves in the Lower Colorado River Basin.

The suggestions and approaches were recently presented in an action-focused report, “Toward Water-Resilient Agriculture in Arizona: Future Scenarios Addressing Water Scarcity in the Lower Colorado River Basin.” The report is among the university’s initiatives intended to support Arizona farmers.

The university and three nonprofit organizations received a $4.7 million grant from the USDA in late 2022 to from the Arizona Partnership for Climate-Smart Food Crops, a three-year project that will help farmers throughout the state more rapidly implement climate-friendly solutions that reduce costs while promoting value-added products in the economy, according to a news release.

“This agricultural water crisis is arguably the worst in the Colorado River watershed since Arizona statehood, more than a century ago,” Gary Nabhan, a research social scientist at the Southwest Center, said in a news release. Nabhan is also the Kellogg Foundation endowed chair in Southwestern Borderlands Food and Water Security.

“It is important for the university to find and implement solutions that not only help Arizona farmers, but also assist all others who may soon be impacted by scarce resources and higher prices,” he added.

Nabhan said in the release that changes in water policy have forced farmers to look toward increased groundwater pumping to meet irrigation needs, even though aquifers are already being depleted and pumping is costly. Declining aquifers, combined with rising temperatures, increased salinization of soil, and water loss through evaporation and transpiration add more stress to the water scarcity dilemma for Arizona farmers — even if they don’t rely on surface water.

“These changes are making it increasingly difficult to grow the same crops or use the same irrigation practices that farmers across the desert Southwest have relied on for more than 100 years,” report co-author Erin Riordan said in the release.

To launch a discussion about potential adaptations in the face of the growing water crisis, University of Arizona researchers sent out a 100-question survey in August 2022 to Southwest farmers, ranchers, water policy experts, agroecologists and food systems analysts.

Solutions that address key issues brought by survey respondents and stakeholders were as wide-ranging as the issues themselves and included strategies such as:

Developing a market for reallocating water among agricultural users.
Growing more climate-appropriate crops and native plants.
Developing shaded areas or using solar panels to provide shade for agriculture.

“We hope to demonstrate that there are already potential solutions at hand that will help farmers cut input costs while garnering better prices for their harvests,” Nabhan said in the release.

The report also highlights sources of technical, legal and financial support available to help farmers adapt to an ever-changing climate as well as to shifts in water and energy availability in Arizona.

Nabhan said in the release that the agricultural industry needs to invest in a transition to water- and fuel-efficient practices that serve as economically viable adaptations to long-term water scarcity “and not just in Band-Aid remedies that don’t move the needle.”

“If we can stabilize or increase crop value per acre while cutting water and energy costs, everyone stands to gain over the long haul,” he added.

California fruit growers relieved by projected increase to water allocation

Thu, 23 Feb 2023 15:13:27 GMT

The California Department of Water Resources announced modest increases in forecasted State Water Project deliveries this year, in part because of early gains in the Sierra snowpack. The department now expects to deliver 35% of requested water supplies, up from 30% forecasted in January, according to a news release.

According to the department, record-breaking atmospheric rivers that flooded the state in January gave way to a mostly dry February that saw less than an inch of precipitation statewide.

The Fresno, Calif.-based California Fresh Fruit Association expressed relief in response to the initial water allocation of 35%.

“After two years of receiving an initial 0% allocation, the California Fresh Fruit Association and our members are grateful for the 35% that will go to the Central Valley Project contract holders,” Ian LeMay, president of the association, said in a news release.

Having a reliable water supply is critical for California’s fruit growers, packers and shippers to continue growing fresh fruit for the nation, LeMay added. The association said in the release that it will continue to advocate for needed changes to water regulations, along with additional water conveyance and infrastructure solutions at the federal and state levels.

Related news: Will There Be A Lettuce Shortage This Year As Parts of Drought-Plagued California Are Now Flooding?

“After experiencing significant rainfall in December and January, it has been made even more apparent California’s need for improvements to our storage and conveyance infrastructure, as well as changes to the regulations that manage our water systems. I cannot help but wonder how much higher this allocation could have been with the ability to capture more water during the wet periods,” LeMay said in the release.

The California State Water Project will continue to optimize water storage in Lake Oroville to support environmental needs in the summer and allow for carryover storage for next year if the spring becomes extremely dry, according to the release from the state water resources department. Additionally, the forecasted allocation could be lowered if extreme dry conditions warrant.

“We’re hopeful that more storms this week are a sign that the wet weather will return, but there remains a chance that 2023 will be a below average water year in the northern Sierra,” California Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth said in the release. “Careful planning and the use of advanced forecasting tools will enable the department to balance the needs of our communities, agriculture, and the environment should dry conditions continue this spring and into next year.”

Will leaving farmland fallow save water in the long run? New Mexico researchers given $2M to find out

Thu, 05 Jan 2023 21:29:45 GMT

As drought risks continue to challenge farmers in the Southwest — where surface water supplies are at their lowest level in at least the past 1,200 years, exacerbating rapid decline in groundwater reserves — researchers are digging for new and better water conservation solutions.

The latest strategy being examined is the potential of fallowing — leaving cultivated land unused for a set period — to save water in agricultural operations. To advance this research, the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research awarded a $970,931 grant to New Mexico State University to work with farmers and water managers to evaluate where and when leaving cultivated land unused is an effective water-saving practice, according to a news release.

The Elephant Butte Irrigation District, NMSU, the New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute and the Thornburg Foundation matched research funding, bringing the total to $1,941,862, according to the release.

“Capitalizing on the technical expertise of farmers and water district managers is essential to driving applied research and credibly informing field operations,” Kathy Boomer, Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research scientific program director, said in the release.

Related news: Senators urge USDA to improve drought support for Western growers

Growers have used fallowing for millennia to manage crops and soils; however, it can also damage agricultural systems if implemented without thoughtful planning. Successful fallowing strategies rely on understanding how crop systems respond to field management and natural changes in soil water content.

Leveraging the experience and knowledge of growers, water managers and hydrologists could improve the understanding of these connections and create a more holistic approach to managing agricultural land management in arid climates.

“While this interdisciplinary research will support water resource management in southern New Mexico, the collaboration process they develop will provide a vital example of how to advance more effective stakeholder-engaged management plans in agricultural watersheds worldwide,” Boomer said in the release.

NMSU researchers are working to develop a hydrologic-agricultural-economic model that evaluates alternative fallowing strategies. The researchers will integrate the hydrologic modeling with remote sensing data, field measurements and socioeconomic information. This integrated data will inform where fallowing can optimize targeted benefits and estimate the cumulative benefits of fallowed fields within the project area.

The researchers will focus on the Mesilla-Rincon Valley in southern New Mexico, where the New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission is currently implementing a pilot program to reduce groundwater pumping through fallowing, according to the release.

Results from this research will inform how much and where fallowing can mitigate water shortage concerns in arid regions. The research team plans to make this project scalable and replicable to other regions by developing best practices for future collaborations, according to the release.

Senators urge USDA to improve drought support for Western growers

Thu, 08 Dec 2022 21:38:46 GMT

Despite early storms and precipitation this fall, drought conditions show no sign of reprieve in the Western U.S. headed into 2023. As the West braces for another year of drought and tightening water restrictions, a bipartisan group of 14 senators led by Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and Utah Sen. Mitt Romney is urging the USDA for federal assistance.

“The American West is in crisis. Across the major basins of the American West — including the Colorado River Basin, the Rio Grande Basin, the Great Basin, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, the Columbia River Basin, and the Arkansas-White-Red Basin — farm and ranch families hang in the balance as they grapple with a 22-year mega-drought,” the group said in a letter to the USDA . “The acute shortage of water for Western growers threatens productive farmland across our states, which are both a pillar of our rural economies and drivers of America’s food production.”

Lost food production associated with water cutbacks resulted in an estimated $1.2 billion in lost profits, payroll and taxes in 2022 alone, an increase of 42% from last year, according to a recent study by the University of California, Merced and the Public Policy Institute of California, commissioned by California’s Department of Food and Agriculture. An estimated 19,420 California farm positions were cut because of the drought.

“California is no stranger to drought, but this current drought has hit really hard in some of the typically water-rich parts of the state that are essential for the broader state water supply,” John Abatzoglou, UC Merced professor and a co-author of the report, said in a news release.

Related: Western Growers spotlights California’s historic drought in new documentary series

In their letter to the USDA, senators sought federal support for Western farmers and ranchers to conserve water, improve water infrastructure and efficiency, protect lands at risk of erosion and provide technical assistance for growers affected by drought.

“American farmers and ranchers manage over 895 million acres of ground in the United States, giving them a vital role in combating climate change risks while continuing to feed America,” the senators said in the letter. “Congress funded $20 billion for USDA agriculture conservation programs. We believe USDA should allocate these funds for agriculture conservation equally across the country to reflect the contribution of every region, including the West.

“Many of these practices, like water conservation, cover crops and restoration of western range lands’ drought resilience, provide multiple benefits such as enhanced soil carbon storage and would be eligible for various new funding sources,” the letter continued. “Other infrastructure projects such as irrigation water efficiency may be better suited to funding streams provided to USDA through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, or through other USDA programs.”

Joining Bennet and Romney as signatories on the letter are Sens. Kyrsten Sinema, Mike Lee, Ben Ray Luján, Dianne Feinstein, John Hickenlooper, Mark Kelly, Martin Heinrich, Ron Wyden, Jacky Rosen, Catherine Cortez Masto, Alex Padilla, Jeff Merkley, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell.

California Farm Bureau critical of state's preliminary water allocation for 2023

Tue, 06 Dec 2022 21:32:44 GMT

The California Department of Water Resources’ initial State Water Project allocation for the upcoming year is 5% of 2023 water supplies requested from the SWP, California’s water and power system.

“It is going to take a multi-pronged approach to successfully respond to these unprecedented drought conditions,” Kara Nemeth, director of DWR, said in a news release.

The allocations are updated monthly as snowpack and runoff is assessed, with final allocations usually confirmed in May or June, according to the DWR.

By comparison, other low initial water allocations include 5% in 2010 and 2014. Last year, the initial SWP allocation was 10%; however, due to increasing dry conditions, the final allocation was lowered to 5%.

This minimal water allocation is unwelcome news to many California farmers, business owners and residents.

“Here we go again,” California Farm Bureau President Jamie Johansson said in a news release. “This means that 23 million people and 750,000 acres of farmland are facing another year of uncertainty and economic hardships. California has failed to act on critical projects to provide additional water storage, stormwater capture and groundwater recharge that are needed to protect our farms and cities from water shortages in dry years.”

If this initial allocation remains steady, it will be the third year in a row with final water allotments confirmed at 5%, according to the release.

Related news: Surviving megadrought, Southwest citrus growers manage water wisely

“California’s dismal leadership in safeguarding our water resources harms our food production as consumers face rising prices at the grocery store. It also undercuts healthy crop production, which helps reduce carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. California must have a more coherent water plan. Our drought strategy cannot solely be a policy of managing scarcity,” Johansson said in the release.

Water priorities

According to the DWR, water supply priorities fall into four main categories:

Water for health and safety needs, as well as delta salinity control.
Water for endangered species.
Water to reserve in storage.
Water for additional supply allocations, if possible.

“Despite a wet start to the water year, conditions have dried out since that first storm, and we are still planning for a below-average water year. That means we need to prepare now for a dry winter and severe drought conditions to continue through 2022,” Nemeth said in the release. “We will be working with our federal partners and SWP contractors to take a conservative planning approach to balance limited water supplies with the needs of residents, businesses and the environment.”

Pumpkin yields down in Indiana

Mon, 17 Oct 2022 19:17:09 GMT

By mid-October, one of the telltale signs of fall is out in full force — squat, vibrant orange jack-o’-lanterns adorn front porches and apartment stoops across the U.S. This year, however, it might be a good idea for consumers to pick up their pumpkin sooner than later. Indiana, one of the nation’s top fresh market pumpkin producing states according to the USDA , reports below average yields this October, due to early summer drought conditions.

While Indiana’s reduced output doesn’t amount to a major pumpkin shortage, according to Stephen Meyers, assistant professor of weed science at Purdue University, consumers should expect fewer pumpkins available for this year’s fall harvest. Pumpkin growth relies on well-timed summer rainfall and this past summer set records in Indianapolis as the driest June on record. It also set records in Indiana as one of the hottest Junes in recorded history

“For many farms, the pumpkin season starts [in fall] as they are planted into a cover crop that is going into the ground right now. The cover crop will then be terminated in late spring or early summer, which is when the pumpkins are then planted to time with a fall harvest,” Meyers said in a news release. “For our farm, we planted and didn’t receive much, if any, rainfall for June, which doesn’t encourage much growth for the pumpkins starting out.”

Indiana is one of the nation’s largest pumpkin producers, cultivating around 6,000 acres each year. The majority of Indiana’s commercial pumpkin crop is sold to the fresh market. Large-scale operations often have irrigation systems in case of limited rainfall; however, there can also be a slight benefit to a dry summer, according to the release.

“A dry summer obviously isn’t good for seed germination, but the dryness means there is less disease pressure,” Meyers said in the release. “Pumpkins are susceptible to a number of plant pathogens, but when conditions are drier, that means fewer fungicides have to be sprayed.

Surviving megadrought, Southwest citrus growers manage water wisely

Thu, 13 Oct 2022 18:52:34 GMT

Growing fruit in the arid Southwest will keep you on your toes. Not only do California and Arizona citrus growers face the challenge of growing fruit profitably in shifting markets, but drought conditions in the southwestern U.S. continue to worsen and affect irrigation. Compounded with the recent account of fellow citrus growers in Florida suffering devastating crop loss due to Hurricane Ian, it’s reasonable to assume that there are many questions weighing heavy in growers’ minds at the start of this winter citrus season.

Navigating drought conditions

Looking ahead to 2023, extreme weather is impacting not only growers recovering from the hurricane in the Southeast, but drought conditions in the Southwest continue to worsen, with no end in sight. The megadrought that grips the Southwest has broken yet another record, according to a study just released from science journal, Nature.

According to the study, 2021’s “exceptional drought severity” tacked on another year to the prolonged, 22-year drought. From 2000 to 2022, the drought has marked the driest period in the Southwest since at least 800 A.D. with the effects of climate change intensifying the severity and adding new challenges to recover from dry conditions.

One major consequence of the drought is reduced water available for irrigating Southwest citrus crops. The Colorado River Basin which irrigates much of the Southwest, including California and Arizona, is currently weathering the effects of the megadrought, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources. Severe drought conditions mean reduced levels in Lake Mead, located on the Arizona-Nevada border, which provides water for seven states. Drought conditions also reduce river flows along with the Lower Colorado River running along the Arizona-California border, further stressing the overallocated Colorado River.

Farmers in California and Arizona are experiencing the driest conditions in the basin and mounting water restrictions are expected to continue well into the future. According to the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, both Lake Mead and Lake Powell in northern Arizona are approaching critical elevation levels and will require unprecedented management actions to protect infrastructure in both the Upper (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) and Lower (Arizona, California, Nevada and parts of Mexico) Colorado River Basins. The shortage assessment is based on the elevation of Lake Mead, which is dependent upon releases from Lake Powell.

Responding to these extreme conditions, The Central Arizona Project, a canal system built by the federal government for Arizona farmers to tap into excess Colorado River water, implemented drought mitigation reductions for Arizona agricultural users in 2022, reducing available Colorado River water by over 60%. Central Arizona Project water users have met nearly all their targeted, Tier 1 level reductions in Arizona, but current projections for CAP users indicate that escalating to a higher, Tier 2 shortage level in 2023 will be necessary.

This means continuing deep cuts to agricultural water available, as well as increasing restrictions to include reducing water available to municipal, industrial and tribal water users.

In California, low levels on the Colorado River are compounded by reduced snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, which supplies surface water for much of the Central Valley. According to the California Department of Water Resources, milder temperatures and limited precipitation are causing early and even mid-winter snow melt. This April, the surface water reached only 38% of its historic average water level.

The most recent drought in California that began in 2020, worsened when California’s Central Valley faced its driest January and February in recorded history. The seasonal pattern that worked so well to supply water in past years relied on storing water from mountain snowpack to release slowly during California’s dry spring and summers. These snowpack reserves are no longer guaranteed.

“This significant decrease in snowpack has a direct impact on water supply for Californians,” according to the California Department of Water Resource. “The warming climate already is making it harder to grow food in some parts of the world, like California , which depends on snow piling up in the Sierra Nevada mountains for irrigation. Climate models predict more serious disruption to global agriculture a few decades in the future because of shifting rainfall and extreme weather.”

Responsible water management

Sunkist has dedicated careful long-term planning as a key component of its sustainability plan, according to Christina Ward, senior director of global marketing at Sunkist Growers . “We remain focused as water supply will continue to be a concern going forward, and labor increases and cost pressures continue to put added pressure on our industry,” said Ward.

Related news: Resourceful farmers adapt to a changing climate, finding new ways to combat pests and conserve water

“Responsible water management is key,” Ward continued. “Citrus farmers have long used the most advanced technology with soil moisture monitors and micro-sprinklers to water trees for just what it needs.”

At Bee Sweet Citrus, “water supplies have been tight, but adequate,” said Keith Watkins, president of farming at Bee Sweet Citrus . “Costs for producing and watering this year’s crop are substantially higher than historic [averages].”

Growers constantly ask themselves “how do I change our practices to accommodate this?” according to Edgar Gutierrez, vice president of farming operations at Limoneira , a lemon grower with ranches in both California and Arizona. What’s more, Gutierrez says responding quickly to changing prices and “scarcity of water, fuels and fertilizer” is necessary to stay competitive.

“All of a sudden, a factor in the product you were selling for a certain price changes and you must quickly adapt to be profitable. But changing practices in the field takes time,” said Gutierrez. “One of the biggest challenges in the farming industry is how do we adapt quickly in the cost model, in order to stay efficient?”

USDA boosts aid to farmers, ranchers hit by worst drought in decades

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 02:34:20 GMT

CHRISTOPHER DOERING, Gannett Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON -- Farmers and ranchers suffering through the worst drought to hit the United States in more than 50 years will receive additional help from the government, but Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack warned on Monday the department does not have the necessary tools to adequately help producers.

USDA’s latest assistance package will allow for haying and grazing to occur on Wetlands Reserve and Conservation Reserve land that have been impacted by the drought, including acres that are abnormally dry or suffering from moderate drought conditions. Until now only areas deemed to be in severe to extreme drought were eligible.

The Conservation Reserve, created in 1985, pays farmers, ranchers and other agricultural producers to idle environmentally sensitive land for 10 years or more on nearly 30 million acres. Landowners who use the land for emergency haying and grazing give up a small portion of the rent they receive. In a rare move, the USDA said on Monday farmers will be allowed to sell any hay harvested on the Conservation Reserve land.

Vilsack, in a letter to crop insurance companies, also said he has asked them to give producers who have struggled financially because of the drought extra time to pay their premiums before they are hit with a penalty. While crop insurers have extended the deadline once to Sept. 30, he has asked for it to be extended until Nov. 1 for spring crops.

“Our tools are limited,” Vilsack told reporters from Iowa after touring the southern part of the state over the weekend where he saw crops with both significant damage and others that were in “good shape.”

“We are continuing to look at ways in which we can provide help and assistance.”

Sparse rainfall and searing heat have left much of the country suffering through the worst drought since 1956. More than 60 percent of the United States is being affected, including the Midwest where crops are suffering under the poorest conditions since 1988. In Iowa, the top U.S. corn and soybean producer, all of the state is mired in moderate or severe drought. Nearly 1,300 U.S. counties, or about a third of those in the United States, have been declared as disaster areas, allowing farmers access to low-interest emergency loans and other aid packages.

Vilsack used the deepening drought to ratchet up pressure on Congress to pass a farm bill or enact other types of disaster legislation that would give the USDA a broader range of tools to help agriculture producers. “There is no greater need for this help and assistance then now. There is no excuse or reason why the House of Representatives can’t do its work,” he said..

The department had authority to operate five disaster assistance programs, but its oversight expired last September. Especially hard hit are livestock producers who do not have any disaster programs and cannot fall back on insurance program that exist for crop producers.

A new farm bill has passed the Senate but is now languishing in the House where top lawmakers have not scheduled a time to vote. While lawmakers outwardly are optimistic that Congress could still pass the farm bill before the current measure expires on Sept. 30, a short legislative calendar highlighted by a five-week recess and fundamental differences over such issues as food stamp cuts between the House and Senate stand in the way.

“These are steps in the right direction, and we’re still assessing if there is more than can be done to help farmers,” said Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. Fellow Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democrat, said the action by the USDA is evidence the administration is closely following the drought. “These are significant actions in responding to the severity of the emergency,” he said. “Of course, it would help to finish and enact the new farmbill, which contains an extension of livestock disaster programs for 2012 and future years.”

Scott VanderWal, president of the South Dakota Farm Bureau, said livestock producers are being heavily influenced by a shortage of grass and feed for their animals. Some farmers who raise alfalfa to feed their animals have seen production cut from about 2 tons per acre to 1 ton or less, he said.

“Livestock producers especially are very heavily impacted by a shortage of grass and feed,” said VanderWal who raises nearly 1,000 head of cattle. “We’ll still see a shortage of hay and hay prices are very high because of that but using CRP lands to help alleviate that problem will certainly help.”

The measures announced by the USDA on Monday are the latest in a series of steps taken by the Obama administration in the last few weeks to assist farmers and ranchers impacted by the drought.

The bone-dry conditions, which show no sign of easing, have pushed corn and soybean prices to record highs, with corn soaring 60 percent to above $8 a bushel and soybeans up 28 percent to near $17 a bushel since June. The drought has stoked fears that higher commodity prices will inevitably make their way to grocery store shelves with consumers paying more for everything from meat to breads and cereals.

--

Contact Christopher Doering at cdoering@gannett.com

The following fields overflowed:

PUBDATE = 20120723

Drought

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Signs of Improvement Into May

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Not the Same As 2012

A Critical Window Ahead

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Colorado Farmer May Be Forced to Idle 75% of Acres Due to Record-Low Snowpack

Major Basins in Trouble From Lack of Snow

On the Ground in Colorado

Shrinking Snow Line and Runoff

Economic Ripple Effects

A Narrowing Window

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Implications for Spring Planting

Impacts on South America’s Weather

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

USDA Launches New Round of Disaster Aid: What Producers Need to Know to Sign Up

Stage 2 Designed for “Shallow Losses” and Quality Loss

Specialty Crops Expected to Be a Major Share of Applicants

Producers MUST Enroll in Person, Fordyce Urges Them to Prepare Now

Billions Already Distributed And Billions More to Come

What Farmers Need to Know

1. You must enroll in person at your FSA county office.

No prefilled applications will be mailed.

2. Stage 2 covers 2023 through 2024 weather-related losses.

3. Specialty crops likely benefit most.

4. Prepare documents in advance.

Market Loss Payments Still Being Debated, Prices at Harvest Are a Concern

Cotton Farmers and Other Struggling Commodities Are Part of the Conversation

Borrower Limits Remain a Roadblock

USDA Leadership Knows the Stakes

Widespread Warmth, Lingering Drought Dominate Early November Outlook

Not Good News for Chances of Rain

Ridge Holds Firm Across the West

Pattern Shift Possible Later in November

Snow in the Forecast?

La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather

Weather Highlights from Now Through December

What a La Niña Watch Means

Early Peak, Quick Exit

Moisture Deficits Are a Big Concern

Analog Years Point to a Volatile Pattern

South America’s Split Forecast

California's Water Crisis: Farmers Warn Water Rules Could Cripple Central Valley Agriculture

From Too Much Water to Not Enough

Young Farmers Face the Same Struggles

A Political Battle Over Flows

Proponents of Current Water Flows

The Ripple Effect

“Is Farming in California’s Best Interest?”

There Are Strategies to Deal With Washington's Drought ... But They Cost

Dealing with drought on the orchard

State-level efforts to be more water resilient

When Farmers Can Expect the Next Round of American Relief Act Payments

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Rollins Says USDA Will Announce Application Process for $21 Billion in Disaster Aid Within Days

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

California almond acreage shrinks for first time in 25 years

Forecasting the remaining 2022-23 season

Californians receive first 100% water allocation since 2006

Adjusting to a highly variable new normal