Forecast

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 12:23:44 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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California Giant Berry Farms expects strong fall strawberry harvest

Fri, 07 Oct 2022 20:19:44 GMT

California Giant Berry Farms forecasts a strong fall strawberry crop for both organic and conventionally grown strawberries, leading with the Santa Maria growing region on California’s central coast as early as early to mid-October.

“Plant development and production cycles were off to a great start, trending to be an above-average production season before we ran into the recent heatwave,” Kevin Dwyer, district manager at California Giant Berry Farms , said in a news release. “Despite the heat — and the recent rains changing our production curve — we’re still on track to deliver strong volumes of the high-quality fruit California Giant is known for.”

Giant’s strawberry production is currently located in Santa Maria, Watsonville and Salinas growing regions. Salinas and Watsonville regions are expected to continue harvest through the end of October. Peak volumes of conventional and organic strawberries from Santa Maria are expected this fall pending unforeseen, extreme weather events.

This prediction is in line with California Giant’s mission and goal to produce a year-round supply of sustainably grown, high quality fresh berries.

In addition to year-round strawberry supplies, California Giant grower partner, Satsuma Farms became the first strawberry grower to achieve a Sustainably Grown certification from SCS Global Services in 2020. The Sustainably Grown certification addresses a broad range of issues related to economics, environmental stewardship and social responsibility. Satsuma Farm’s Sustainably Grown pilot program has inspired other California Giant growers to become Sustainably-Grown certified with the strategic goal to increase sustainability certifications by 50% of California Giant acreage in the next few years.

Tropical Storm Season is Far From Over

Thu, 09 Sep 2021 22:07:35 GMT

Meteorologist Matt Engelbrecht is tracking the latest storms in the Atlantic. Click on the video link to watch his complete forecast.

Cooler Temperatures on the Way for the Midwest

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 13:12:02 GMT

Meteorologist Matt Engelbrecht has an update on the chances for rain in the East, along with cooler conditions in the Midwest. Click on the video link to watch his latest forecast.

The Weather Picture Across the Country Has Snow & Thunderstorms

Fri, 15 Oct 2021 14:13:40 GMT

Meteorologist Matt Yarosewick is tracking snow on the West Coast and rain in the South. To find out where these weather systems are heading next, click on the video link to watch his complete forecast.

First Shot of Colder Air on the Way

Tue, 05 Oct 2021 13:11:07 GMT

Meteorologist Mike Hoffman takes a look at the changes coming for the jet stream and what that means for weather in the West. Click on the video link to see his latest forecast.

Weather Extremes: Heat & Snowfall!

Thu, 07 Oct 2021 13:14:04 GMT

Some areas of the country are already looking to build up a snowpack. Meteorologist Matt Engelbrecht shows us where, and what’s keeping higher temperatures in place for others. Click on the video link to watch his complete story.

U.S. now has a nearly 90% chance of seeing El Niño this summer

Fri, 19 May 2023 20:02:44 GMT

La Niña’s punishing drought left scars that will be etched in the minds of farmers in the West and Plains for years to come. As El Niño looks to make its grand return, significant weather changes could be on deck for U.S. farmers this year.

USDA’s May crop production forecast already incorporated some of the positive weather developments, penciling in record national yields of 181.5 bu. per acre for corn yield and 52 bu. per acre on soybeans.

“The thing you’ve got to remember about the new crop balance sheet is that everything in all of the new crop balance sheets is contingent on weather,” said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “USDA is assuming normal or favorable weather in regard to crop production.”

The biggest change is El Niño, which is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Forecasters at NOAA are watching the weather transition closely, and watching the timing of when the full weather development will hit the U.S.

“The signs of El Niño development that we saw last month have only grown stronger this month,” NOAA said in a blog post this week . “Additionally, we’ve pushed one more month through the dreaded spring predictability barrier. Taken together, these signals have allowed forecasters to increase their forecast confidence this month, with the likelihood of El Niño approaching 90% by summer and exceeding 90% through next fall and winter.”

NOAA says the April average sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region, which is the primary monitoring region for ENSO, was 0.1 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, which covers 1991-2020. NOAA says that value is up 0.2 degrees Celsius from March and is the first time the monthly Niño-3.4 temperature was warmer than average since April of 2020.

While most headlines highlight how it can bring historic heat around the globe, agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says it also tends to bring favorable growing conditions for crops in the Midwest.

“Should it manifest itself and be the most dominant, what we call teleconnection in the pattern, we would likely be seeing a better year overall,” said Snodgrass, the Principal Atmospheric Scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions.

Will the summer weather be like any other in history? Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, cautions farmers to be careful, because it all depends on timing.

“The El Niño for 2023 will be developing and not established which is why we [World Weather, Inc.] believe the drier bias may be farther to the west in the Midwest this year due to the strong influence of negative PDO and the more underdeveloped influence from El Niño,” he said.

As El Niño continues to creep into the picture, Snodgrass says El Niño summers tend to produce strong crop yields.

“Since 1970, we’ve had 17 El Niño summers and 14 of them had trendline yields slightly above that. This means we generally think of El Niño summers of having a more juicy atmosphere, or more stuff for thunderstorms, so we’ll keep a close eye on it,” he says.

That greenhouse-like growing weather won’t be the case across the U.S. Lerner says the summer will likely have a warmer and drier bias across the Plains, the western Corn Belt and into the Great Lakes region.

“Shots of cooler air will move through the eastern Midwest in late May, late June and late August. The west may cool down for a little while, but it should heat back up faster than the eastern Midwest,” says Lerner. “The northern Plains will be wetter biased in the balance of May and early June with the wetter bias shifting to the west and north during July and August. That should favor Montana, western and northern Dakota and areas to the north. The southern Plains (favoring Texas) will be a little wetter biased in late May and early June and again during August and September.”

Lerner said the states he’s most worried about in terms of summer moisture are Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas He thinks the best chance of moisture could fall across northern Plains, upper Midwest and eastern most corn belt, the southeastern states, the lower Delta, Texas and a part of southern Oklahoma.

“There is a strong association with abating multi-year La Niña events that occur in this solar cycle with negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with below average Midwest precipitation,” Lerner said. “This trend tends to occur in most spring seasons when these conditions have been present. However, the bias tends to be more significant in the central and eastern Midwest than in the western Midwest. Western Midwest weather tends to be wetter in these years than areas farther to the east and we are likely to see a short-term increase in western Midwest precipitation in the balance of May until the summer ridge evolves and begins to prevail.”

Most Expensive U.S. Hurricane Season

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:54 GMT

This year’s U.S. Atlantic hurricane season is officially the most expensive ever, racking up $202.6 billion in damages since the formal start on June 1.

The costs tallied by disaster modelers Chuck Watson and Mark Johnson surpass anything they’ve seen in previous years. That shouldn’t come as a complete surprise: In late August, Hurricane Harvey slammed into the Gulf Coast, wreaking havoc upon the heart of America’s energy sector. Then Irma struck Florida, devastating the Caribbean islands on the way. Hurricane Maria followed shortly after, wiping out power to all of Puerto Rico. And the season’s not over yet: It officially ends on Nov. 30.
“Given our infrastructure today, the question is: Was 2017 unusual? I think we answered that pretty well,” said Watson, a modeler at Enki Research. “2017 wins no matter what you do. At one point I was working disasters in Asia, Central America, the U.S., and Ireland. It felt like I had jet lag even though I never left the office.”

As this devastating season draws to a close, here are a few statistics that show the extraordinary strength of this year’s storms:

The season delivered 17 named storms, 10 of which became hurricanes that altogether killed hundreds across the Atlantic basin. While 2005 still holds the record, with 28 storms, the intensity and dangerous paths of this year’s tropical systems caught even seasoned forecasters off guard.
For the first time in records, three Category 4 storms hit U.S. shores, with Hurricane Harvey becoming the first major hurricane to slam the country since 2005.
Harvey also set a new tropical rainfall record with just over 60 inches (152 centimeters) in Texas, according Michael Bell, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.
Hurricane Irma , which bowled over the Florida Keys in September before threatening Tampa, set a record by maintaining Category 5 strength for 37 hours. That broke the old mark of 24 hours set by Typhoon Haiyan, Bell said.
Accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of storm power and longevity, also set a record in September, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center .
Worldwide, storms caused $369.6 billion of damage, the second-most costly year since 1960.

This hurricane season is “in the top 10 in most of the metrics we use to measure hurricane activity,” Bell said.

And we haven’t even mentioned Ophelia, a “crazy storm” that maintained hurricane strength within 12 hours of nearing Ireland, said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It was the worst tropical system to threaten Ireland since 1961.

A construction boom along U.S. shores in recent years acted as a damage multiplier this year, when nature threw its worst at beach homes, waterfront resorts, power grids and Gulf Coast refineries.

Watson’s storm costs are based on physical damages, clean-up expenses and lost business activity that isn’t recovered within a year. To account for buildings, homes and factories that weren’t around 150 years ago, his models look at storms dating back to 1871 in the U.S. and 1960 globally, and project the damages they would inflict had they occurred today.

If every hurricane that hit the U.S. in 1893 were to strike now, the cost would be $185.6 billion.

The U.S. hasn’t been the only country feel the pain this year. Typhoons and hurricanes struck countries including China and Japan, Watson said. The totals are a testament to the damage storms that hit major cities can do.

“Megacities such as New York City, Houston, or Miami in the U.S., Tokyo in Japan, or the incredible dense infrastructure around Hong Kong in China, are susceptible to a single event causing in excess of $100 billion in damages,” Watson and Johnson, a professor of statistics at the University of Central Florida, wrote in a study.

USDA calls apple production up 4%

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:09:45 GMT

The 2019 U.S. apple crop is up 4% compared with a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s first forecast .

The 2019 crop — fresh and processing crops — is forecast at 10.6 billion pounds, or 252.4 million (42-pound) cartons. That is up 4% from a year ago.

“Washington growers reported favorable summer growing weather, contributing to a crop with excellent quality and finish,” the USDA reported in its forecast.

New York growers also reported favorable growing conditions. In Michigan, a wet spring hampered pollination, according to the forecast. Below normal fruit counts in Michigan were partially offset by good fruit sizing, according to the report.

According to the USDA, the forecasts for the major apple producing states are:

California: 300 million pounds, up 20% from 250 million pounds last year;
Michigan: 1.05 billion pounds, unchanged from a year ago;
New York: 1.25 billion pounds, down 10% from 1.4 billion pounds last year;
Pennsylvania: 500 million pounds, up 2% from 488 million pounds in 2018;
Virginia: 185 million pounds, down 9% from 204 million pounds a year ago; and
Washington: 7.2 billion pounds, up 7% from 6.7 billion pounds in 2018.

The U.S. Apple Association will release its annual production forecast during its Apple Crop Outlook & Marketing Conference Aug. 23 in Chicago.

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New York apple crop on track for good harvest

Michigan apple industry expects a big crop

Finally, Some Improvements in the Drought Monitor!

Tue, 07 Sep 2021 12:18:28 GMT

Meteorologist Mike Hoffman breaks down the latest changes in the Drought Monitor, and for the first time in a while, there is some good news! Click on the video link to watch his complete forecast.

Hot Summer Temps Aren't Done with Much of the Country Yet

Tue, 24 Aug 2021 14:33:26 GMT

Meteorologist Matt Engelbrecht says hotter temperatures are on the way for a good portion of the country. He breaks it all down in his latest forecast. Click on the video link to learn more.

(Farm Journal)

Western Wildfire Smoke Being Carried All The Way to the East Coast

Wed, 28 Jul 2021 17:36:35 GMT

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Heavy Rain for the East and West Coasts

Tue, 26 Oct 2021 23:37:27 GMT

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HAPPENING RIGHT NOW: Major Winter Storm Expected to Cross Thousands of Miles and 19 States

Wed, 02 Feb 2022 14:38:07 GMT

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