Iran

Diesel Prices Are Breaking Records Across Multiple States, And Relief May Not Come in 2026

Wed, 06 May 2026 12:53:38 GMT

On Tuesday, President Trump stated that high gasoline prices are a “very small price to pay” for the ongoing war with Iran, arguing they are necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He predicted prices will “come crashing down” once the war ends. But for farmers and ranchers, diesel prices have risen more than gas, putting a further strain on already high input costs for 2026.

Trump on Oil Prices:

I looked today, it's like at 102 and that's a very small price to pay pic.twitter.com/2V8LC93wFj
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 5, 2026

To start the week, diesel prices went on another run with the national average diesel price is just 20 cents away from reaching a new all-time high. And across the country, a growing number of states aren’t waiting to get there. About six states are already seeing the national average price of diesel reach record highs.

From the Great Lakes to the West Coast, roughly a half dozen states have already smashed previous records, as a late-April dip in prices quickly faded and a fresh surge took hold.

“Diesel now averaging about $5.65 a gallon nationally. That is only about 20 cents away from a new all-time record high,” says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy . “So even though we had that short-lived break, we’re right back knocking on the door of records again.”

That “break” didn’t last long. De Haan says even though diesel prices saw a bit of a respite for April, with even prices starting to trend down in mid-April, those prices re-accelerated in the last week.

New records for diesel in:
Michigan, $6.01
Illinois, $6.01
Wisconsin $5.67
(Indiana 0.2c/gal away), $6.03
(Ohio ~19c/gal away), $5.93 https://t.co/DV0387vvMR
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) May 5, 2026

Now, the rally is showing up in state-by-state records, especially in the Midwest.

“Looking at it state by state, Great Lakes states have seen some tremendous refining issues that have really caused prices to rise dramatically,” he says. “Michigan has now set a new all-time record high for diesel over $6. Indiana is just a few tenths of a penny away from setting a new all-time record. Illinois has set a new all-time record. Wisconsin has set a new all-time record.”

And it’s not just a regional story. States in the West were some of the first to not just see the highest prices, but now also hit record levels.

“Out on the West Coast, Arizona set a record a couple of weeks ago, and Washington state is at an all-time record,” he adds. “So there are probably about a half dozen or so states that have set new all-time records, and again, the national average itself is just 20 cents away.”

Perhaps the most telling shift, though, is there’s no longer a low-price refuge.

“No states any longer have diesel averaging below $5 a gallon,” De Haan says. “Texas was the last holdout, and it now is above $5 per gallon. So across the board, $5 diesel is now essentially the floor, and in some areas, that’s actually the cheaper end of the spectrum.”

At the high end, prices are reaching extremes with California’s average diesel price now surpassing $8 per gallon.

Global Tensions Cloud Relief Outlook

With prices continuing to climb, farmers are looking for relief. What would it take to reverse course? That answer remains tied to global uncertainty.

“Relief may be a little bit elusive,” De Haan admits. “It really just depends on the daily developments in the situation between the U.S. and Iran—whether the Strait is open or not, or whether we’re in phases of escalation.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy supply, moving roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day.

“Nothing else matters to the oil market more than this waterway,” he emphasizes. “We’ve seen attacks that have pushed oil prices higher, which in turn pushes diesel wholesale prices up. You may get a little bit of day-to-day relief, but there really is no ‘coast is clear’ until there’s some sort of definitive resolution.”

And even then, he says a turnaround won’t happen overnight.

“If there is a definitive signal to the market, if the Strait reopens and both sides are aligned, prices could start falling within 48 hours,” De Haan explained. “But the rate of decline is likely to slow after that initial drop.”

Prices Likely to Remain Elevated Through 2026

Not only is the rate of decline projected to be slow, but De Haan says diesel prices aren’t likely to drop back to pre-war levels by the end of the year.

“Roughly half of the increase we’ve seen over the last couple of months could come down within the first few months of positive news,” he said. “But the other half could take many more months. We may not get back to pre-conflict diesel prices until late this year—or even into 2027.”

For agriculture, that prolonged stretch of elevated prices carries real consequences.

“When you look at what comes out of a barrel of oil, diesel only makes up about 25%,” De Haan explained. “Gasoline is a larger portion, so it’s been less impacted. Jet fuel, which is an even smaller share, has been hit the hardest. So it’s almost inverse to how much is produced.”

Why Diesel Is Climbing Faster Than Gasoline

If it feels like diesel prices are rising faster and hitting harder than gasoline, there’s a reason rooted in how a barrel of oil gets used.

“Diesel has seen more of the sticker shock compared to gasoline,” says De Haan. “And a lot of that comes down to what comes out of a barrel of oil.”

Not all fuels are created equally in supply. Gasoline makes up the largest share of a refined barrel, while diesel represents a smaller slice, making it more vulnerable when supply is disrupted.

“Gasoline is the top product flowing out of a barrel of oil, so it’s been the least impacted,” De Haan explains. “Diesel, on the other hand, only accounts for about 25% of a barrel, so it’s been more impacted when there are supply issues.”

That imbalance becomes even clearer when looking across the full spectrum of refined fuels.

“The most significant impact has actually been to jet fuel, which is only about 9% of a barrel,” he adds. “So if you look at it inversely—the smaller the share of the barrel, the bigger the impact we’re seeing right now.”

For agriculture, that dynamic matters more than most sectors.

Diesel isn’t optional on the farm. It’s essential. From planting to harvest, it powers tractors, trucks and the supply chain that moves commodities across the country.

“Diesel is the fuel that drives agriculture,” De Haan say. “And that’s why these price increases are so impactful, not just at the pump, but all the way through the economy.”

And while prices are already elevated, the full effect is still working its way downstream.

“Consumers really haven’t even seen the full onset of some of these higher prices yet,” he adds. “That’s going to continue to trickle through in the weeks ahead.”

Demand Holding...for Now

Even with these high prices, so far, demand hasn’t shown many signs of slowing.

“We have not seen much meaningful decrease in demand yet,” De Haan says. “We’ve seen very little, if any, diesel demand destruction so far, which tells you the economy is essentially preparing to pay these prices because it still needs the fuel.”

But there are warning signs ahead.

“If diesel nationally hits $6 a gallon, that’s likely when we start to see consumption slow,” he says. “For gasoline, that number is about $5 a gallon. We’re getting very close to those thresholds.”

Until then, the pressure continues to mount. And for farmers heading deeper into the growing season, that pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Diesel Prices Spike on Iran Conflict Just Ahead of Planting Season

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:56:36 GMT

Diesel prices spiked more than 60¢ combined on Monday and Tuesday.

It is a direct result of the supply cutoff through the Strait of Hormuz, says Alex Hodes, director of market strategy – energy with StoneX Financial Inc. Refined product movement is concentrated in the Strait, making this one of the biggest global disruptions for the oil market.

“A large amount of refined products, specifically diesel and jet fuel, transport through this Strait. That closure is causing panic in buyers of Middle Eastern diesel, one of which is Europe, which is kind of the primary maker of diesel prices globally. That’s dragging on NYMEX heating oil diesel prices as well,” Hodes says.

Nationwide Diesel Prices Up Sharply from 2025

After rising 10.8¢/gal. on Monday, the national average price of diesel rose another 8.1¢ Tuesday afternoon. It reached $3.929/gal. — a rise of almost 20¢ in two days, writes Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a post on X.

Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows the national average diesel price on Tuesday was up 31¢/gal. from a year ago.

Meanwhile on Wednesday morning, NYMEX heating oil futures were up nearly 68¢ from Friday at $3.26/gal. Diesel prices are based on these futures.

When compared to a year ago, NYMEX heating oil prices were up over 90¢/gal. and have risen $1.21 since December 31.

(Barchart )

They Could Climb Higher

Hodes thinks there is more upside potential for diesel fuel prices.

“Yes, I think there’s still risks that are in the market and have not really come to fruition quite yet. So ultimately, with the Strait of Hormuz closure, the question will be how long will that last,” Hodes says.

Some relief may come following a Tuesday afternoon post from President Donald Trump. He ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade at a reasonable price. He added that, if necessary, the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait.

While that will help lower the insurance costs to allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait, the shipping industry sees this as only a partial solution to the historic crisis.

“One other factor is that several Middle Eastern refineries have been attacked, and that’s over 1 million barrels per day almost offline due to those attacks. So, additional Middle Eastern refineries could be at risk, and that’s another bullish factor there,” Hodes says.

Diesel Prices Rise More Than Other Energy Products

He adds diesel has risen disproportionately more than other energy products. This is partly due to tighter global inventories.

“But the biggest one is that there’s more diesel products flowing through the Strait of Hormuz than gasoline or some of the lighter counterparts,” Hodes says.

And Asian refineries, particularly in Japan and China, have also announced they could reduce run rates at their refineries if the disruption lasts.

The Price Hike Comes at Crunch Time for Farmers

The higher prices come as diesel demand ramps up for planting.

“It is a tough time to lock in fuel costs specifically, you know, in the start of March now. So, it’s not a great time to be a consumer of fuel,” Hodes says.

Unfortunately, few farmers locked in diesel prices when they hit lows in December and early January. This was just before the polar vortex rallied prices.

It is another expense they can’t afford when farmers are moving into the 2026 growing season already facing slim-to-negative profit margins.

Conflict in Iran Ripples Through Global Fertilizer Markets, Raises Prices Even Higher

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 16:28:10 GMT

Update: President Trump took to social media on Tuesday to say he has ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of all Maritime Trade.

He also says the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary.

"Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade... If necessary, the United States Navy will begin… pic.twitter.com/pIJyFwL78j
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 3, 2026

The joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran has triggered a significant ripple effect across global markets.

While crude oil prices soared on Monday, the global fertilizer market is also rallying. This comes as conflict threatens the stability of the Strait of Hormuz.

This narrow waterway is located between Oman and Iran and links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It serves as a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy and also handles a substantial portion of the world’s fertilizer supply.

Key for Fertilizer Supplies

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer for StoneX, notes the Strait of Hormuz accounts for nearly 25% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer.

(StoneX)

“We have got three of the top 10 global urea exporters that sit in the Persian Gulf,” Linville says. “Three of the top 10 anhydrous exporters sit in the Persian Gulf. One of the world’s top five phosphate exporters sits in the Persian Gulf. And with that Strait of Hormuz continuing to stay shut out to safe passage, those tons just don’t matter anymore. They don’t exist until the Strait reopens.”

Conflict Increases Already Historically High Fertilizer Prices

Global fertilizer prices rose immediately following the attack. They moved in tandem with higher energy and natural gas prices, which are the primary feedstocks for nitrogen products.

Fertilizer prices were already at historical highs prior to the conflict. Linville reports urea markets saw the sharpest increases, followed by phosphate.

In New Orleans (NOLA), physical barges for April urea traded at $457 per ton on Friday. By Monday, prices had jumped to approximately $550 per ton.

“We have had prices up about $70 a ton from Friday afternoon trade. It’s been significant,” Linville says.

UAN and anhydrous prices have not reacted as violently, but phosphate values are not far behind.

“Phosphate, we’ve got that price up about $30 a ton from the last trade we had seen. Again, [I’m] a little surprised it’s not up more. That’s, I guess, a thankful thing that’s not up more, but I think more increases are coming. Really, the only major fertilizer that hasn’t been impacted so far is potash. But you can even make a case for that given Israel and Jordan’s importance,” he adds.

Corn-to-Fertilizer Ratio Stretches Further

He says the corn-to-fertilizer price ration was already one of the worst in history, and this has added insult to injury.

“We were already the second or third worst urea-to-corn ratio that we had been for this time of the year, this part of the calendar. This just moves that higher,” Linville explains.

(StoneX )

Timing Threats for Spring Planting

Higher prices aren’t the only problem: Supply is in jeopardy. Linville says, from a timing standpoint, it could not be worse for agriculture.

A multi-week conflict could keep some supply from getting to the U.S. in time for spring planting.

“It takes 30 days to get a vessel of urea to load in the Persian Gulf, sail it over here, hit U.S. shores, and then another three to four weeks to move that product into the interior of the nation to a point where the farmer can put their hands on it,” Linville says.

This means a vessel loading today might not be available until May 1. The window for spring application is closing quickly.

While healthy fertilizer import volumes in February provide some cushion, the industry could see a shift in acreage. Some farmers may move from corn to soybeans if nitrogen supplies do not arrive in the Corn Belt in time.

Despite Iran Tension, Pistachio Imports Safe

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:12:13 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- America’s love of the pistachio will be mostly spared from any fresh sanctions against Iran, a major world producer of the nut.

While the 2015 nuclear pact lifted sanctions on Iran, pistachios didn’t come flooding into the U.S., as growers feared. The U.S. has high tariffs on Iranian pistachios that more than triple their cost.

“While the big print said Iranian products may now enter the U.S. because the embargo was lifted, in the case of pistachios, the tariff is separate,” said Richard Matoian, executive director of American Pistachio Growers, a trade association in Fresno, California. “The small print keeps them out.”

Because of that, the U.S. only imports about 1 million pounds (454 metric tons) of pistachios from Iran each year, Matoian said. And those aren’t usually in the shell. They’re kernels -- small and green nuts that are harvested early, and which are used as a confection, on top of ice cream or the sides of cannoli, for example. Those aren’t subject to tariffs, but sanctions could block them from the U.S., Matoian said.

California produced more than 600 million pounds in 2017, which accounts for the vast majority of all U.S. output, and the world’s largest crop. Iran, according to some estimates, was around 350 million pounds that year, Matoian said.

The two countries go head-to-head on the world market, but there isn’t much impact unless allies join the U.S. in sanctions, forcing Iranian products into other markets, said Bob Klein, manager of the Administrative Committee for Pistachios.

It wasn’t always this way. Before the U.S. started growing the nut in 1976, a lot of pistachios in the U.S. were from Iran, Klein said. Then, with the onset of tariffs and embargoes during the Iran hostage crisis, the California industry began to boom.

“Global production of pistachios doesn’t meet global demand, so all the products can find a market,” Klein said. “It’s just going to shift around.”

Copyright 2018, Bloomberg

Despite Iran Tension, Pistachio Imports Safe

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 05:26:52 GMT