Mississippi River

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 12:23:44 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Barge Traffic Stops Mid-Harvest

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 20:00:58 GMT

As farmers work to harvest what USDA is calling a near-record corn crop, traffic along the nation’s waterways is a major hurdle. That has compounded issues on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers, causing grain handlers to slash basis, eating into farmers’ bottom line.

Along the Mississippi, the culprit was dry weather. As a lack of rain drained the shipping vein, farmers reported grain handlers such as Archer Daniels Midland were preparing for major shipping issues, even asking farmers to store their own grain until the issue eased. That’s as barge operators were forced to ship at half-tow, taking more time to ship the same amount of goods. As a result, barge rates skyrocketed to three-year highs.

Karl Setzer of MaxYield Grain says the issues along the rivers meant farmers are better off financially to hold on to grain for a while versus selling it at harvest.
“There’s a 500% carry in the market,” Setzer says. “That means the river market is paying merchandisers 80¢ a bushel to hold corn from now until December, resulting in better basis for farmers.”

In addition, grain buyers say record yields in the southern U.S. increased seasonal demand for barges on the lower-Mississippi this year, causing a backlog of corn and soybeans along the upper- and mid-Mississippi pools. An Arkansas farmer told Farm Journal the issue intensified so much, he feared he would have to stop harvesting in the middle of the month.

The Ohio River had two separate issues pop up. The U.S. Waterways Council says Lock and Dam 52, located near the Illinois and Kentucky border in Brookport, Ill., and Lock and Dam 53, 11 miles upstream of Cairo, Ill., are major pain points.

“When I’m asked the proverbial question, ‘What keeps you up awake at night?’ regarding the logistics system that serves agriculture, my predominant response is a lock and dam failure of significant duration during harvest season,” says Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition. “These occurrences serve to reinforce how dilapidated and susceptible to failure many of our locks and dams are along the inland waterway system.”

Steenhoek says Lock and Dam 53 is of particular interest, as it’s the last site before the Ohio River intersects with the Mississippi River.

“There are 20 lock and dam sites between Pittsburgh and the Mississippi River near Cairo, Ill. Lock and Dam 53 is one of the busiest links in the logistics chain that serves agriculture and other industries,” he says.

“A failure of greater duration would have had significant consequences. Even the temporary closure resulted in notable delays,” Steenhoek adds.

President Donald Trump also drew attention to the issue in June when he revealed his infrastructure plan using the Ohio River as a backdrop.

“Together, we will fix it,” the president said in his speech. “We will create the first-class infrastructure our country and our people deserve.”

Steenhoek says elected leaders in Washington, D.C., continue to stress the importance of outcompeting the rest of the world; however, he thinks the focus should be to outdeliver.

“Our nation’s inland waterways with our inventory of locks and dams have helped U.S. agriculture achieve the competitive advantage we enjoy,” he says. “This competitive advantage will not persist, however, if we allow these type of closures to become more and more frequent.”

Budge the Barge

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 20:00:58 GMT

Grain farmers seek waterway upgrades, but progress remains slim

As the Mississippi River cuts its way south from the Corn Belt, old age is cutting away at the waterway infrastructure used to ship commodities overseas. Locks and dams up to 90 years old can only do so much to reliably deliver increasingly large corn and soybean crops out of the U.S., producers say, and farmers can’t afford a hiccup.

“Any breakdown or delay would immediately turn into a market-moving event,” says Tim Recker, former president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association and a producer from Arlington, Iowa.

Farmers such as Recker, economists and waterway experts spoke to “Market Rally” radio host Chip Flory on the river this fall to spotlight what they describe as an overlooked asset to farmers’ bottom lines. The radio episodes, sponsored by Iowa Corn’s District 3, underscore what they say are the key factors that have converged to push waterways down the priority lists of U.S. policymakers.

By the Numbers: How River Shipments Stack Up

Locks and dams are often out of mind for landlocked farmers, yet the volume of commodities they handle is huge.

“We need to re-emphasize to farmers how important the river is as an economic driver to their operations,” explains Bob Hemesath, Iowa Corn chairman. “We need to be talking to our legislators and to our friends and neighbors.”

Back Burner. River transportation didn’t always take a back seat. “When I first got involved with the Corn Growers, the river and funding for the locks and dams was a top priority of the organization. We got behind the first Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) and helped to get it passed, but there was never any money appropriated to the legislation, so the effort kind of fell apart,” Recker says. “Then this little thing called ethanol got rolling, and the conversation changed. The river and the need for investment in the cheapest form of transportation we have to move grain into an exportable position was overshadowed.”

Recker advocates for ethanol, noting is has “brought competition for grain into the Upper Mississippi export market, and that is fantastic.” Yet he thinks it’s time to move infrastructure back to the forefront in light of low commodity prices and high-dollar infrastructure investments in South American countries that compete for global dollars.

What Does It Mean To Me?

• Vast commodity volumes depend on waterways that are decades old.

• Wider locks could add shipping efficiency and promote inland farm profits.

• South America could add competitive advantages with new infrastructure.

“A tow takes $2,000 to $3,000 an hour to operate, and when you try to push a 1,200-ft. tow through a 600-ft. lock, it takes too long,” explains producer Tim Burrack, also of Arlington. “If you can save a quarter [of a cent] to a half-cent per bushel with 1,200-ft. locks, we can save 4¢ to 6¢ per bushel by the time a barge gets to New Orleans. ... [It] could be the difference between making a sale around the world or keeping the corn in our bins.”

Improvements also would be positive by lowering the cost of freight on corn and soybeans headed down the river and on fertilizer traveling up the river, says Mark Recker, vice president of Iowa Corn and a farmer in Arlington.

“It’s a cost-savings, which means higher efficiency, and higher efficiency translates into more potential profit,” Recker says.

Maintenance Only. Work continues to make rivers passable for barges, even though it might not be at the scale many farmers wish.

“Within the region of the upper Mississippi and the Illinois waterway, a major rehabilitation is at the top of our priority list to get our locks into a reliable state,” says Tom Heinold, deputy chief of the Rock Island District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which maintains the waterway. “In the region, we have the top priority in the nation at LaGrange lock on the Illinois waterway. But we have a progression to make serious repairs to these locks and dams to keep them running.”

One potential path forward for waterway upgrades is the federal Navigation and Ecosystem Sustainability Program, which has been authorized by Congress but received no appropriations to fund work, Heinold says. The program would advance construction of 1,200-ft. locks at some downstream locations and improve reliability of locks. That could expedite the process of moving barges, which can take up to two hours.

“Now we’re talking about 30 to 40 minutes from their final approach until they’re clear and the next boat can come up and get ready,” says Sam Mathiowetz, lock master in Guttenberg, Iowa. “We’re talking about going from a two-lane county road to an interstate system.”

For now, Mathiowetz and his team spend time ensuring basic waterway infrastructure doesn’t regress further.

Rivers themselves need maintenance. “We have to maintain a channel,” Heinold says. “We have dredge crews on the Mississippi and Illinois waterways, and even as far south as New Orleans.”

Until political will grows, farmers and other advocates of U.S. waterways will continue bringing attention to their economic benefits.

“Increased export demand in the summer of 2016 has created an opportunity for us to pull grain from areas that we haven’t pulled from in 20 or 25 years,” says Russ Leuck, group manager at the barge-loading facility for Consolidated Grain and Barge in Clayton, Iowa. “This facility gives those areas access to
a global market.”

To listen to “Market Rally” every day at 2 p.m. CDT and hear the two-part special about waterway infrastructure, visit marketrallyradio.com.

Beyond the Basin: How Inland Farms Benefit From Waterway Systems

It isn’t just operations near the Mississippi, Illinois and other major rivers that benefit from waterway trade. Farms farther into the Heartland enjoy perks, too.

“Inland corn growers need that river just as much as the guys that ship grain directly into the barge market,” says Ken McCauley, past president of the National Corn Growers Association, referencing the Mississippi River.

Big rivers also support truckers’ and railroad workers’ businesses.

“We have trucks and railcars dumping grain into barges that will make it into the export channel,” says Russ Leuck, group manager at the barge-loading facility for Consolidated Grain and Barge in Clayton, Iowa. “Railroads and trucks create a domestic market for grain. Barges provide an international market for rail and trucks. It all fits together.”

Largest Recorded "Dead Zone" calls for Nutrient Loss Reduction

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:29 GMT

The Gulf of Mexico’s hypoxia zone, the “dead zone,” is 3% larger than ever before at 8,776 square miles. That’s about the size of New Jersey, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Excess nutrients leeching out of agricultural and residential soils are the primary cause of hypoxia.

“We expected one of the largest zones ever recorded because the Mississippi River discharge levels, and the May data indicated a high delivery of nutrients during this critical month which stimulates the mid-summer dead zone,” said Nancy Rabalais, Ph.D., research professor at LSU and LUMCON, who led the survey mission.

Nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus stimulate algal growth that decomposes and thereby uses up oxygen that supports plant and animal life underwater. It can force fish to move to other areas, decrease their reproductive ability and make shrimp smaller.

The Mississippi River is the primary culprit of nutrient loading from nearby agricultural production and is why states around the river have created a task force to combat the issue. The Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force was created to reduce hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico and improve water quality in the Mississippi River Basin after states submitted an assessment to EPA showing the gulf needed improvement.

The task force created the Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan with a goal of decreasing the dead zone to about 2,000 sq. miles of hypoxic water by 2015. However, at the end of 2015, the dead zone was almost 6,000 sq. miles (about the size of Connecticut), and the goal was pushed to 2035.

“Over time, the task force developed goals, and states were eventually required to create nutrient-reduction strategies,” says Tim Joice, water policy director at the Kentucky Waterways Alliance, a nonprofit that advocates for water quality in a previous interview.

Currently 12 states—Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin—have or are finalizing plans, many of which affect those in agriculture.

State nutrient strategies provide options and incentives to help reduce nonpoint-source pollution (such as agricultural fields) by lowering nutrient runoff, primarily nitrogen and phosphorus, into watersheds.

“Strategies for agricultural phosphorus-loss reduction statewide include reduce soil erosion from cropland, increase living cover on land in agricultural production and emphasize nutrient use efficiencies,” says Wayne P. Anderson of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. “For nitrogen-loss reduction in agriculture, we emphasize the four ‘Rs’: right timing, right rate, right source and right placement.”

For now, many states along the Mississippi River have voluntary plans, but that could be at risk if the dead zone continues to grow. Taking advantage of free and incentivized programs now could help ensure regulations don’t come in the near future.

“It should be viewed as an opportunity to show how progressive and innovative the agricultural community has been and continues to be,” says Rebecca Clark, communications manager for the Illinois Department of Agriculture. “It should be viewed as a way to demonstrate more mandatory or regulatory approaches are unnecessary to achieve continued improvement in soil and water conservation.”

Take the time to research your state’s nutrient reduction strategies and consider trying a few practices on a few acres next season.