Planting

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:52 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:31 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Colorado Farmer May Be Forced to Idle 75% of Acres Due to Record-Low Snowpack

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:54:11 GMT

A dry, unseasonably warm January has left much of the West staring at one of the leanest snow years in decades, raising red flags for farmers, ranchers and rural communities that depend on mountain snowpack for water. With some farmers facing water allocations near 0%, they say if nothing changes, they’ll be forced to leave valuable acres fallow — simply because they don’t have the irrigation water to support growing crops this year.

According to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), snow cover across the Western U.S. on Feb. 1 measured just 139,322 square miles — the lowest February 1 extent in the MODIS satellite record, which dates back to 2001.

At the state level, the numbers are just as stark. As of Feb. 1, Oregon, Colorado and Utah have each reported record-low statewide snowpack. NIDIS says widespread SNOTEL monitoring stations in those states date back to the early 1980s, underscoring how unusual this year’s deficit has become.

Major Basins in Trouble From Lack of Snow

Several critical water supply basins are already in severe snow drought, including the Deschutes River Basin, Humboldt River Basin, Yakima River Basin, Rio Grande Basin and the Upper Colorado River Basin. That’s important because these basins feed irrigation systems, municipal water supplies and hydropower infrastructure across the West.

For agriculture, the implications are significant. Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, storing winter precipitation and releasing it gradually during spring and summer to feed critical irrigation. When that reserve shrinks, so does confidence in irrigation allocations and summer stream flows, with the warning signs already there.

Snow water equivalent values for watersheds in the Western U.S.

(NIDIS)

January is typically a cornerstone month for snow accumulation across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Instead, much of the region received 50% or less of normal precipitation. Persistent high-pressure systems brought sunny skies and above-normal temperatures, limiting snow accumulation and even triggering melt in some areas.

On the Ground in Colorado

For Marc Arnusch, a farmer in Keenesburg, Colorado , the snow numbers translate directly into hard planting decisions — ones he’s already forced to face.

“Our issues aren’t so much market-driven. They’re driven by water scarcity,” Arnusch says. “We haven’t had any measurable moisture on our farm since early October. And so we’re really struggling on what it’s going to look like to put a crop out there in the field.”

The drought picture in Colorado is dire. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 73% of the state is faced with dry conditions. More than half of the state is seeing drought.

Arnusch says with drought already in the picture, irrigation will be vital — but that doesn’t look likely. He says his ditch district’s current water allocation sits at 0%.

“It can change. It always has, it always will,” he adds. “But imagine going with a Plan A of your crop plan. You’ve got markets on the other side that are demanding your production. How do you bridge that gap if you can’t produce?”

If conditions don’t improve, Arnusch says he may be forced to prevent plant roughly 75% of his acres this year.

“We will preventative plant, if nothing changes, three-quarters of our farming operation this year because we simply do not have the water. In a worst-case scenario, if our water allocation is zero, what do you grow with that?” he says.

Arnusch operates a 5,000-acre farm, focusing on diversified, high-value and certified seed crops to support local industries. His primary crops include certified seed wheat, certified seed barley, specialty grains for the craft brewing and distilling industry, corn, alfalfa and black-eyed peas.

Arnusch was named 2025 Top Producer of the Year and has built a successful farming career off of his ability to take bold risks while constantly searching for new sources of demand. But he says competition for limited water supplies only adds to the uncertainty this year.

“With the competing interest for water, especially growing crops this close to the Front Range, people tend to come first,” he says.

While his operation has built diversification and vertical integration, along with a network of loyal growers to help fill contracts when local production falls short, he worries about the longer-term impact to not just his farm, but the entire area.

“We had a balance sheet that will help us at least weather this storm, maybe another storm,” Arnusch says. “But I’m getting concerned of what we might erode on our balance sheet maybe two and three years out.”

Shrinking Snow Line and Runoff

Warm conditions have also shifted the snow line in the mountains. Higher elevations are holding snow, but many lower-elevation zones have seen little accumulation or outright melt.

Reduced snow cover at lower elevations can lead to earlier drying of soils and rangeland, increasing the risk of a longer and more intense wildfire season . It can also reduce runoff efficiency as spring arrives, meaning less water ultimately reaches reservoirs and canals.

For producers already watching input costs and water allocations closely, that adds another layer of uncertainty heading into planting season.

Economic Ripple Effects

Snowpack is also an economic engine in the West. Rural Western communities rely on winter recreation, agriculture and energy production tied directly to mountain snow.

The impacts are already being felt in the recreation sector, with ski areas and tourism-dependent towns facing thin coverage and shorter seasons. Water supply concerns are also mounting for agriculture and hydropower generation, sectors that depend on predictable spring runoff.

Meanwhile, other parts of the West have seen a different story. Just weeks ago, California’s snowpack and drought picture looked far more favorable, underscoring how quickly conditions can shift, for better or worse.

A Narrowing Window

A potential pattern shift could bring wetter-than-normal conditions to parts of the West leading into spring; however, forecasts still favor warmer-than-normal temperatures across large areas, which could limit how much new precipitation sticks as snow.

Abundant snowfall over the next couple of months could still reduce the worst impacts. But for now, the West’s snowpack picture is one of historically low coverage at a time of year when mountains should be steadily building their reserves.

For farmers like Arnusch, that means making contingency plans and hoping winter isn’t finished yet.

Wildfires have also ravaged the Plains over the past week. You can see why conditions have been so ripe for the devastating wildfires, and concerns about a warmer-than-normal pattern in those areas.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 23:00:27 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

Potato Plantings in 2025 Down Slightly

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 15:23:04 GMT

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released the 2025 Acreage Report on June 30. The report showed a 2% overall decline in potatoes acres planted in 2025 (912,000 acres) compared to 2024 (930,000 acres).

Most states saw very modest planting changes this year compared to last year. Colorado (55,000 acres) and Wisconsin (68,000 acres) saw potato acreage gains of 1,000 acres each. North Dakota’s potato acres declined by 1,000 acres to 72,000 acres, while Maine (52,000 acres), and Minnesota (41,000 acres) saw 2,000-acre planting declines.

Washington saw the steepest single-state, year-to-year declines in 2025 at 145,000 acres compared to 160,000 acres last year.

The report notes that Washington potatoes “were emerging ahead of schedule with 95% of the crop emerged as of June 1.” Planting in Idaho, the largest potato-growing state with 315,000 acres planted (steady with 2024), was also noted as ahead of last year with 95% of the crop emerged as of June 15.

Even with the year-to-year changes in Washington, the report didn’t contain any significant surprises for Blair Richardson, CEO of Potatoes USA.

“The relatively minor adjustments to planted acreage estimates in the other states are likely a function of the regular ups and downs related to crop rotations, projected demand, contracted acreage with processing companies and other factors,” he says. “I did not see anything that seemed out of the ordinary.”

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 12:23:44 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Close to 90,000 Farmers Share Planting Details for USDA-NASS Crop Acreage Reports, Agency Says

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 19:07:56 GMT

Crop acreage reports are a huge undertaking this time of year for the USDA National Agricultural Statistics (NASS). The agency commonly gathers intel from up to 90,000 farmers to develop the report, says Lance Honig, chief of crops for NASS.

The undertaking is big enough that the agency employs two different surveys, he told Chip Flory, Agri-Talk host, on Friday.

The acreage survey, which goes out to about 65,000 farmers, asks producers to report the number of acres they expect to plant or have already planted. In addition, this survey is used to measure grain stocks, as well.

Honig says the agency also does an area-based survey which involves sampling nearly 10,000 segments of land across the U.S. Each segment is roughly a square mile in size.

“We do that survey because producers are constantly coming in or leaving farming,” he says. “We try to identify every operation within those 10,000 segments, which translates to maybe another 25,000 producers who provide (feedback on what they’re planting).”

Honig says another benefit of the area-based survey is it sheds light on land use. “We identify field by field what’s being done, what is planted or going to be planted,” he says. That information gives the agency some insights on where urban sprawl is affecting agriculture.

Honig told Flory that the agency is constantly working to get a more complete data set, so that its reports are accurate.

“We’re doing a deep dive into the processes to see if there are any steps we can take to enhance what (we’re doing),” he says.

“Everything – from the form that we use to collect information from the producers all the way through the end of the process where we publish the report – we’re looking at the entire process,” he says.

Right now, he adds, the agency’s focus is on grain stocks. “We hope to wrap that initial round of review up here in the next two or three months and see what kind of findings we have and what kind of opportunities we have moving forward to maybe make that process even better.”

Honig’s conversation with Flory is available here.

Audiobooks to Help You Enjoy Your Time in the Cab

Thu, 13 Oct 2022 19:11:11 GMT

How can you maximize your hours in the field? Listen to an audio book or two. Regardless of your interests, there are great books that can make the hours slip away. For example:

If you’re a history buff …

Undaunted Courage by Stephen Ambrose

Want a story that combines heroism, adventure, hardships and astounding sights? Look no further than this masterful telling of the Lewis and Clark expedition, which covered 8,000 miles in less than three years. Length: 21 hours, 40 minutes

The Wright Brothers by David McCullough

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina in 1903, two brothers changed history. This well-written and well-researched book tells the dramatic story about the brothers who taught the world how to fly. Learn how they reached this achievement. Length: 10 hours, 2 minutes

If you’re a sports fan …

The Boys in the Boat by Daniel James Brown

From humble backgrounds, nine men demonstrated every virtue imaginable in their quest to compete at the highest level in an elite sport. Mixed with the politics of Hitler and the 1936 Olympics, this true story couldn’t have been invented with more intensity. Length: 14 hours, 24 minutes

If you want to up your management game …

Traction: Get a Grip on Your Business by Gino Wickman

What is your farm’s vision? If it’s not clear or defined, use this book as a guide. “Without vision, you have no traction for your business,” Wickman says. Every time you revisit this book, you’ll get a fresh perspective on your operation. Length: 6 hours, 56 minutes

Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance by Angela Duckworth

Grit is about tenacity and the ability to reach a goal over a long period of time—despite challenges, adversity or external factors. Success is not just about diligence, but also about facing problems and continually coming up with solutions. Sounds like farming, right? Length: 9 hours, 22 minutes

If you like firsthand accounts …

Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis by J.D. Vance

This eye-opening book is especially powerful hearing the author read it. It follows J.D. Vance’s life from poor, working-class Appalachia to Yale Law School. He gives an intimate look into the hardships facing the working-class poor who are dealing with the pace of change. Length: 6 hours, 49 minutes

If you’re in need of a few laughs …

Good Clean Fun: Misadventures in Sawdust at Offerman Woodshop by Nick Offerman

If you’re familiar with “Parks and Recreation,” you have an idea of who the character Ron Swanson is in real life. An avid woodworker, Nick Offerman combines his humor with woodworking advice to introduce or reinvigorate the passion woodworkers celebrate in their craft. Length: 6 hours, 7 minutes

If you have a really long planting season ahead of you …

Lonesome Dove by Larry McMurtry

A love story, an adventure and an epic of the frontier, this cowboy classic might be just what you need to face a marathon planting season. Journey to the dusty Texas town of Lonesome Dove and meet an unforgettable assortment of heroes and outlaws. Length: 36 hours, 47 minutes

I-80 Planting Tour: Nebraska Farmers Make Up for Lost Ground as Dryness Concerns Mount

Wed, 05 May 2021 15:07:37 GMT

Cold temperatures in April squashed hopes for an early planting season here in Nebraska but now that farmers are in the field they’re making up for lost ground. Even several states battling drought are managing to get some planting done.

“I just couldn’t get excited about putting seed in the ground as expensive as seed is these days and as high as our input costs are why we decided to hold off,” Jim Miller, a farmer in Belden, Nebraska told Michelle Rook.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report shows 42% of the corn crop is planted in Nebraska, which is 6% ahead of the five-year average.

Mike Korth farms with his brother Mark near Randolph, Nebraska. He says the field conditions have been nearly ideal and there’s enough topsoil moisture to get the crop emerged. However, there’s no subsoil reserve.

“We are dry, and it’s a big concern,” says North. “I mean if we don’t get timely rains this area will suffer bad cuz we are dry. I mean we’ve had a few itty bitty rains here and there but they just haven’t amounted to enough. We have, our subsoil is totally depleted.

Korth’s farm is nearly 50% irrigated and he’s still optimistic that with some timely rains the dryland fields could achieve some good yields.

“I think we could,” Korth told Rook. “If everything went right, we could be on board for a bumper crop, maybe not a record crop but a bumper crop.”

Devastating Drought: Texas Farmers Say 2021 Drought Already Rivals 2011

Fri, 16 Apr 2021 14:01:26 GMT

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows from North Dakota to Texas, all the way west to California, the most severe levels of drought didn’t ease across the U.S. this past week.

While 62% of the country is seeing some level of dryness, a 2-point improvement in a week, the most extreme level of drought grew, now covering more than 9% of the country.

(Farm Journal)

Texas Extremes

All levels of drought are painted across the Texas U.S. Drought monitor. Only 8% of the state is drought-free, with 8.5% in the exceptional drought category. Around one-quarter of the state is seeing extreme drought conditions.

West Texas farmers are preparing themselves for a possible devastating impact to the 2021 crop.

“We’re extremely dry,” says Blake Fennell, a farmer in Earth, Texas. “I would say we’re giving 2011 a run for its money, but we’re probably drier than 2011 at this point.”

2011 is a year that sticks in many farmers minds in the West Texas and Texas Panhandle area. That’s when consecutive days of 100-degree temperatures, with no rainfall, meant pivots couldn’t even make it a full circle without crops shriveling up. And the dryland crop was nil.

Too Dry to Plant

The West Texas farmer says his area hasn’t’ seen significant rain fall in nearly two years.

“We’ve still got to give that crop every chance we think we can get, but at the same time, we also can’t waste a lot of money on a crop that we don’t think we’re going to have going into it,” he says.

(Farm Journal)

Cotton Crop Worries

From monitoring inputs closely, to parked planters just waiting on Mother Nature to possibly produce moisture to even get the crop out of the ground, it’s a battle that farmers in the area say will be fought all year.

“If we don’t get any significant rainfall within the next two, three or four weeks, it’s going to have a very significant impact on the cotton crop in West Texas,” Fennell says . “A 1"or 1.5" rainfall event is not going to cure the problems we’re facing today.”

Fennell says the expectations for the West Texas cotton crop are also grim.

“Abandonment looks like it’s going to be pretty high this year, just for the simple fact that there is no ground moisture to get this crop emerged,” he says.

FBI Puts Ag on Alert: Ransomware Attack Potentially Timed to Critical Seasons

Fri, 22 Apr 2022 20:40:53 GMT

Farmers and ag cooperative employees need to be on high alert this spring. That’s according to the FBI , which is predicting cyber criminals might attack the industry during planting and harvesting seasons.

Why? Cyber criminals believe their prey could be more vulnerable and willing to pay off the extortion.

Since 2021, FBI reports multiple agricultural cooperatives have been impacted by a variety of ransomware variants:

In March 2022, a multi-state grain company suffered a Lockbit 2.0 ransomware attack. In addition to grain processing, the company provides seed, fertilizer, and logistics services, which are critical during the spring planting season.
In February 2022, a company providing feed milling and other agricultural services reported two instances in which an unauthorized actor gained access to some of its systems and may have attempted to initiate a ransomware attack. The attempts were detected and stopped before encryption occurred.
Between Sept. 15 and Oct. 6, 2021, six grain cooperatives experienced ransomware attacks. A variety of ransomware variants were used, including Conti, BlackMatter, Suncrypt, Sodinokibi, and BlackByte. Some targeted entities had to completely halt production while others lost administrative functions.
In July 2021, a business management software company found malicious activity on its network, which was later identified as HelloKitty/Five Hands ransomware. The threat actor demanded a $30 million ransom. The ransomware attack on the company led to secondary ransomware infections on a number of its clients, which included several agricultural cooperatives.

These attacks resulted in service issues, production disruptions and loss of access to administrative functions.

In a public advisory , federal officials say a major disruption of grain production would impact the entire food chain.

What You Can Do

The FBI is asking those in agriculture to take defensive measures against the potential threat. Those steps include:

Regularly back up data, air gap and passwords. Make backup copies offline. Ensure copies of critical data are not accessible for modification or deletion from the system where the data resides.
Implement a recovery plan that includes maintaining and retaining multiple copies of sensitive or proprietary data and servers in a physically separate, segmented, secure location (i.e., hard drive, storage device, the cloud).
Identify critical functions and develop an operations plan if systems go offline. Think about ways to operate manually if it becomes necessary.
Implement network segmentation.
Install updates/patch operating systems, software and firmware as soon as they are released.
Use multifactor authentication where possible.
Use strong passwords and regularly change passwords to network systems and accounts, implementing the shortest acceptable timeframe for password changes. Avoid reusing passwords for multiple accounts and use strong pass phrases where possible.
Require administrator credentials to install software.
Audit user accounts with administrative or elevated privileges and configure access controls with least privilege in mind.
Install and regularly update anti-virus and anti-malware software on all hosts.
Only use secure networks and avoid using public Wi-Fi networks. Consider installing and using a virtual private network (VPN).
Consider adding an email banner to messages coming from outside your organizations.
Disable hyperlinks in received emails.
Focus on cyber security awareness and training. Regularly provide users with training on information security principles and techniques as well as overall emerging cybersecurity risks and vulnerabilities (i.e. ransomware and phishing scams).

Tools and Resources

Tips for Protecting Yourself Against Ransomware Attacks

For additional resources related to the prevention and mitigation of ransomware, visit Stopransomware.gov

CISA’s Ransomware Readiness Assessment (RRA) is a no-cost self-assessment based on a tiered set of practices to help organizations better assess how well they are equipped to defend and recover from a ransomware incident.

CISA offers a range of no-cost cyber hygiene services to help critical infrastructure organizations assess, identify, and reduce their exposure to threats, including ransomware. By requesting these services, organizations of any size could find ways to reduce their risk and mitigate attack vectors.

Watch our report on AgDay TV:

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Cyber Threats Are A Real Threat To Modern Agriculture’s Expanding Digital Infrastructure

Planters are Already Starting To Roll in These Areas

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 21:02:19 GMT

With the impending snowstorm in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, it may seem like the 2023 planting season will be off to a slow start. However, in states like Illinois and Missouri, planting is just getting started, and in drier areas of Kansas, planting is even wrapped up in some cases.

USDA released its first Crop Progress report of the season on Monday. The report shows as of Sunday, April 2, 2% of the country’s corn crop was planted. That’s right on par with both the five-year average and last year’s pace.

Texas is ahead of average, with 57% of the crop in the ground, which is 3 percentage points above both the five-year average and this time last year.

A roll call of planting progress on the U.S. Farm Report Facebook page showed the weather extremes creating issues for farmers this year. However, it also showed farmers in parts of the Midwest started to plant this week, while others farther south have already wrapped up with planting this year.

Hunter Heath says corn is already nearly 6 inches tall in his area of Texas, with wheat starting to head out. His biggest issue with planting is the same problem he sees year after year: wild hogs digging up corn seed. He posted a picture of the damage.

(Farm Journal)

Steve Clark farms in northern Oklahoma. With exceptional drought conditions in his area, he says farming this year is “not fun.” Clark was trying to hold off planting until he saw some rain, but he said he couldn’t wait any longer and feared he would lose the little moisture he does have in the soil. Clark says they’ve planted 80 acres so far.

(Farm Journal)

Chock Scammon says some farmers in his area of southeast Kansas are already finished planting. He says this area is dry and could use a rain, but most fields planted fields have been in great condition for planting this year.

Kylee Geffert is also in southeast Kansas, and says their operation is halfway done planting corn already.

Central Missouri farmers are doing spring field prep work, as well as getting started on planting this year. JJ Green is near Higginsville, Mo., and says planters are starting to roll, but with the narrow windows from Mother Nature this year, it’s all hands on deck. So, spring field work and spring planting is happening all at once.

Micky Wyatt is near Green in Johnson County, Mo. He says they started planting on Sunday. And to the south in southwest Missouri, Bryan Robertson is planting corn. He says they’ve had some showers, and those rains have been just enough to help the moisture situation in his area. However, the ponds are still low and they’ll need moisture soon.

(Farm Journal)

Jonathan Bottoms is in southeast Arkansas. He says they’re 20% planted, but with rains this week, they’ll be out of the field for several days. He says their operation is about 8% ahead of their normal planting pace.

In Pickens, Miss., it’s been too wet to plant. Terry Wynne says the corn in his area needs to be planted by mid-April, otherwise it gets too hot and dry by early summer, and corn takes a big hit on yield.

(Farm Journal)

In west central Illinois, farmers are also doing field prep and planting. Matt Bangert says they’re working ground until the rain this week, then hope to start planting soybeans.

Too Much Moisture to the North

The other extreme is haunting farmers farther north. Brandon Garaas is in northwest North Dakota. With snow covering the ground, along with more snow on the way, he says it’ll be early May before they can get in the field.

Amber Himmelspach is in North Dakota and the picture she shared on Facebook shows just how deep the snowpack is in her area. She hopes they’ll be able to get into the fields next month after the snow melts, but at this point, she jokingly said it looks like planting won’t happen until August.

(Farm Journal)

Bryan Anderson farms in Webster, S.D. He says more than 24 inches of snow is on the ground already, with another 12 to 15 inches on the way this week. He’s hoping to be in the fields around May 10.

Brian Kuipers is in central North Dakota where they already have as much as 3 to 4 feet of snow on the ground, and another 20 inches is forecast this week. At this point, he’s hoping to be planting by mid-May.

Darwin Hall is in southwest Minnesota. He says they need a lot of cooperation from Mother Nature to plant much corn before May 1.

(Farm Journal)

When could farmers in the Upper Midwest start to see some relief? Watch the latest AgDay forecast.

Desperate for Rain, Widespread Winter Storm May Not Be Enough to Cure Concerns in Areas of Texas

Thu, 03 Feb 2022 20:45:55 GMT

More than 70% of the country is still covered in drought. And while the latest winter storm was packed with needed moisture for some areas, it didn’t blanket every area needing moisture to restore depleted soils.

One Texas wheat farmer says rains and snows have been absent this year. Until this week, he hadn’t seen any measurable rainfall since he planted his wheat in November. And while those worries are sprouting concern for corn planting, which will start this month, he says his wheat crop is in very poor shape.

“It’s super dry, no subsoil moisture; it’s as dry as I’ve ever seen at this time of year at this stage,” says Todd Kimbrell, a farmer in Itasca, Texas. “In our last cold spell, we lost some tillers, some baby tillers. We have a real cold forecast coming Thursday morning. And if we don’t get moisture ahead of that, I’d say the wheat is pretty much toast. We’ve got cracks in our wheat, which maybe this has happened before, but I still don’t remember at this stage.”

Desperate for Moisture

The Kimbrells did see around an inch of moisture earlier in the week, but are now staring at sleet and brutally cold temperatures. He hopes the moisture was enough to save the wheat, but he says it’s too early to tell at this point.

“We planted early November, and we haven’t had a rain since right before we started that,” says Kimbrell. “We keep missing every little round of rain, and we’ll get just a trace, but in two weeks, we’ll be talking about planting corn here.”

Winter Wheat Worries

For wheat, the latest condition ratings for the crop fell last week, with the biggest hit in Kansas and Oklahoma.
In Kansas, just 30% of the crop is rated good to excellent, which is down 3 points from the start of the month.

In Texas, crop conditions are worse. None of the crop is rated to be in excellent condition, and only 6% is in good condition.

“I’m normally optimistic, but it is barely holding on,” says Kimbrell. “We’ve lost tillers, there’s a lot of dead foliage, burnt tips. It’s already stressed, and I just don’t see how it can handle the lower teens without moisture. And hopefully it’ll handle it with moisture.”

(Farm Journal)

When Farm Journal interviewed him, he was doing drainage work in a field, which he says is unheard of for this time of year. And top soil moisture maps confirm the dryness concerns.

“I would say we need at least an inch and a half of rain prior to corn planting,” says Kimbrell. “Most places we won’t be able to get the corn up right now, which has happened maybe once in my career. I’ve seen it pretty dry when we were planting, but it wasn’t anywhere near this dry. It’s getting pretty crazy.”

Kimbrell says heading into the growing season, conditions are drier than area farmers experienced in 2011/2012.

The 4Rs can Help Reduce the Sting of Fertilizer Supply Logistics

Thu, 17 Mar 2022 20:25:37 GMT

As U.S. farmers evaluated fertility needs, prices and prepay opportunities this past December – and wondered whether to delay purchases, hoping prices might improve before planting season – Corey Rosenbusch was doing a similar evaluation.

(Farm Journal)

“I would have never dreamed where we’d be three months later,” says Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute. “There’s even more than we anticipated, and it just keeps layering on.”

Based on what industry members tell him, Rosenbusch says an “anecdotal” estimate is 50% of the fertilizer products farmers will need this spring are in U.S. warehouses and distribution facilities.

“We’re by no means completely at that 100% mark of having everything that’s needed,” he told Farm Journal during a conversation at the 2022 Commodity Classic.

“The question is, what’s next? What should we be preparing for?” he adds.

Grab The ‘Bull’ By Its Horns
Farmers can’t fix the situation with fertilizer availability and high input cost, but they can get a better grasp on their crop fertility requirements, even now.

Rosenbusch advises farmers to lean on retailers and other agronomic advisors to help them be as efficient with products as possible.

And, once the ground thaws, he says go pull soil samples and find out what they tell you.

“If you’re not soil sampling, if you’re not using variable rate application, if you’re not using the 4R stewardship principles to be as efficient as possible with your fertilizer, now is the time to do it,” he says. “If there’s any bright light in the current market situation it’s that it really will drive farmers to adopt and use these nutrient stewardship principles in their farm.”

On The Near Horizon

As he evaluates the current fertilizer situation, Rosenbusch says the U.S. still faces potential challenges getting products brought into the country. At play are what he calls “correlated effects” – multiple factors in the marketplace that influence each other – that combined make the upcoming planting season so concerning.

Two unique, potential factors that might yet come into play this season and impact fertilizer supplies for U.S. farmers:

1. A potential CP railway strike in Canada. The U.S. gets 80% of its potash from its northern neighbor, Rosenbusch says. A rail strike could mean zero product would come across the border and into the U.S.

In a March 7 letter to President Joe Biden, The Fertilizer Institute, the National Grain and Feed Association, and 19 other members of the Agricultural Transportation Working Group requested the administration work with the Canadian government to avert a major railway labor strike and to rescind the cross-border vaccine mandate for workers moving essential commerce.

“We’ve done everything we can to urge the White House of the serious nature of this coming into the spring season,” Rosenbusch says. “We’ve got our partners in Ottawa, urging the Canadian government to get involved, because that would be a huge supply disruption to the market if something like that happens.”

2. A domino effect created by a lack of access to natural gas. Russia supplies the lion’s share of natural gas to Europe. That matters to the U.S., because nitrogen production is based on natural gas.

“So, if we are looking at a major curtailment of European nitrogen production, that is going to have, you know, significant global nitrogen ramifications,” Rosenbusch explains.

How that could potentially play out in the U.S. is farmers might have access to nitrogen but it might not be in the form they want or are accustomed to using.

“You might not find it as UAN, and you’ll have to use urea instead,” Rosenbusch says, as a for instance. “So, we will definitely need to have some flexibility in terms of the type of product to achieve your nitrogen requirements.”

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