Precipitation

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:52 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:31 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 23:00:27 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

Widespread Warmth, Lingering Drought Dominate Early November Outlook

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:07:21 GMT

It’s been an unusually warm start to November, a trend that’s gripping the West and preventing moisture from reaching areas that need it. But that trend could shift later in the month, at least in terms of temperatures.

Several parts of the U.S. experienced their warmest November days on record in 2025, including Denver, Colo., and Tucson, Ariz. Other locations like Goodland, Kan., Sidney, Neb., and La Junta, Colo., also set daily record highs. But just how high are we talking?

Denver : Broke its all-time record November high, reaching 83°F and significantly exceeding the previous record of 78°F
Tucson : Set a record for the hottest day of the year on Saturday with 88°F, then broke its own record the next day with 92°F
Cheyenne : Recorded its latest-ever 70°F
San Jose : Reached 80°F

Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe, of Brian Bledsoe Weather, says through the first half of November, he expects above-normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, with the Southeast seeing slightly cooler conditions.

“The western two-thirds of the country are just going to be a blowtorch,” he says.

Not Good News for Chances of Rain

It’s not just the warmth, but also the lack of moisture in the forecast. Bledsoe says rain chances will stay limited for most regions, especially the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast, where below-normal precipitation is likely. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies are the exceptions, potentially seeing wetter-than-average conditions.

“We’re continuing to build on some of these dry areas that have expanded across much of the country,” Bledsoe says. “If you look at the current drought monitor, there’s still a good bit of the country suffering from drought.”

The most recent look at the U.S. Drought Monitor paints a troubling picture heading into winter.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

He notes that drought persists in the Southwest, where the monsoon season failed to deliver consistent rainfall. Washington, Idaho, and northwest Montana are also struggling with dryness, while parts of the Corn Belt — and even sections of the Northeast — remain abnormally dry.

“Absolutely, we have areas we need to work on,” he says. “But the current pattern just isn’t conducive to big storms bringing widespread moisture.”

Ridge Holds Firm Across the West

Bledsoe explains a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the interior West — covering Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico — is pushing most storm systems northward.

A look at how the warmth will shift in November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

“That ridge is basically diverting the storm track,” he says. “Meanwhile, farther east — across the eastern Great Lakes and into the far eastern Corn Belt — we’ll be under the influence of a trough of low pressure. That brings a few chances for colder air and maybe some brief moisture, but it’s not a setup for big storms.”

Pattern Shift Possible Later in November

There is some hope for change as the month progresses. Long-range European models show the upper-level ridge beginning to weaken, opening the door for a more active storm track.

“As that ridge gradually breaks down, we’ll start to see less of the drier-than-average pattern,” Bledsoe says. “Areas farther north will likely see moisture first, and then hopefully that extends farther south into the Plains.”

Precipitation outlook for the first half of November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Snow in the Forecast?

While the heat was the headline to start November, and continues to be the case in the western U.S., there will be a blip of not just cooler air, but much colder air that could bring snow to the central and eastern parts of the country. But it won’t last long.

AccuWeather says you’ll need to brace for a big change this weekend and early next week in the central and eastern United States . AccuWeather meteorologists warn the weather pattern indicates a surge of cold air and at least one storm capable of producing a band of accumulating snow across parts of the Midwest, followed by lake-effect snow and perhaps a bit of snow in portions of the Appalachians to the south.

AccuWeather says cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast.

(AccuWeather)

AccuWeather is calling it “Christmastime cold” that’s on the way.
Their meteorologists say a large push of cold air arrives this weekend, which will cause conditions to drastically change.

A significant dip in the jet stream is forecast to begin this weekend for the Central and Eastern states.

“Temperatures will feel more like mid-December or even Christmastime in many places by next week,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says.

A storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

(AccuWeather )

But the cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast, according to AccuWeather.

It may be temporary, but the colder air will bring chances of accumulating snow in areas of the Midwest and the Appalachians that are farther south and rather low in elevation, according to AccuWeather. The storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

“As we see it now, the most likely time for snow showers in Chicago that can bring a small accumulation is late Saturday night to Sunday morning,” Pastelok says. “Around Detroit the most likely timing for accumulating snow showers is from Sunday morning to Sunday midday.”

While an excessive accumulation of snow is not anticipated on the roads, AccuWeather says the snow can fall at a heavy enough rate near the Interstate 94 and 80/90 corridor to make for slushy conditions in some areas.

La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:42:11 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are gearing up for a potentially volatile winter as the National Weather Service has placed the country under a La Niña Watch. But what does that really mean for the months ahead? Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions , says this winter’s pattern could be one to watch closely.

Weather Highlights from Now Through December

Expect an early-peaking La Niña, with the strongest impacts likely around Christmas.
Look for cold, snowy conditions in the north and dryness in the south.
Watch for frequent Arctic intrusions and an active Ohio Valley storm track.
Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical, especially in the Midwest.
Persistent Cotton Belt drought could influence next summer’s Corn Belt outlook.
South America faces a wetter north/drier south split, which could affect global crop markets.

What a La Niña Watch Means

The Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71% chance of La Niña conditions developing from October through December. CPC also issued a La Niña Watch , which means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months.

“La Niña just means the trade winds are fast across the equator,” Snodgrass explains. “When that happens, it tends to give us a very loopy jet stream throughout winter.”

That looping pattern is something Snodgrass says influences everything from temperature swings to precipitation.

“When you think about La Niña winters, they all have different flavors,” he says. “We’ve had four La Niñas in the last five winters. This would be the sixth one in that time frame. And the big question we have is: Is it going to deliver typical La Niña conditions?”

Historically, La Niña brings colder and snowier conditions across the northern U.S. and drier conditions in the South.

“We typically find that we’re dry from the Southwest, the Sun Belt to the Cotton Belt,” Snodgrass says. “We tend to be snowier and colder to the north — across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. La Niña winters tend to be cold, tend to snow, but that’s not a guarantee — it’s a tendency.”

Early Peak, Quick Exit

This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively short-lived.

“We think it’s going to peak early, probably right around Christmas, and probably quickly exit,” Snodgrass notes. “The big question I have is: What’s going to happen to the drought monitor between now and next April when we’re thinking about a La Niña winter?”

Moisture Deficits Are a Big Concern

Moisture is already top of mind for many growers. After an unexpectedly wet spring in some regions, conditions turned dry quickly, leaving soil moisture depleted.

“We need to get a lot of moisture before the ground freezes in parts of the Midwest,” he says. “If we can do that, we’ll lock that in and save it for spring.”

But getting there might involve a bumpy ride.

“There are a lot of indications right now that this winter could be fun,” Snodgrass says with a laugh. “When I say fun, that’s fun for me to forecast. That means most people don’t like those kinds of winters. They’re probably going to be pretty volatile — frequent but brief intrusions of really Arctic air.”

He says we recently saw a hint of that with the rain that hit the East Coast last week.

“That’ll set up an active storm track through the Ohio Valley most likely. We already saw our first nor’easter go up the East Coast just last weekend, and you look at all of that and you’re going, is this kind of the way things are going to shake down,” he adds.

If the pattern develops as expected, it could dramatically shrink drought coverage , which currently is covering 73% of the continental U.S.

“You add La Niña into the mix, and it could be a winter that takes the drought monitor from 73% maybe down to 43% or even below that,” he explains. “But the question will remain: Where did the drought stick around?”

Snodgrass is particularly concerned about lingering drought in the South.

“What I always worry about with La Niña winters is if Cotton Belt drought survives, especially in the Delta. And if it’s there by the time we get to spring, then I start to worry about Corn Belt drought the next summer,” he says. “So yes, this is going to be a critical winter for us.”

Analog Years Point to a Volatile Pattern

When asked about potential analog years, Snodgrass points to a recent and familiar one.

“The best analog is actually last year, 2024, which is kind of funny,” he says. “There are five different areas around the globe, and the ocean temperatures, plus the fall drought in the Mississippi basin, plus what’s going on in the Indian Ocean, plus what’s going on in South America — all of these things are like, hey, we just saw this. It was called last October, November.”

That year brought some memorable weather swings. Does that mean we should set ourselves up for a mild rest of fall and then a brutally cold January and February where it snows as far south as New Orleans? That’s what the U.S. experienced last winter, followed by a super wet spring.

“I hate to say it, but 2024 is kind of setting itself up to be an interesting analog to this year,” Snodgarass says. “But like I said, there’s no such thing as a perfect analog — we’ll have to sit and wait to see how it all unfolds.”

South America’s Split Forecast

La Niña’s impacts won’t be confined to the U.S.

“It tends to split South America from Brazil to Argentina,” Snodgrass explains. “Brazil tends to have a decent monsoon — tends to be wetter. They tend to love La Niña if you’re in the Cerrado. If you’re in southern Brazil, they start to get worried. They tend to see drier conditions. You get into Argentina, historically, it’s drier.”

Some areas have already received favorable early rains, while others are still waiting for the monsoon to ramp up. Not only have areas of Brazil seen good rains, but they’ve also been able to plant at a rapid pace.

“And others are going, wait a minute, we haven’t seen this monsoon get really going yet, and they’re waiting. I think it’s going to be a north versus south issue — wetter north, drier south,” Snodgrass says.

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:47 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:11:21 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:42:29 GMT

It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.

The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.

Moisture over the past 7 days shows areas of Texas through Wisconsin have seen the highest amounts of rain.

(Pivotal Weather )

Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.

“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.

The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

The next two weeks are advertised to produce above normal precipitation in the Great Plains and in this first week in the upper Midwest as well. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.

Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.

“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.

The percipitation anomalies compare March through May in 1968 to March through April in 2025.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.

“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”

Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.

These are some of the differences expected this spring and summer relative to those of 1968.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:

Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest

The summer of 1968 was wetter biased in the western and north-central U.S., while most of the Atlantic Coast States and a part of the eastern and southern Midwest were drier. While World Weather, Inc. does not believe the parallel between these two years will be quite as great this summer as it is now, but some of these tendencies should be expected.

(World Weather, Inc. )

Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.

“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”

The springs of both this year and 1968 are going to be quite similar, according to Lerner, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.

“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.

Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.

The official summer outlook may soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central high Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.

What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.

Your Next Read:
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California Avocado Commission unveils season forecast and media strategy

Tue, 31 Jan 2023 13:35:45 GMT

The California Avocado Commission forecasts a 2022-23 harvest of about 257 million pounds of avocados for its California crop. The early season assessment is down from 276 million pounds in the 2021-22 season.

“The recent California rainfall has been welcomed by our growers throughout all districts,” Jeff Oberman, president of CAC, said in a news release. “Growers have related increased sizing and crucial replenishing of water sources during my recent visits to all production regions. We do not yet know if there will be any change to the expected harvest timing, however, excitement is building from our retail partners for the kickoff of the California season.”

The majority of California’s avocado harvest — 243 million pounds — is expected to be the hass variety. The remaining forecast includes a harvest of 7 million pounds of lamb hass avocados, 6 million Gem avocados and about 1 million pounds from other commercially grown varieties in California.

Related news: Guacamole touchdown: Avocados poised to win over Super Bowl shoppers

Weather and market conditions are key factors that determine when California avocado growers will begin harvesting. Some growers may delay picking to allow the avocados more time to increase in size. Oberman said in the release that there will likely be some avocados harvested in time for the Super Bowl mid-February, with limited volume available for local promotions.

California avocado volume is expected to begin ramping up in March, with peak availability from April through July. Volume is expected to taper off through Labor Day, according to the release.

Media plan for avocado season

“The Commission’s media plan and new creative executions are in development with an expected launch in April,” Oberman said in the release. “We are eagerly anticipating peak California avocado season in the spring and summer months with additional volume for promotions and customized marketing support.”

This year CAC is continuing its advertising campaign, “the best avocados have California in them,” but adding new creative executions to keep communications fresh, the commission said. Content will include California avocado tips, grower spotlights and new creative videos that demonstrate what’s unique about California avocados.

Customized retail and foodservice promotions with targeted customers are key components of California avocado marketing support and will include recipe and video content on social media platforms.

During the avocado harvest season, the CAC geo-targets consumers near stores that offer California avocados to keep the fruit top of mind, according to the release.

Additionally, CAC’s social media program runs year-round but ramps up leading into the season. According to the release, this year’s CAC social media strategy includes:

In February, activity with targeted and promoted retailer content supports the early harvest.
In March, as California avocado supply continues to increase, social efforts will gain momentum with support across multiple channels.
Throughout the season, CAC will showcase California avocado recipes, tap into cultural moments and reinforce the California difference through education and entertainment.

California Farm Bureau critical of state's preliminary water allocation for 2023

Tue, 06 Dec 2022 21:32:44 GMT

The California Department of Water Resources’ initial State Water Project allocation for the upcoming year is 5% of 2023 water supplies requested from the SWP, California’s water and power system.

“It is going to take a multi-pronged approach to successfully respond to these unprecedented drought conditions,” Kara Nemeth, director of DWR, said in a news release.

The allocations are updated monthly as snowpack and runoff is assessed, with final allocations usually confirmed in May or June, according to the DWR.

By comparison, other low initial water allocations include 5% in 2010 and 2014. Last year, the initial SWP allocation was 10%; however, due to increasing dry conditions, the final allocation was lowered to 5%.

This minimal water allocation is unwelcome news to many California farmers, business owners and residents.

“Here we go again,” California Farm Bureau President Jamie Johansson said in a news release. “This means that 23 million people and 750,000 acres of farmland are facing another year of uncertainty and economic hardships. California has failed to act on critical projects to provide additional water storage, stormwater capture and groundwater recharge that are needed to protect our farms and cities from water shortages in dry years.”

If this initial allocation remains steady, it will be the third year in a row with final water allotments confirmed at 5%, according to the release.

Related news: Surviving megadrought, Southwest citrus growers manage water wisely

“California’s dismal leadership in safeguarding our water resources harms our food production as consumers face rising prices at the grocery store. It also undercuts healthy crop production, which helps reduce carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. California must have a more coherent water plan. Our drought strategy cannot solely be a policy of managing scarcity,” Johansson said in the release.

Water priorities

According to the DWR, water supply priorities fall into four main categories:

Water for health and safety needs, as well as delta salinity control.
Water for endangered species.
Water to reserve in storage.
Water for additional supply allocations, if possible.

“Despite a wet start to the water year, conditions have dried out since that first storm, and we are still planning for a below-average water year. That means we need to prepare now for a dry winter and severe drought conditions to continue through 2022,” Nemeth said in the release. “We will be working with our federal partners and SWP contractors to take a conservative planning approach to balance limited water supplies with the needs of residents, businesses and the environment.”

Drought Conditions Worsen in High Plains, West

Fri, 21 May 2021 19:01:35 GMT

Lots of red. That’s the prevailing color on the U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, for parts of the High Plains, particularly North Dakota, and in states throughout the Southwest and West.

In the High Plains, two diverse weather patterns are in play, according to Monitor authors, Adam Hartman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Denise Gutzmer, National Drought Mitigation Center.

The U.S. Drought monitor released Thursday shows while there were slight improvements, dryness covers more than 40% of the U.S., which is historic.

“The drought monitor has been around for more than two decades, and we have only seen four springs where we’ve seen more than 40% drought coverage in the lower 48 states,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist and an author of the monitor. “For the record, those years were 2000, 2003, and then in the wake of the big 2012, drought with the spring of 2013.”

2021 is among those years, with nearly 60% of the U.S. seeing drought, with Rippey calling the Southwest and West “ground zero” for drought this year.

Precipitation this past week did help soil moisture conditions in Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska, reducing drought in some areas, according to the weekly Monitor. However, farmers saw rain extremes in some cases, with precipitation of 3” or more.

(Farm Journal)

The Dakotas have increasingly dire conditions, however. Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation this past week warranted a further downgrade in soil conditions in the Dakotas. Drought expanded in South Dakota, as the state continues to fall behind during what usually is a climatologically wetter time of year. There are also continued reports of poor water quality in livestock water sources in northwestern parts of the state.

In North Dakota, dry, windy conditions continued what’s been an ongoing pattern throughout spring and that is predicted to continue.

“Many farmers have been forced to plant in dry soils this year, but erosion and lack of rainfall have resulted in poor and/or a lack of germination,” writes the authors. “Fire also continues to remain a high risk across North Dakota, and most counties have imposed burn restrictions. Since the beginning of the year, there have been more than 1,000 fires reported across the state, with over 100,000 acres burned.”

Sixty percent of the U.S. cow herd is now in some level of drought or dryness, because pastures aren’t greening up for grazing. That’s forcing cows to the processor in numbers not seen in a decade, according to Greg Henderson, editor of Drovers.

“The (number for) March of this year was up 10% over last year already, and April was up 4% to 5% over last year,” says Henderson. 2020 beef cow slaughter was up 7%, which was the highest beef cow slaughter since 2010.

Water levels across the West are below normal for this time of year. Above-normal temperatures over much of the West over the past 60 days has resulted in rapid snowmelt and, due to dry topsoil, much of the melt water has not made it into the rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.

(Farm Journal)

In California, the water level in Lake Tahoe is 2.5 feet lower than this time last year. There are increasing reports of reduced pasture forage, livestock requiring supplemental feed and/or being sold off, and some reports of livestock mortality. Additionally, stock ponds are running dry, and farmers have been forced to haul water in some locations.

Targeted degradations were also made in portions of Idaho as a result of deteriorating soil moisture conditions.

In the week ahead, look for the Southern and Central Plains, much of the Corn Belt, and northern tier states to remain wet. Temperatures are also forecast to remain below-normal for much of the period across the Northern tier.

“High pressure is expected to dominate over the eastern U.S., coinciding with little to no rainfall and above-normal temperatures,” the authors report.

The Southwest and Coastal California are also likely to remain dry. However, temperatures are favored to remain below-normal, moderating to near-normal as the week progresses toward Tuesday, May 25.

Below-normal precipitation is expected in the Southeast U.S. and along the East Coast, with enhanced probabilities in the deep South and Florida, the authors report. Below-normal precipitation is also expected for the Central Pacific Coast, Great Basin, and Eastern Rockies to the High Plains.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report is available here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Most Expensive U.S. Hurricane Season

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:54 GMT

This year’s U.S. Atlantic hurricane season is officially the most expensive ever, racking up $202.6 billion in damages since the formal start on June 1.

The costs tallied by disaster modelers Chuck Watson and Mark Johnson surpass anything they’ve seen in previous years. That shouldn’t come as a complete surprise: In late August, Hurricane Harvey slammed into the Gulf Coast, wreaking havoc upon the heart of America’s energy sector. Then Irma struck Florida, devastating the Caribbean islands on the way. Hurricane Maria followed shortly after, wiping out power to all of Puerto Rico. And the season’s not over yet: It officially ends on Nov. 30.
“Given our infrastructure today, the question is: Was 2017 unusual? I think we answered that pretty well,” said Watson, a modeler at Enki Research. “2017 wins no matter what you do. At one point I was working disasters in Asia, Central America, the U.S., and Ireland. It felt like I had jet lag even though I never left the office.”

As this devastating season draws to a close, here are a few statistics that show the extraordinary strength of this year’s storms:

The season delivered 17 named storms, 10 of which became hurricanes that altogether killed hundreds across the Atlantic basin. While 2005 still holds the record, with 28 storms, the intensity and dangerous paths of this year’s tropical systems caught even seasoned forecasters off guard.
For the first time in records, three Category 4 storms hit U.S. shores, with Hurricane Harvey becoming the first major hurricane to slam the country since 2005.
Harvey also set a new tropical rainfall record with just over 60 inches (152 centimeters) in Texas, according Michael Bell, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.
Hurricane Irma , which bowled over the Florida Keys in September before threatening Tampa, set a record by maintaining Category 5 strength for 37 hours. That broke the old mark of 24 hours set by Typhoon Haiyan, Bell said.
Accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of storm power and longevity, also set a record in September, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center .
Worldwide, storms caused $369.6 billion of damage, the second-most costly year since 1960.

This hurricane season is “in the top 10 in most of the metrics we use to measure hurricane activity,” Bell said.

And we haven’t even mentioned Ophelia, a “crazy storm” that maintained hurricane strength within 12 hours of nearing Ireland, said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It was the worst tropical system to threaten Ireland since 1961.

A construction boom along U.S. shores in recent years acted as a damage multiplier this year, when nature threw its worst at beach homes, waterfront resorts, power grids and Gulf Coast refineries.

Watson’s storm costs are based on physical damages, clean-up expenses and lost business activity that isn’t recovered within a year. To account for buildings, homes and factories that weren’t around 150 years ago, his models look at storms dating back to 1871 in the U.S. and 1960 globally, and project the damages they would inflict had they occurred today.

If every hurricane that hit the U.S. in 1893 were to strike now, the cost would be $185.6 billion.

The U.S. hasn’t been the only country feel the pain this year. Typhoons and hurricanes struck countries including China and Japan, Watson said. The totals are a testament to the damage storms that hit major cities can do.

“Megacities such as New York City, Houston, or Miami in the U.S., Tokyo in Japan, or the incredible dense infrastructure around Hong Kong in China, are susceptible to a single event causing in excess of $100 billion in damages,” Watson and Johnson, a professor of statistics at the University of Central Florida, wrote in a study.

California strawberry industry tallies storm damage

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 15:03:18 GMT

From Ventura County in Southern California, north through San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, to Monterey and Santa Cruz counties, the onslaught of rain, wind and floods is approaching $200 million in potential damages to California’s strawberry farms, according to a news release from the California Strawberry Commission.

“We were fortunate that these storms came at a time when most farms are dormant and thus farm worker jobs have had minimum impact,” California Strawberry Commission President Rick Tomlinson said in the release. “We are thankful to the farm workers who have come back to work to help with the recovery.”

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While the majority of family farmers are cleaning up minor storm damage, some farms have experienced catastrophic conditions. Erosion has washed away an estimated 350 acres. Another 1,490 acres are awaiting flood waters to recede. In total, 1,840 acres face catastrophic losses that could reach $200 million from crop, property and equipment damage, according to the release.

The California Strawberry Commission estimates that the farms at risk for catastrophic losses include:

Santa Cruz and North Monterey counties (Pajaro River) — 573 acres
Monterey County (Salinas River) — 467 acres
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties (Santa Maria River) — 500 acres
Ventura County — 300 acres

While the economic impact is significant, most strawberry farmers experienced minor storm damage, according to the release. For the majority of the 31,852 strawberry acres in California that experienced minimal damage, the rain is a welcome change from the drought.

“The rain washes the soil and improves plant health,” Tomlinson said in the release. “As soon as we get a few weeks of sun, the strawberry plants should recover in time to start harvest in the spring. With improved soil health from the rains, we should have a good season.”

The damage estimates are preliminary, and according to the California Strawberry Commission, all farmers have been asked to report damage directly to each county.

Rains hinder early season picking for Southern California strawberries

Fri, 03 Feb 2023 13:57:47 GMT

Southern California’s strawberry season got off to a soggy start this year, with nearly 4 inches of rain falling in the Oxnard growing area in January. Average rainfall for the month is about 2.7 inches.

Despite periods of heavy rain, Southern California got off fairly easy compared to other parts of the state. The Watsonville-based California Strawberry Commission estimated that farms in Ventura County experienced 300 acres of “catastrophic losses.” Statewide, the losses were 1,840 acres.

The Oxnard district will have 6,358 acres of strawberries this season, an increase of 408 acres compared to 2022.

The rains put a damper on early season picking, which means volume should be tighter than usual for Valentine’s Day, said Jerry Moran, vice president of sales for Salinas, Calif.-based Naturipe Farms LLC.

“We expect there will be less fruit overall for the holiday, causing demand to exceed supplies for this period,” he said.

Long term, though, the rainfall will help with plant health, which will lead to improved production and quality, he said.

“Fruit quality, size and flavor should be optimal,” he said.

Naturipe expects to have an increase in supply this year because the company has slightly more acreage planted than last year, Moran said.

Oxnard, Calif.-based Bobalu Berries doesn’t plan to promote strawberries for Valentine’s Day, said Cindy Jewell, who handles marketing for the company.

“It’s almost like we’re starting from scratch right now,” she said in late January.

Workers were removing damaged fruit, and the company didn’t expect to ship many berries from its Oxnard or Santa Maria growing areas at least until the end of February.

“We’re really relying on our product coming in from Mexico right now,” she said.

Watsonville, Calif.-based Well-Pict Inc. was not shipping any strawberries out of Oxnard in early January either, said Jim Grabowski, director of marketing. Movement was scheduled to resume the week of Jan. 23.

Related news: California strawberry industry tallies storm damage

“In spite of all the rain, things are looking good,” he said Jan. 19.

The company lost three weeks of production out of Oxnard but was able to pick up much of the slack from its grower in Florida, where markets were strong in January.

“[Florida growers] were finally able to get some decent money for their product,” Grabowski said.

He anticipated a good season out of Southern California as planting picks up.

“The plants right now have a lot of fruit on them,” he said. “We’re now predicting large-size fruit, good volume and good quality.”

Well-Pict should have plenty of stems for Valentine’s Day and Easter, he added.

Visalia, Calif.-based Seven Seas Fruit, part of the St. Louis-based Tom Lange Co., currently has acreage planted in Santa Maria and Lompoc, Calif., said Brent Scattini, vice president, West Coast.

He anticipated a mid-March start to the season in those areas.

The company fared pretty well through the storms, he said.

“We did not lose any acreage, and our farms drained well, so we do not feel that we suffered any permanent damage,” Scattini said.

“All things considered, our crops look great,” he added.

Seven Seas Fruit also is sourcing some “excellent quality fruit” from Mexico, he said.

Irvine, Calif.-based Gem-Pack kicked off its Southern California program Jan. 1, said Craig Casca, who handles sales for the company.

Supplies likely will be affected by the rain, but he said it was too early to know in late January to what extent that might be.

“Stems and quality are shaping up beautifully for the Valentine’s pull,” he said.

Gem-Pack’s volume of conventional and organic strawberries should be up this season compared to last year, he said.

Like other strawberry producers, Gem-Pack’s costs are up this year because of inflation, but Casca was optimistic about the coming season.

“We are hoping to see some relief in 2023 with easing fuel costs and possible packaging too, but that is yet to be realized,” he said.

Persistent rain slows Salinas vegetable deals

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 19:00:32 GMT

By Carol Lawrence

Frequent rainfall and above-normal amounts in California’s key Salinas growing area will likely lower production volumes of spring vegetables this season and delay supplies.

Jeff Hyosaka, sales manager for Salinas-based Pacific International Marketing, said while plantings have begun, January and February rains interrupted what is usually a consistent schedule of planting, so timing for vegetables on the front-end is unknown.

“Production yields coming out are more uncertain this year than last year. This won’t be a normal situation,” Hyosaka said.

“We’ve got more extremes than we’ve dealt with (in recent years).”

Several days of frost and the frequent rain in Arizona and Mexico desert regions where the company’s winter lettuce, broccoli and cauliflower have kept workers out of the fields until later in the morning and hurt planting and growth cycles, he said.

That will probably mean lower volumes than last year, depending on the upcoming weather, he said.

“Weather that went through in the desert hampered our ability to get full production from what’s in the ground,” he said.

“It probably won’t be a seamless transition.”

Winter rainfall in the Salinas area was about 130% above normal, said Art Barrientos, vice president of harvesting for Castroville-based Ocean Mist Farms. Some vegetable crops are maturing slowly, and growth has been uneven, Barrientos said, but the effect overall has been minimal.

“However, some plantings have been moved around, which could result in lighter than ideal volumes during late spring or early summer,” he said.

Broccoli and cauliflower harvest should begin in late March, and that’s pretty close to typical years, he added. Volumes should be “fairly close.”

“However, we are anticipating periods where volumes may be lighter due to rain periods not letting us plant in a timely manner,” he said.

Barrientos doesn’t expect any interruptions transitioning to Salinas from desert growing areas.

In February, the Salinas area received four to eight inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service. Rain fell almost steadily during January, and in early March.

The rain also kept growers from doing necessary cultural practices, such as applying fertilizer, said Martin Jefferson, Northern California production manager for Duda Farm Fresh Foods’ Salinas branch.

Growers will do multiple plantings in one week during the breaks rather than planting over several weeks, he said, and that could throw off supply schedules.

“The start of the Salinas season is likely to be delayed, and there’s going to be a lot of disruptions to volumes for a good portion of spring production” of major crops, Jefferson said.

Initial harvests will likely be delayed a week or so, he estimated, and volume disruptions will continue.

Salad Savoy Corp., Salinas, has experienced only two to three days of disruption with its direct seed crops, such as chard and Tuscan kale, said Seth Karm, Salad Savoy’s CEO.

But transplants from nurseries, including cauliflower, have been delayed by about two weeks, he said.

“That’s where we will expect interesting shifts,” Karm said, adding that overlap from vegetables in Yuma, Ariz., in April will probably prevent supply interruptions.

Chilean fruit growers assess damage in wake of heavy rains

Tue, 27 Jun 2023 12:23:49 GMT

In response to heavy rains in central and southern Chile, the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association (ASOEX) is assessing damage in growing areas and the impact on water storage and irrigation infrastructure, as well as evaluating support actions to communities affected by the downpour, according to a news release.

“People are facing losses and very challenging times due to these rains. Our heart goes out to them, especially the people working in the countryside and rural areas of Chile. We are evaluating support measures for these communities and are committed to working with the authorities on what action can be taken to assist them,” ASOEX President Iván Marambio said in the release.

It has been many years since receiving rainfall like this, generating a rise in water levels in the basins and causing rivers and streams to swell, Marambio said. Although Chile was expecting rainfall that would allow the country to combat a 10-year-plus drought, communities are now facing an excess of precipitation in a very short time and with inadequate infrastructure, he said.

Related news: Chilean citrus output and exports up big, report says

“Our reports of the accumulated rainfall between June 19 and June 25 indicate there are several areas, from Valparaíso to Los Lagos, that have received more than 100mm (nearly 4 inches) of rain. Maule and Ñuble have some parts with more than 200mm of rainfall,” Marambio said in the release. “Our first concern is the people, but we are also worried about damage to canals and dams. We’ve closed intakes and canals due to excess flow, but in some cases this hasn’t been enough, and people in the surrounding areas have been impacted.”

The ASOEX president stressed the importance of working together.

“The challenges imposed by climate change must be addressed by all of us: communities, unions, the private industry, and the public sector. ASOEX will work hard to achieve this unity and improve our water infrastructure,” he said.

According to the release, ASOEX reports no direct damage to fruit, but the organization is undertaking an assessment of damage to orchards from flooding and mud. The effect on automatic irrigation systems and infrastructure is also being evaluated.

Related news: Chilean kiwifruit promotions set to start

“We will be able to better assess the full impact over the next few days,” Marambio said.

How Tropical Storm Hilary impacted one California grower

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 14:55:52 GMT

When Tropical Storm Hilary hit Southern California on Aug. 20, the typically arid Palm Springs received nearly 50% of its yearly rainfall in a matter of hours. While the deluge caused flooding , one area farmer is cautiously optimistic his operations will emerge relatively unscathed.

“Our headquarters is in Coachella Valley, where the storm was worse than other areas, but it probably had the least damage,” Mike Way, CEO of Prime Time International , a Coachella, Calif.-based farming and marketing company, told The Packer.

The timing of the storm helped.

“It’s August in Coachella — a desert with on average temperatures of 115 degrees this time of the year, so we don’t have a lot of fresh vegetables we’re harvesting now. We are actively planting for the fall and winter crops, so there were a few things in the ground when the storm hit this weekend, but the majority of the damage was just water running through the fields and some wind damage where some of the transplants had blown over.”

Prime Time grows a variety of produce including bell peppers, green beans, corn, asparagus, tomatoes and artichokes. On Aug. 21, Way surveyed Prime Time’s bell peppers and artichokes that are in the ground.

“I expected to see much more damage on the roadways and in the access to the ranches, but the valley held up pretty well under the amount of water it got,” he said. “People did miss work on Monday and Tuesday because the ground was too wet, but other than that everything seemed to be pretty good.”

Outlook on Tropical Storm Hilary’s impact

As to the storm’s longer-term effect to vegetables in the ground in the Coachella Valley, Way isn’t overly concerned.

“Here the impact is probably minimal,” he said. “We’ll do some replanting in some areas where the water came through, but there doesn’t seem to be [any issues] with bell peppers, corn and winter vegetables.

“The guys who might have some issues would be the date guys, who are harvesting dates in the next six weeks, but as for the veg guys in this valley, maybe just some replanting that will have to be done because of washout in parts of the field,” he added.

The largest bell pepper shipper in California, Prime Time also has 1,000 acres in Ventura County and just outside of Bakersfield.

In these farms, standing water could present problems down the road.

“In Oxnard and Newhall, we’re concerned that in the next few weeks [we might see] waterborne illness by powdery mildew affecting the bell pepper crop,” he said, adding that

Bell peppers don’t like rain, he says.

“We’re probably a quarter of the way through harvesting our crop there, so we’re going to have to watch out for disease because of this rain,” he said.

Way says the biggest problem created by the storm was picking delays.

“We haven’t picked since Saturday, and we won’t pick again until Thursday or Friday, so we’ll have four days where we haven’t picked a pepper, which is kind of tough on us, as we pick every day,” he said. “That’s four days off for all the employees and most everybody else, and we’re holding trucks trying to cover orders for the weekend.

“But for the long-term outlook it’s waiting to see if we get some waterborne diseases or some soil diseases because of the standing water. We fight diseases all the time, but this is one that we weren’t expecting to have to fight.”

Way says it’s too early to tell if Hilary will create a shortage or higher prices for bell peppers.

“We have enough peppers to cover most of [our orders],” he said. “If we lose 20% yield, 50% yield or the whole crop, in the long run we might see some higher prices and shorter orders, but we were ready to handle this. Our concern right now is waterborne diseases.”

More on these topics: California | Flooding | Weather