Weather - General

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 14:29:35 GMT

Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.

The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook , there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.

Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.

While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.

“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing. “The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

(ECMWF)

Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.

“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”

Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.

“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.

Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.

“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.

“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.

Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.

“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”

That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.

“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.

“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”

Brian Bledsoe says the ridge of high pressure parked over the east, but the blue in the west is what is sending energy that’s fueling storms benefiting some areas of the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.

“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”

The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.

“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”

Signs of Improvement Into May

While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.

“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.

That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.

“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”

For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.

“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.

EURO seasonal model forecast for precipitation from May to June.

(WeatherBELL)

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.

“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news,” says Bledsoe.

(NOAA Composite of previous comparison years for precipitation. )

And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”

Model guidance is echoing that trend.

“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”

Temperature trends also offer some relief.

“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.

“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.

The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.

“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.

“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.

For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 23:00:27 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:42:11 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are gearing up for a potentially volatile winter as the National Weather Service has placed the country under a La Niña Watch. But what does that really mean for the months ahead? Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions , says this winter’s pattern could be one to watch closely.

Weather Highlights from Now Through December

Expect an early-peaking La Niña, with the strongest impacts likely around Christmas.
Look for cold, snowy conditions in the north and dryness in the south.
Watch for frequent Arctic intrusions and an active Ohio Valley storm track.
Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical, especially in the Midwest.
Persistent Cotton Belt drought could influence next summer’s Corn Belt outlook.
South America faces a wetter north/drier south split, which could affect global crop markets.

What a La Niña Watch Means

The Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71% chance of La Niña conditions developing from October through December. CPC also issued a La Niña Watch , which means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months.

“La Niña just means the trade winds are fast across the equator,” Snodgrass explains. “When that happens, it tends to give us a very loopy jet stream throughout winter.”

That looping pattern is something Snodgrass says influences everything from temperature swings to precipitation.

“When you think about La Niña winters, they all have different flavors,” he says. “We’ve had four La Niñas in the last five winters. This would be the sixth one in that time frame. And the big question we have is: Is it going to deliver typical La Niña conditions?”

Historically, La Niña brings colder and snowier conditions across the northern U.S. and drier conditions in the South.

“We typically find that we’re dry from the Southwest, the Sun Belt to the Cotton Belt,” Snodgrass says. “We tend to be snowier and colder to the north — across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. La Niña winters tend to be cold, tend to snow, but that’s not a guarantee — it’s a tendency.”

Early Peak, Quick Exit

This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively short-lived.

“We think it’s going to peak early, probably right around Christmas, and probably quickly exit,” Snodgrass notes. “The big question I have is: What’s going to happen to the drought monitor between now and next April when we’re thinking about a La Niña winter?”

Moisture Deficits Are a Big Concern

Moisture is already top of mind for many growers. After an unexpectedly wet spring in some regions, conditions turned dry quickly, leaving soil moisture depleted.

“We need to get a lot of moisture before the ground freezes in parts of the Midwest,” he says. “If we can do that, we’ll lock that in and save it for spring.”

But getting there might involve a bumpy ride.

“There are a lot of indications right now that this winter could be fun,” Snodgrass says with a laugh. “When I say fun, that’s fun for me to forecast. That means most people don’t like those kinds of winters. They’re probably going to be pretty volatile — frequent but brief intrusions of really Arctic air.”

He says we recently saw a hint of that with the rain that hit the East Coast last week.

“That’ll set up an active storm track through the Ohio Valley most likely. We already saw our first nor’easter go up the East Coast just last weekend, and you look at all of that and you’re going, is this kind of the way things are going to shake down,” he adds.

If the pattern develops as expected, it could dramatically shrink drought coverage , which currently is covering 73% of the continental U.S.

“You add La Niña into the mix, and it could be a winter that takes the drought monitor from 73% maybe down to 43% or even below that,” he explains. “But the question will remain: Where did the drought stick around?”

Snodgrass is particularly concerned about lingering drought in the South.

“What I always worry about with La Niña winters is if Cotton Belt drought survives, especially in the Delta. And if it’s there by the time we get to spring, then I start to worry about Corn Belt drought the next summer,” he says. “So yes, this is going to be a critical winter for us.”

Analog Years Point to a Volatile Pattern

When asked about potential analog years, Snodgrass points to a recent and familiar one.

“The best analog is actually last year, 2024, which is kind of funny,” he says. “There are five different areas around the globe, and the ocean temperatures, plus the fall drought in the Mississippi basin, plus what’s going on in the Indian Ocean, plus what’s going on in South America — all of these things are like, hey, we just saw this. It was called last October, November.”

That year brought some memorable weather swings. Does that mean we should set ourselves up for a mild rest of fall and then a brutally cold January and February where it snows as far south as New Orleans? That’s what the U.S. experienced last winter, followed by a super wet spring.

“I hate to say it, but 2024 is kind of setting itself up to be an interesting analog to this year,” Snodgarass says. “But like I said, there’s no such thing as a perfect analog — we’ll have to sit and wait to see how it all unfolds.”

South America’s Split Forecast

La Niña’s impacts won’t be confined to the U.S.

“It tends to split South America from Brazil to Argentina,” Snodgrass explains. “Brazil tends to have a decent monsoon — tends to be wetter. They tend to love La Niña if you’re in the Cerrado. If you’re in southern Brazil, they start to get worried. They tend to see drier conditions. You get into Argentina, historically, it’s drier.”

Some areas have already received favorable early rains, while others are still waiting for the monsoon to ramp up. Not only have areas of Brazil seen good rains, but they’ve also been able to plant at a rapid pace.

“And others are going, wait a minute, we haven’t seen this monsoon get really going yet, and they’re waiting. I think it’s going to be a north versus south issue — wetter north, drier south,” Snodgrass says.

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:11:21 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:42:29 GMT

It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.

The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.

Moisture over the past 7 days shows areas of Texas through Wisconsin have seen the highest amounts of rain.

(Pivotal Weather )

Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.

“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.

The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

The next two weeks are advertised to produce above normal precipitation in the Great Plains and in this first week in the upper Midwest as well. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.

Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.

“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.

The percipitation anomalies compare March through May in 1968 to March through April in 2025.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.

“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”

Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.

These are some of the differences expected this spring and summer relative to those of 1968.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:

Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest

The summer of 1968 was wetter biased in the western and north-central U.S., while most of the Atlantic Coast States and a part of the eastern and southern Midwest were drier. While World Weather, Inc. does not believe the parallel between these two years will be quite as great this summer as it is now, but some of these tendencies should be expected.

(World Weather, Inc. )

Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.

“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”

The springs of both this year and 1968 are going to be quite similar, according to Lerner, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.

“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.

Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.

The official summer outlook may soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central high Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.

What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.

Your Next Read:
No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

Cold threat to eastern apples could extend through May

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 13:07:27 GMT

Drew Lerner — senior agricultural meteorologist, founder and president of World Weather Inc. — spoke to attendees at the “Will Weather Threaten Apple Production in 2025” webinar hosted by the U.S. Apple Association on April 10. A key takeaway is cold temperatures will continue in the Northeast into May.

“Your biggest threat for this growing season is coming in these next few weeks as we deal with additional cold weather,” he told the audience. “If we can manage to stay away from freeze damage in May, I think the Northeast will do OK.”

While acknowledging the below-average moisture levels in the Northwest, Lerner said he doesn’t see much concern or threat of cold impacting the region. He even offered that he sees the potential for “a very good year in the Yakima basin” in Washington. But the eastern reaches of apple-growing areas through the end of May are where the focus should be, he said.

“Once we clear the month of May, I think we’re home sweet home,” Lerner said.

Cold concerns for the Northeast

Lerner based his predictions, particularly for the Northeast, on cycles, weather patterns and past production years that matched up with the current year. Of particular relevance is an 18-year lunar cycle that has had repeated patterns of cold sharp surges that have damaged eastern apple crops. These cycles have occurred in 1953, 1971, 1989 and most recently 2007.

“In 2007 there was a crazy cold surge that occurred across the Midwest and parts of the plains and the mid-South area,” he said. “We saw hard freezes occur, and a lot of crop damage occurred in that particular year. This scenario that we have here in these past two or three mornings, it’s very similar to what occurred in 2007. It is, once again, repeating the cycle.”

Lerner cautioned that the cold so far this year is less intense compared to 2007, and the cold that has already hit apple-producing regions during the week of April 7 is likely to be the most potent cold of the current pattern.

“But looking at the data from 2007, we were very convinced that we would end up seeing some kind of threat this spring,” he said.

Lerner sees that threat extending into mid-May, with the second week of May being the most likely to see another cold surge. Since apple development would be a bit further advanced and the intensity of the cold is expected to be lower than in the last cycle in 2007, he said the impact of the coming cold is questionable.

“But, out of all of the apple production areas in the country right now, the areas that I would be most concerned about for another frost or freeze event to occur a little bit later in the season would be the Great Lakes region and the Northeast. Those areas will have some potential,” he said.

Cold surges can bring on additional threats, said Lerner warned, adding that higher-than-usual severe thunderstorms “seem to be in the pipeline” for the Northeast.

“We’re still going to be seeing shots of cool air coming around most of the summer,” he said. “They aren’t going to be nearly as significant as what we’ve had this week, but it will be just enough to set off those strong thunderstorms.”

Dry next year for the Pacific Northwest; cold and dry for the Northeast

Lerner reviewed the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor during the webinar, saying that all areas of apple production are slightly drier than last year, but not to threatening levels for both the Northwest and the Northeast.

Speaking about the Northwest generally, and the Yakima basin in particular, he noted that water storage levels are a bit low for the time of year.

“It’s not unusual to have those water storage levels still running a little low when we get into the first days of the spring, because all the moisture is still tied up in the mountains and the Cascades,” Lerner said.

“Is this a problem for our irrigation? I don’t think so. Not for this year,” he continued. “I am not anticipating excessive heat in the region and, for that reason, our water demand during the summer dry period is probably not going to be off the charts and we’ll probably get along OK. But, it is going to be very important that we end up with a better rainy season next year to make up the difference because we are going to be pretty short on moisture by that time.”

Speaking of the Northeast, Learner said apple growers are “kind of in good shape” regarding dryness, but dryness and cold can feed off each other.

“When you have drought, you have low humidity; dry air,” he said. “If you have dry air, you have a pretty good chance that the temperatures will swing more wildly than they would normally, so some of this cold is a byproduct of the fact that there has been a drier bias in some of the areas in the Northeast. That’s important to keep in mind especially since we are still going to be looking at some additional coolness coming up off and on in these next few weeks.”

Lerner cautioned his audience not to misunderstand.

“I’m not saying that we are going to have a widespread problem,” he said. “I’m just saying that we’re going to have more cold air that’s coming and it may be a threat, depending on how it arrives and how much warmth we get in between the occurrences.”

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 12:23:44 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Farming under a big red sun: Worker advocates push for heat-stress protections

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 20:40:46 GMT

Many regions across the U.S. have faced record-breaking heat this year, with communities and government agencies scrambling to ensure the public could cope with the severe conditions.

Heat-related fatalities far outnumber other weather-related deaths, according to the National Weather Service, and vulnerable populations — especially those working and living outside — are on the front lines enduring the stress of rising temperatures.

The recent death of a Kroger employee at a company distribution center in Memphis, Tenn., as well as the recent loss of two farmworkers in South Florida who succumbed to the record heat underscores the critical need for food industry leaders to provide adequate measures to ensure the safety of workers in extreme heat.

According to the National Institutes of health, farmworkers are 35 times more likely to die from heat exposure than workers in other industries. Despite this, there is no federal regulation mandating heat safety for outdoor workers, and to date, only four states — California, Oregon, Washington and Colorado — have adopted heat-stress standards.

Related news: Keep Farm Employees Safe During the Extreme Heat

In the absence of comprehensive regulation, advocates are seeking solutions within the fresh produce industry. Some independent programs and social responsibility certifications are seeking to ensure laborers have the support and resources they need to work outside amid heat and prolonged sun exposure.

Presidential medal-winning program tackles heat illness prevention

The Fair Food Program, founded in 2011 and implemented in farm fields from Florida to Colorado, is one such program that mandates heat protections for farmworkers. The Fair Food Program’s Heat Illness Standards is grounded in ensuring basic needs are met — providing water, shade and mandatory rest breaks — alongside education and life-saving intervention training, according to a news release.

What’s more, the Heat Illness Standards are one piece of the program’s broader Presidential medal-winning guidelines to safeguard farmworkers’ basic human rights, giving them the power to enforce these standards in the fields. In a recent Miami Herald op-ed, Princeton University professor Susan Marquis emphasized how the standards work to help farmworkers.

“The Fair Food Program’s heat illness prevention standards already are proven. Crews are staying hydrated and safe,” she said in the op-ed. “As one farmworker reported, ‘We can do more than improve day-to-day health and safety conditions. We can prevent a father or mother, a daughter or son, from losing their lives.’”

How the Fair Food Program’s heat illness protections work

To protect workers, the Fair Food Program is backed by the market power of 14 major retailers — including Walmart, McDonald’s, Whole Foods Market and Trader Joe’s — who have each pledged to halt purchases from growers who are suspended from the Fair Food Program for violating its standards, according to the release.

Additionally, The Fair Food Program is monitored by a team of independent, trained human rights investigators with the Fair Food Standards Council. The council maintains a database of its audit and complaint investigation results, including quotes from workers interviewed in the process.

“The program is credited with eliminating unsafe working conditions, wage theft, beatings, rape and forced labor for tens of thousands of farmworkers each year on participating U.S. farms,” Marquis said in the Miami Herald op-ed.

Related news: Harvesting cherries at night to protecting apples with nets, record heat takes toll on fruit crop

Thousands of farmworkers are covered by the Fair Food Program, which operates today in 10 states and three countries and includes 12 specialty crop commodities.

Expanding the program translates to more farmworker protections

To extend life-saving heat stress protections to workers in fields, farmworkers with the Coalition of Immokalee Workers are pushing for the expansion of the Fair Food Program by calling on major food brands to join, the release said.

As part of the Fair Food Program’s heat illness protections, one farmworker shared with auditors how things had changed since the program was adopted.

“The fields have changed — now, we have better wages and better treatment for everyone. Before, there was nothing like that. Before, I would be working under the sun, working hard, and I would want to stop for water,” the farmworker said. “The boss would stop me, and I would say, ‘I need water.’ He would say, ‘There’s the ditch over there, it’s got some water.’ There were no water bottles. We were exhausted, we needed water. There were no toilets.”

Related news: Florida farmworker’s death was preventable, Labor Department says

The farmworker said that, before the Fair Food Program, those who spoke out would be fired.

“But now that we are united, we have strength. We are taking steps forward, and we cannot go back,” the farmworker told Fair Food Program auditors.

Water Problems Creep Across the U.S.

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:31:41 GMT

More than ever, water is the tension bar between agriculture and society. Urban centers desperately need more of it to satisfy an increasing population. Farmers require it to produce the food for all those people.

With the Earth’s water supply finite but demands for it ever escalating, conflicts about water are becoming commonplace. Farm Journal is committed to covering agriculture’s role in this clash. The story below about water problems on farms in eastern Colorado is the first in what will be an ongoing series that promises to touch every corner of the nation.

Caught in a devastating three-year drought, state and federal water agencies in California say they will cut deliveries to farmers in much of the San Joaquin Valley by at least 85% this year. That will idle land and result in 40,000 lost jobs and $1.5 billion in income, says Richard Howitt, chair of the Agriculture and Resource Economics Department at University of California–Davis. In addition, the nation’s food security could be compromised because that region produces half our fruits, nuts and vegetables, along with other crops, such as cotton, wheat and potatoes.

(Farm Journal)

The Ogallala Aquifer, which supports millions of acres of crops in eight Plains states, continues to decline. From the late 1940s, when farmers began irrigating in the Texas Panhandle, until 1980, portions of the aquifer dropped 100' and will fall another 100' by 2020, says Jim Goeke, University of Nebraska hydrogeologist. In Nebraska, the Department of Natural Resources recently issued a preliminary ruling that the Lower Platte River Basin appears “fully appropriated.” That could lead to a moratorium on new irrigation wells.

Texas, now in the midst of a long-term drought killing both crops and cattle, faces big problems. Nearly the entire state is in some stage of drought, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor maps. A new report by Susan Combs, Texas state comptroller, projects the state’s popu-lation will double to more than 46 million by 2060, boosting water demand by about 27%. The water shortage could cost Texans about $9 billion next year and more than $98 billion by 2060, the report says. Combs calls for new water management strategies to deal with the crisis.

The Southeast, after several dry years, is no longer assured of consistent rainfall. That puts the city of Atlanta and its fast-growing suburbs in conflict with farmers as well as surrounding states. Even oystermen on Florida’s Gulf Coast complained as fresh water supply dwindled in Apalachicola Bay, which produces 90% of the state’s renowned oysters. In February, Georgia’s Gov. Sonny Perdue appointed 300 people, including farmers, to 10 regional water planning boards to monitor the situation.

Shortage of water isn’t the only difficulty facing agriculture. Quality is an issue in many watersheds and streams across the country. North Carolinians, among others, deal with ongoing battles regarding hog lagoons. Farmers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed have had to change management practices to rehabilitate its water, long important for fishing and recreation. Florida’s farmers and ranchers are dealing with stringent environmental regulations designed to protect sensitive wildlife habitat. In many other areas, farmers and ranchers are devising ways to protect watersheds and lakes with innovative fencing for livestock and conservation tillage for crops.

With our new series, we at Farm Journal will not only outline the problems but pledge to also look for answers that can help farmers and ranchers overcome this threat to their livelihoods and legacies. Technology already offers some possibilities: irrigation refinements that reduce water usage and drought-tolerant hybrids, to name just two.

Water is the overriding concern for farmers, ranchers and society as a whole. Without workable solutions, everyone loses. Share your thoughts and let us know about water
issues in your area. We want to hear from you.

Colorado’s Water War

For Darrell and Cindy Johnston, 2002 was the turning point. The worst drought in memory shattered hopes of a profit on their farm in Erie, Colo.

“We didn’t get any moisture. Snowpack was way down. We planted bone-dry. Crops sat waiting for rain. Water was allo-cated, and we had to decide which crops to irrigate. We burned our water up getting the crop up, then we were out of water. So we didn’t have a crop,” Darrell says.

The future didn’t look much better, either. Located on the Front Range just north of the Denver metropolitan area near I-25, with water supply both short and at a premium due to booming development, the Johnstons decided moving was their best option.

“When the drought hit, farms went from irrigated to dryland overnight. The problem in Erie is that the cities have control of the water and dictate how much we get. It’s been going on for 10 years now,” Darrell says.

(Farm Journal)

Though they had both grown up in the area, the Johnstons sold some of their more valuable land near the interstate. They bought land with a more assured water supply 70 miles away in Fort Morgan, Colo., using an Internal Revenue Service Section 1031 Exchange to postpone capital gains taxes. They grow corn and sugar beets on the 700 acres in Fort Morgan and wheat, barley and hay crops requiring less water on the original 2,700-acre farm, which is now managed by their 23-year-old son, Brandon.

“Buying land in Fort Morgan is the hardest decision we ever made. But if we’re going to farm, we have to have water. When the 2002 drought hit, it was eye-opening to know we did not have water to irrigate,” Cindy says.

Lots of other Colorado farmers are seeing their worlds rocked in much the same fashion. In addition to the competition for water with cities on the Front Range, eastern Colorado farmers in the Republican River Basin and the South Platte River Basin have their own serious problems.

Four hundred irrigation wells in the Republican River Basin were recently shut down to comply with a settlement involving a Kansas lawsuit that requires certain flow levels. In the South Platte River Basin, pumping from as many as 4,000 wells has been limited or curtailed due to a plan to recharge the river’s water and comply with the Endangered Species Act, says James Pritchett, a Colorado State University ag economist working on water issues.

“Crop acreage has gone from 3 million to 2½ million. We’re likely to lose 250,000 acres in the South Platte, where we’re at 1 million acres now,” Pritchett says. “We’ve been depleting the aquifer at an unsustainable rate. Within one generation, we’ll have to find a way to continue agriculture in that area with less water.”

So far, farmers losing wells have gotten little compensation. “On the South Platte, they are not compensated. They are literally high and dry. On the Republican, these are voluntary measures through CREP [Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program] and EQIP [Environmental Quality Incentives Program], a token compensation nowhere close to what they could make from full production,” says Mark Sponsler, executive director of the Colorado Corn Growers Association.

Those economics won’t pencil out long-term for farmers caught in the 21st century water wars. The Johnstons enjoy farming their new Fort Morgan land but warily eye what’s happening to other producers.

“I just cannot comprehend that government can say, ‘Sorry, you’re done, too bad.’ A judge held the fate of all those people’s lives,” Cindy says.

You can e-mail Charles Johnson at cjohnson@farmjournal.com .

California Farmers Leave Fields Fallow as Drought Grows More Dire in West

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 19:02:56 GMT

As rains drop needed moisture for areas of the country dealing with drought and in need of relief, the situation is growing more dire in the West.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows improvement in the Plains, especially in the Southern Plains. Heavy rains also falling across western portions of the High Plains this week, lessening the drought conditions in the western Dakotas. Those moisture improvements also pilling over into western Nebraska and Kansas.

(Farm Journal)

The drought has become a mainstay in California. The Drought Monitor released Thursday shows exceptional drought growing, including Kern County, one of the top ranked counties for ag production in the nation.

Northern California reservoirs contain only half the water they normally do in late spring.
Both the State Water Project and the federal Central Valley Project have announced they intend to deliver only 5% of requested supplies this year.

(Farm Journal)

As California farmers rely on Mother Nature and ground water this year, one farmer says it won’t be enough to even grow a crop, with some farmers choosing to not plant at all. Some producers are even pulling out trees.

“There are land areas out here that are going to get one acre foot of water from the ground. That’s what they’re allocated,” says Tyler Ribeiro, a dairy farmer in Tulare, California. “Good luck growing cactus on one acre foot. You’re not going to be able to feed with that you can’t grow trees out there. And we align with a lot of these tree guys in a sense of we feed their byproduct, I need those all almond hulls, I need those orange peels. I need a lot of those things. That’s how we stay efficient [as a day farmer].”

(Farm Journal)

USDA meteorologists telling AgDay there’s not much relief in sight for California and the West. Forecasters expect the drought west of the Rockies to only get worse.

Break Free from the Winter Blues: 2 Steps to Keep Seasonal Depression at Bay

Thu, 19 Jan 2023 14:17:01 GMT

It doesn’t matter if it’s spring, summer, winter or fall, weather is always on the forefront of producers’ minds. While the slower seasons can offer relief from the usual on-farm stressors, winter can drain emotional batteries.

Ted Matthews of farmcounseling.org joined AgriTalk’s Chip Flory this week to breakdown why producers aren’t immune to the wintertime blues, and how to flip your outlook on life.

1. Control What You Can

Bad days on the farm can feel like a bad life. The uncontrollables can switch anyone’s mindset from positive to negative, but that long-term outlook can lead to depression, according to Matthews.

“If I’m a farmer who has to trudge through 10” of snow to get my job done, that’s going to impact my mindset more than if there wasn’t snow,” he says. “It takes effort to see the bright side.”

Read more: Shay Foulk: Set 100 Dreams for 2023

When uncontrollable events like weather strike, Matthews finds producers who can easily manage these situations are people who have skills to know what they have control over and have learned let go of what they can’t. For producers that don’t have these skills, he offers advice:

“Find what trips your trigger and keeps you excited about getting after it every day, and think about that each morning you wake up. That’s the first step to a happier outlook,” he says.

2. Be Selective on Social Media

Aside from operating in the elements, Matthews says social media can put a wedge in producers’ outlooks.

“To me, social media or the news can create more mental difficulty because you don’t know who or what to believe, and people end up angry over things that don’t exist. It only creates more stress,” he says.

Read more: John Phipps: The COVID Hangover? Why People Are Now Drinking More

Eliminating social media isn’t necessarily feasible, nor the answer, according to Matthews. He finds the key to better mental health is in being selective about what content people are consuming.

The Solution

“It’s okay to feel sorry for ourselves that we have to work in the elements, or work to find things to do in the winter,” he says. “After you feel those things, ask yourself what you can do to make the situation better by coming up with a gameplan.”

Matthews suggests:
1. Find something to look forward to in the short-or long-term.
2. Plan a vacation
3. Socialize—go to a movie or get a bite to eat.

“Find something to break up the monotony of winter that is helpful. It might not be a complete fix to the underlying issue, but a little better is a little better.”

To hear more from Matthews, reach out to him at farmcouseling.org .

Weather Outlook: Warmer-Than-Normal Start to Fall

Mon, 14 Aug 2023 15:43:50 GMT

The forecast for September is shaping up to be warmer than normal, according to Bret Walts of BAM Weather .

“After the 15th or 18th of the month, there is a transition [the last three to five days of August] and we will start to see a warmer-than-normal start to fall for most of the Corn Belt,” Walts says. “The Midwest and upper Midwest may get some rain in late August or early September as the transition occurs, then it will be dryer toward the middle of September.”

Walts recently joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk .

“It feels like we’ve got the crop in a slow cooker and are building yield as we make our way through August,” Flory describes. “I don’t want to speed it up and finish in a hurry.”

Walts predicts the transition to a colder pattern will be later in September and into October.

Red flag areas with a potential for a rough finish for crops.

There is continued risk for dry conditions after the first week of September, Walts says, especially for the Northern Plains region.

“How dry depends on any tropical activity. If we start getting East Coast storms, it could be dryer,” he explains.

What happens to the heat down south?

Flory says the outlook does not look good for cotton crops or spring wheat: “I don’t hear anything in the forecast that will add to any yield; however, the quality might still be good.”

For the sake of Texas, it would be best if the tropical activity didn’t materialize.

“They don’t want tropical activity up the east coast. If there is, it will pull moisture away,” Walts says.

First frost of the fall.

Walts predicts a frost threat could be a week or two early for a lot of the Corn Belt. It’s common in strong El Nino years for the snap to happen in early October.

Listen to the conversation:

Keep Farm Employees Safe During the Extreme Heat

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 13:41:44 GMT

For those whose livelihood depends upon working outdoors or in less than favorable conditions, this week looks to be quite difficult with higher-than-normal temperatures and humidity predicted. Meteorologists suggest parts of the upper Midwest could experience temperatures that land them in the categories of “high alert” and “emergency.”

When temperatures reach this level, it’s critical to take them seriously. While farmers do what they need to do to ensure livestock are cool and comfortable, it is also essential to check on other farmworkers and employees. Many farm employees may lack previous farm or other outdoor employment experience, so dealing with weather-related conditions may be new to them, not to mention the difference among individuals who may or may not be acclimatized to high heat conditions, explains Melissa O’Rourke, farm management specialist with Iowa State University Extension and Outreach.

In general, she says farm workers can become overheated in one of two ways:

The heat from the environmental conditions in which they work.
An individual generates internal heat through physical labor.

In states like Washington, permanent heat rules for outdoor workers are now in effect. The overall goal is to address minimum requirements to prevent heat-related illness and reduce traumatic injuries for outdoor workers associated with heat exposure.

According to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), almost half of all heat-related deaths occur on a worker’s very first day on the job, and over 70% of heat-related deaths occur during a worker’s first week. This is because workers who are new to working in warm environments may not be acclimatized to heat. Their bodies need time to adapt to working in hot conditions.

To protect new workers from heat hazards, schedule shorter shifts in the heat, separated by breaks, and monitor new workers closely for any symptoms of heat-related illness.

Other Helpful Tips

The Farm Bureau Financial Services shares other helpful tips that can help keep employees that work outdoors safe during the heat, including:

Dress the Part

Shield yourself from the sun by covering yourself up with a wide-brimmed hat and sunglasses. OHSA recommends wearing light-colored, loose-fitting, and breathable clothing like cotton or linen. A special body-cooling vest might also be a great investment if you live in a steamy climate.

Drink Up

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends drinking 1 cup of water every 15 to 20 minutes during moderate activity. If you’re working outside in the heat, you’ll want to stay ahead of those numbers to avoid dehydration. Your urine is a good indicator as to whether you need to be drinking more water. Ideally, you want your urine to look clear. You might swear by your morning cup of joe to get you going but avoid drinking caffeine all day or adding sugary or alcoholic beverages to the mix. All of these items can dehydrate you.

Keep Your Cool

Find a shady spot where you and your team can take frequent breaks during hot weather. That could be the air-conditioned cab of your truck or even an outbuilding. Eat regular meals and include a lightly salted snack or two throughout the day for energy and balance electrolytes. If possible, schedule demanding tasks for early morning or evening when it’s cooler.

Mind Your Meds

Your body temperature might have difficulty cooling down or it may heat up more quickly if you take certain medications or have certain medical conditions. Talk to your physician before working in the heat this summer to find out if you’re at an increased risk for heat-related illness and need to take additional precautions.

Know the Symptoms

Heat-related illnesses can sneak up quickly. Keep an eye out for the warning signs and act fast in the event of heat stroke, heat exhaustion and heat cramps.

Heat stroke happens when the body can no longer control its temperature and is unable to cool down. Heat stroke is a medical emergency, and you should call 911 immediately.
Heat exhaustion is the body’s response to dehydration. If you are experiencing signs of heat exhaustion, ask a fellow worker or family member for assistance; you shouldn’t be left alone, and you may need medical treatment.
Heat cramps occur when your body sweats out too much salt and can also be a sign of heat exhaustion. Drink a sports drink or try water with a salty snack. Seek medical attention if you’re on a low-sodium diet, have heart issues or if your cramps don’t go away after an hour.

Hurricane Debby created $93M ag loss in Florida, report says

Thu, 19 Sep 2024 17:53:16 GMT

Hurricane Debby, a Category 1 storm that made landfall near Steinhatchee, Fla., caused between $93.7 and $263.2 million in damage, according to to a preliminary economic impact analysis from the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, based on producer surveys and observations from past events.

While 68% of the 2.2 million acres damaged from Hurricane Debby are used for grazing, the report shows the potential losses for greenhouse and nursery production to be between $15 million to $53.6 million.

Hurricane Idalia, a Category 3 storm, impacted nearly 3.5 million acres last year and caused agricultural production losses valued at $276 million.

“Hurricane Debby’s path through the state largely mirrored Hurricane Idalia’s; however. no two storms are alike,” Christa Court, University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences Economic Impact Analysis Program director, said in a news release. “While Idalia brought more intense winds, Debby was a wetter storm with more agricultural lands experiencing flooding.”

The report says the brunt of Hurricane Debbie hit Suwannee, Taylor, Lafayette and Dixie counties, but tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain extended as far south as Lee County. Parts of northern and southwest Florida, including Suwannee, Manatee and Sarasota counties, experienced more than 15 inches of rain Aug. 2-8.

Across commodity groups, 41.6% of the agricultural land impacted experienced low-intensity weather conditions, 56.3% experienced moderate-intensity weather conditions and 2.1% experienced high-intensity weather conditions, according to the report.

The hurricane damaged agricultural lands that collectively generate more than $3 billion worth of products each year, according to the report.

“In the early days and weeks after a hurricane event, many agricultural operations are unsure of the true extent of impacts of the event on their growing operations,” Court said. “Also, many crops within the vegetables, melons and potatoes commodity group were out of season or not yet planted, and many growers experiencing zero or minimal impacts on their operations do not report this information. We will continue to collect information specific to Hurricane Debby, which will improve the accuracy of these estimates in our final report.”

Farm Family Harvests Crop, Life's Challenges Together

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:58 GMT

Jay and Cara Myers of Colfax, North Dakota are no strangers of technology. Farming in the state can be challenging due to a smaller window to plant and harvest. That’s why these 2014 Top Producer of the Year Candidates want to make every acre count.

As the remaining bushels of the 2017 crop gets shut in the bin, this North Dakota farm family is turning toward more pressing issues.

AgDay national reporter Betsy Jibben has the story.

Hurricane Irma's Damage to Florida Citrus May Take Years to Overcome

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:54 GMT

Hurricane Irma roared across the gulf coast of Florida as citrus trees sat with full, nearly ripe fruit.

Millions of pounds blew to the ground and groves saw trees snapped and broken from the wind.

Growers say they felt as if they were just on the verge of overcoming citrus greening when the storm hit.

Watch the story above to find out why it will take years for them to recover but they remain thankful to be part of the industry. To watch the entire Harvest of Thanks show, click here .

Most Expensive U.S. Hurricane Season

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:54 GMT

This year’s U.S. Atlantic hurricane season is officially the most expensive ever, racking up $202.6 billion in damages since the formal start on June 1.

The costs tallied by disaster modelers Chuck Watson and Mark Johnson surpass anything they’ve seen in previous years. That shouldn’t come as a complete surprise: In late August, Hurricane Harvey slammed into the Gulf Coast, wreaking havoc upon the heart of America’s energy sector. Then Irma struck Florida, devastating the Caribbean islands on the way. Hurricane Maria followed shortly after, wiping out power to all of Puerto Rico. And the season’s not over yet: It officially ends on Nov. 30.
“Given our infrastructure today, the question is: Was 2017 unusual? I think we answered that pretty well,” said Watson, a modeler at Enki Research. “2017 wins no matter what you do. At one point I was working disasters in Asia, Central America, the U.S., and Ireland. It felt like I had jet lag even though I never left the office.”

As this devastating season draws to a close, here are a few statistics that show the extraordinary strength of this year’s storms:

The season delivered 17 named storms, 10 of which became hurricanes that altogether killed hundreds across the Atlantic basin. While 2005 still holds the record, with 28 storms, the intensity and dangerous paths of this year’s tropical systems caught even seasoned forecasters off guard.
For the first time in records, three Category 4 storms hit U.S. shores, with Hurricane Harvey becoming the first major hurricane to slam the country since 2005.
Harvey also set a new tropical rainfall record with just over 60 inches (152 centimeters) in Texas, according Michael Bell, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.
Hurricane Irma , which bowled over the Florida Keys in September before threatening Tampa, set a record by maintaining Category 5 strength for 37 hours. That broke the old mark of 24 hours set by Typhoon Haiyan, Bell said.
Accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of storm power and longevity, also set a record in September, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center .
Worldwide, storms caused $369.6 billion of damage, the second-most costly year since 1960.

This hurricane season is “in the top 10 in most of the metrics we use to measure hurricane activity,” Bell said.

And we haven’t even mentioned Ophelia, a “crazy storm” that maintained hurricane strength within 12 hours of nearing Ireland, said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It was the worst tropical system to threaten Ireland since 1961.

A construction boom along U.S. shores in recent years acted as a damage multiplier this year, when nature threw its worst at beach homes, waterfront resorts, power grids and Gulf Coast refineries.

Watson’s storm costs are based on physical damages, clean-up expenses and lost business activity that isn’t recovered within a year. To account for buildings, homes and factories that weren’t around 150 years ago, his models look at storms dating back to 1871 in the U.S. and 1960 globally, and project the damages they would inflict had they occurred today.

If every hurricane that hit the U.S. in 1893 were to strike now, the cost would be $185.6 billion.

The U.S. hasn’t been the only country feel the pain this year. Typhoons and hurricanes struck countries including China and Japan, Watson said. The totals are a testament to the damage storms that hit major cities can do.

“Megacities such as New York City, Houston, or Miami in the U.S., Tokyo in Japan, or the incredible dense infrastructure around Hong Kong in China, are susceptible to a single event causing in excess of $100 billion in damages,” Watson and Johnson, a professor of statistics at the University of Central Florida, wrote in a study.

Weather Impacts 2017 Global Wine Production

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:50 GMT

(Bloomberg) --

The world may produce the least wine this year in half a century, after small grape harvests in Italy, France and Spain, a global wine organization said. That could mean higher prices for bulk and entry-level wines.

The global 2017 vintage is estimated to slump 8.2 percent -- equivalent to about 3 billion fewer bottles -- to 246.7 million hectoliters, the Paris-based International Organisation of Vine and Wine said. That would be the lowest since 1961, according to Jean-Marie Aurand, the intergovernmental group’s director-general.

“Logic dictates that for entry-level wine, there will be a bit more tension on prices,” Aurand told reporters in Paris. “We’re past the time where we had structural overproduction of wine; the market is more balanced.”

The group, known by its French acronym OIV, puts the value of the global wine industry at about 75 billion euros ($88 billion). Countries with large grape harvests, such as Australia and South Africa, will probably be more active in the wine trade this season, Aurand said.

World wine consumption in 2017 is expected to be around 243.2 million hectoliters, according to the OIV. The forecast excludes wine used annually for distilling into spirits, making vinegar and industrial purposes. Production in recent years means there are sufficient stocks to avert shortages of wine and alcohol, Aurand said.

Italy alone accounts for half of the drop in global wine volume, with the country’s 2017 vintage predicted to slump 23 percent, according to the OIV. French output may fall 19 percent, and Spanish production is expected to drop 15 percent.

“The main reason is the freeze that affected the vineyards of western Europe,” Aurand said. “Add to that the rather dry summer, and you have the two main reasons for the decline.”

U.S. wine production may slip 1 percent, according to an OIV estimate based on U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The effect of the wildfires in California is expected to be “very limited,” with most of the grape harvest already in the cellars, Aurand said.

Volumes in Australia, the world’s fifth-biggest wine producer, are seen 6 percent higher, while Argentina’s production may rebound 25 percent, based on the OIV’s estimates.

Copyright 2017, Bloomberg

Napa County's Post-Wildfire Recovery

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:50 GMT

California’s Napa and Sonoma Valleys are continuing to clean up after recent wildfires swept through the area.

The recovery efforts will be underway for years to come, and Napa County grape grower Jim Regusci shares his story with the California Farm Bureau.

Watch the story on AgDay above.

Some South Texas pecan crops damaged by Hurricane Harvey

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:50 GMT

THOMASTON, Texas (AP) — When John and L’Nell Starkey returned after Hurricane Harvey, the substantial damage to their pecan orchard left a sting in their hearts.

“To see anything that is damaged that bad, and something that we put our lives in, too — we were very sad,” said John Starkey, 87. “We spend a great deal of time taking care of the trees, trying to make them healthy. It’s like growing our kids or grandkids ... It’s a serious injury, and it’s going to be very emotional, very sad for us to see these trees that deformed.”

The Victoria Advocate reports across the area, pecan orchards sustained heavy damage after Harvey, which made landfall Aug. 25 in South Texas, downed tree limbs, blew trees over and washed away leaves and pecans, said local Texas A&M AgriLife Extension agents.

The Starkeys have nurtured their orchard for about 30 years. Since Starkey retired from his medical career about five years ago, it’s been the couple’s main focus during their spare time.

After Harvey, the Starkeys found four down trees out of their estimated 275. About 60 percent of the trees sustained major limb damage, and all of them sustained some damage, Starkey said. The couple’s fences leaned under piled-up debris as well.

The Starkeys might be able to collect some pecans one at a time this harvest season but won’t be able to use their usual harvest machine because of all the mess. Starkey estimates they lost about 80 percent of their crop.

He said some of his trees that lost leaves or had broken limbs started new growth with the warm weather after Harvey. Some of the trees even bloomed like they would in the spring.

"(The crop) was thinking it was spring again: ‘We have to restore ourselves. We have to rebuild,’” he said. “They wanted to put on new growth, and we saw some blooms on this new growth like, ‘We’re going to make some more pecans,’ and here it’s September, October.”

The new buds of leaves will throw the trees off track if they use a lot of energy they would use next spring to start making next year’s crop, said Monte Nesbitt, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service specialist.

“The fact those buds have been activated matters because those (trees) normally stay in a resting state until next spring when they would bud out and make next year’s crop,” he said.

Larry Stein, Texas A&M University professor and Extension Service horticulturist, agreed with Nesbitt. He said it could take two to three years for substantially damaged trees to grow back and have a significant crop, but only time will tell.

“The challenge you have is you have to regrow those trees,” he said. “The crop next year is virtually none because of all of the limb structure that was lost. The challenge you have when trees put buds out on this time of the year (is) it expends energy they would use next year.”

Charles Nelson Jr., 63, owns Nelson Pecan Farm in Inez. Like the Starkeys, Nelson estimates he lost about 80 percent of his crop this year. After Harvey, Nelson had seven trees down out of about 470. About 30 percent of the remaining crop sustained major limb damage.

“For the pecan orchard itself, it’s going to affect it,” he said. “I would expect for next year to be a little slim and the next year to be smaller. You never know how these trees are going to react. Who knows, you know?”

The Nelsons are in the process of getting help from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency. They signed up for the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program, NAP, long before Harvey. Nelson said the process is long, and he’s not sure how much financial help he’ll get.

“It will all work out,” he said. “It takes a little time.”

Darrin Watkins, the Victoria Farm Service Agency’s executive director, said pecan orchard owners should apply for the disaster assistance program annually. The deadline to apply for 2018 is in March. To receive help, orchard owners must have filed for disaster assistance within 15 days of noticing the damage.

An adjuster will go out to an orchard and try to determine the amount of crop lost this season, Watkins said. If it’s not a total loss, the adjuster will ask the orchard owner to harvest what they can and compare that production to previous seasons to determine the amount lost. Once the adjuster determines that figure, the Farm Service Agency can process the disaster assistance application.

“We really haven’t had that many (orchard owners or managers) apply for assistance,” he said. “It’s either because of the timing of the storm or they just don’t know about our agency.”

Nelson said a pound of pecans is selling for $5 to $7 after Harvey. He said it might be because of the decrease in pecans harvested in the area this season. Usually, a pound sells for $3.50 to $4.

“It’s affected the prices,” he said. "(It) doesn’t help you when you don’t have any pecans to sell.”

Starkey said his orchard will never completely return to how it was before Harvey.

“We feel even though we’ve been damaged here and had a loss, things will come back, although they will never be normal again,” he said. “We’ll never completely recover because the trees are older and we’ve had so many big limbs off.”

Information from: The Victoria Advocate, http://www.victoriaadvocate.com

Florida Orange Crop Seen Plunging to 71-Year Low After Irma

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:46 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- Florida’s orange production will plunge 21 percent to a 71-year low after damage wrought by Hurricane Irma devastated the harvest, while output of cotton also suffered in storm-hit areas, government figures showed.

Orange growers in Florida, the largest U.S. producer, will harvest 54 million boxes in the 2017-18 marketing year, the least since 1947 -- an era when citrus irrigation was rare -- the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report Thursday. A survey of analysts conducted by Bloomberg indicated a crop of 58.2 million boxes. A box weighs 90 pounds, or 41 kilograms.

Irma, which dropped as much as 17 inches of rain on citrus- growing areas in a 24-hour period, made it impossible for farmers to reach their groves, with trees destroyed and fruit dropping to the ground unharvested, the USDA said.

Still, the USDA’s forecast was ahead of the 31 million boxes predicted by Florida Citrus Mutual, the state’s largest grower group, on Oct. 10. Orange juice for November delivery in New York fell as as much as 3.7 percent, before settling 2.3 percent lower at $1.589 a pound on ICE Futures U.S.

Florida growers group disputes USDA’s Florida orange crop estimate

Prices are also under pressure because Brazil, the top supplier, has ample stocks, is harvesting more, and will compensate for lower supplies from Florida, Burak Kazaz, professor of supply chain management at Syracuse University’s Whitman School of Management, said in a telephone interview.

Irma caused an estimated $2.5 billion in damage to agriculture, the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services said Oct. 4. Preliminary estimates show $760.8 million in damage to the citrus industry. Texas’s state farm agency has yet to release a damage estimate for Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast region in late August.

“The path of Hurricane Irma could not have been more lethal than what it was,” Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam said Wednesday. Groves are still under water in southwest Florida and state lawmakers are calling for immediate federal aid for producers.

©2017 Bloomberg L.P.

Record Warmth Could Turn Into a Disaster for U.S Fruit Growers

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:15 GMT

February’s record warmth across the U.S. means several weeks of worry for fruit growers in the Midwest and Northeast as trees flower early, leaving them vulnerable to a hard freeze that could sweep in and kill them all.

Spring-like temperatures have come early to the eastern U.S., restricting maple syrup sap harvests and waking up apple, cherry and peach trees from Michigan to New Jersey and New York.

But there’s still a lot of cold air in Canada and northern New England lingering not far from many orchards. Long-term averages show flower-destroying freezing temperatures can still strike from late April to mid-May in most areas. And without the flowers, the trees bear no fruit.

“Fruit growers are afraid the crops are developing too early and will get hit with a freeze,” said Mark Longstroth, extension fruit educator at Michigan State University in Paw Paw. “Everyone would be happy if we had some cooler temperatures to slow down development.”

As of Wednesday, 6,096 new daily high temperature records were set over the last 30 days across the U.S., according to the National Centers forEnvironmental Information in Asheville, North Carolina. In addition, there were 5,174 record warm low temperatures as well.

In stark contrast, over the same period, just 350 cold records were set.

Records Tumble

All-time highs for February were set in Boston, Milwaukee, Columbus, Ohio, and Binghamton, New York, where readings reached into the 70s Fahrenheit, said Tom Di Liberto, a meteorologist with the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

“The records that were broken were not just daily records, but monthly records,” Di Liberto said. “Burlington, Vermont broke the record twice in 48 hours, breaking it the second time by 9 degrees. A 70-degree day in Vermont is quite unusual.”

Burlington is 45 miles (72 kilometers) south of the Canadian border.

The warmth had a number of sources. One is that sea-surface temperatures in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are higher than normal. There were also more winds from the south to push the heat north. February temperatures in the U.S. have risen by 0.3 degrees per decade since 1895, Di Liberto said.

Not all of North America has seen an early start to spring-like conditions.

Apples, Cherries

“There is still feet of snow on the ground in northern New England and a lot of cold air up in Canada,” New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson said. “All you need is for that to break through for just a night or two. You are ruined for the season.”

A passing cold front could grab some of that freezing air and pump it south, said David Streit, co-founder of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

Buds on fruit trees have started to swell, the first stage in growth and about two weeks ahead of schedule in Michigan, said Longstroth. The buds are pretty tough, but if temperatures stay warm the trees will start to flower.

Once they begin to flower, any temperatures below 28 degrees (-2 Celsius) will damage this year’s apple and cherry harvest potential, he said.

In New York, the second-largest U.S. apple producer, things are already getting tricky. Through Tuesday, the average monthly temperature in Syracuse was 7 degrees above normal and the city reached a record 71 degrees Fahrenheit on Feb. 25, the National Weather Service said.

“If we were to get an extremely cold temperature, even for just 24 hours, that could kill the flower buds,” said Karl Niklas, professor of plant biology at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.

Long-Term Pattern

Last year, an early April warm-up was followed by zero-degree temperatures a few weeks later, destroying apple blossoms in some areas, Niklas said. A similar situation occurred in 2012 when an unusually warm March brought out flowers early, only to see them quashed by freezing temperatures in April, Di Liberto of the Prediction Center said.

“You cannot rule those things out,” Di Liberto said.

The one thing that might bring some solace is that with the longer-term pattern trending warm, there’s a chance it will continue, Commodity Weather’s Streit said. The forecast through March 15 calls for temperatures to be 5 to 8 degrees above normal across most of the eastern U.S. and Canada, according to his company.

“I think the vast majority of the models are warmer, most of the cold for us tends to fall out over the Pacific Northwest,” Streit said. “You are up against this overall pattern tending to be above normal.”

Hurricane Dorian: Florida Tomato Council reschedules conference

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 18:33:34 GMT

An abridged version of Florida’s 44th Tomato Conference, canceled due to Hurricane Dorian’s approach in the Atlantic, has been rescheduled for Oct. 2-3 in a new location.

Originally scheduled for Sept. 3-5 in Naples, the conference was canceled the afternoon of August 30, around the time the hurricane reached category 5 status — the most dangerous and severe category, with winds 157 miles per hour or higher. Dorian was charging toward the Bahamas, and the Miami-based National Hurricane Center’s “cone of uncertainty” encompassed most of the Florida peninsula at the time.

The hurricane, since reduced to category 3, has barely skimmed the East Coast of Florida as it heads north and threatens the coastal Carolinas.

The abridged conference will be at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences Gulf Coast Research & Education Center, Wimauma, according to an e-mail to registrants from conference organizer Diana Hester of the Florida Tomato Council.

“There will be no receptions, only educational sessions,” Hester said in the e-mail. “You’re welcome to attend at no cost.”

The revised conference schedule is:

Oct. 2

12:30-1 p.m.: Registration for food safety workshop/Tomato Good Agricultural Practices (T-GAP)

1-1:30 p.m.: Pre-test for food safety workshop/T-GAP

1:30-5 p.m.: Food safety workshop/T-GAP

Oct. 3

8:30-9 a.m.: Registration for Tomato Institute

9-11:30 a.m.: Tomato Institute, morning session

11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.: Researcher award luncheon

1-4 p.m.: Tomato Institute, afternoon session

Registrants will receive more details about registration and hotels. The original hotel, the Ritz-Carlton Beach Resort in Naples, offered free cancelations to conference registrants.

Related news:

Hurricane Dorian cancels Florida Tomato Conference

Water Risk Issues Approach Boiling Point

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:01:35 GMT

It’s no secret that the agriculture and food production industries require vast amounts of water to remain viable. That prompted Ceres, a nonprofit sustainability group, to research and release findings on water risk, dependence and security benchmarks for 37 major food companies. The report, “Feeding Ourselves Thirsty: How the Food Sector is Managing Global Water Risks,” was published May 7.

According to the report, 70% of the world’s freshwater is used to irrigate crops and raise animals. Currently, one-third of total food production is in areas of high or extremely high water stress, or competition. The report also identifies five important “water risk drivers” that affect the current state of water security in the food sector.

Growing competition for water
Weak regulation
Aging and inadequate water infrastructure
Water pollution
Climate change

The report also scores food sector companies based on four categories, including how they manage water risk, direct operations, manufacturing supply chain and agricultural supply chain. Companies were scored on a 0-100 point scale based on information that includes company financial statements, corporate sustainability reports and 2014 CDP water survey responses.

The group’s findings? “While a small number of companies are taking wide-ranging actions to manage water risks across their operations and supply chains, most have a long way to go,” according to the report.

Companies with the highest scores include Unilever (70), Coca-Cola (67), Nestle (64), PepsiCo (55) and Kellogg (54). However, 11 of the 37 companies scored 10 or below.

The report lays down five recommendations for companies to improve water sustainability efforts in their operations:

Increase board oversight and understanding of material water risks.
Conduct robust water risk analysis.
Address watershed-level risks.
Tackle water risks and impacts in agricultural supply chains.
Improve disclosure.

“We all enjoy the illusion of infinite [water] supply and pay virtually nothing,” says CEO chairman Muhtar Kent. “We must acknowledge the true costs of protecting, treating and delivering water, and develop models that reflect that cost. We must begin to value water as the essential and precious resource it is.”

Brooke Barton, senior director of the water program at Ceres, agrees – “Water may be cheap, but it is not limitless,” she says. “Water risks are already having negative effects on the food sector.”

There’s currently a disconnect between many food sector companies acknowledging these risks and acting upon them, Barton says. She predicts more companies will incentivize farmers for engaging in water sustainability management practices, as one example.

Jay Famiglietti, hydrologist with UC Irvine, says solutions need to be sought out sooner rather than later. He says the roadmap laid out in the Ceres report is a great place to start.

“Ag and food production as we know it in the U.S. is perhaps at a far greater risk than we even realize,” he says.

Famiglietti says the food industry needs to step up its role in environmental stewardship.

“It’s time for the industry to shoulder the responsibility of leading the way to water sustainability,” he says.

Climate Change Gave Some Farmers a Gift this Year

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:02:39 GMT

Climate change is usually talked of as a negative, and it often acts accordingly through more weather volatility and more extreme weather events. But occasionally, climate change gives farmers a helping hand.

Case in point – take a look at Kansas. In 2015, the growing season (as defined as the time between the last spring freeze and the first fall freeze) averaged 193 days across the state, which is almost 20 days longer than typical, according to Chip Redmond and Mary Knapp with Kansas State University’s Weather Data Library. Kansas farmers saw both a longer frost-free spring and fall, they report.

“The average final spring reading of 32 degrees F or less was April 18, a week later than the climatology average of April 11,” they note. “The 2015 fall freezes averaged two weeks later than the climatological average of October 28.”

Redmond and Knapp note results varied widely by individual location. Cheyenne County, in the northwest corner of the state, had a 131-day growing season – 26 days less than average. Meantime, Chautauqua County in the southeast part of the state saw a 231-day growing season – 28 days more than average. That’s a 100-day difference just across Kansas.

Gene Takle, director of Iowa State University’s Climate Science program, says this trend has not just benefited Kansas farmers. A longer growing season has been observed in many other areas, too.

“There have been pluses and minuses. It’s a mixed bag,” he says. “Climate has been favorable enough on balance to help yields the past 15 years. But if these trends continue, those gains are at risk.”

Kern County crops in good shape, mostly on time

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 18:36:29 GMT

In spite of some recent heavy rainfall, grower-shippers in California’s Kern County said they were anticipating an on-time start for this year’s deal.

Rain forced a slight delay on the start of lettuce and cabbage, but harvest of those items began April 13, said Danny Andrews, owner of Bakersfield, Calif.-based Dan Andrews Farms LLC .

Andrews started the deal with iceberg lettuce, green and red cabbage. He will have carrots, which he will channel through Grimmway Farms’ network, in June, and melons in July.

April brought plenty of rain, Andrews said.

“Currently, we’ve had record April rainfall for Bakersfield,” he said the week of April 12.

“We set two records this week — we’ve had 3 inches in three days, which broke two all-time records.”

It was frustrating, he said.

“It’s great to get rain, but it’s delaying harvest and we may get tractors stuck in the field harvesting,” he said. “Who knows? The crop may not hold as long as it normally holds because of the late season.”

Andrews said the overabundant moisture may bring difficulties for melon planting.

“Melons, we’re worried seeds might not germinate properly and there may be lighter yields in a light harvest and we might have to replant for July harvest,” he said.

Related content: Dan Andrews Farms adds melon varieties

Edison, Calif.-based Johnston Farms was finishing up its citrus in mid-April and was turning its attention to potatoes, with a May 10 expected start, and peppers, June 1, said Dennis Johnston, owner.

“Weather has been warmer than normal, but the last two or three weeks have been rainy and cool and slowed the potatoes and peppers down a bit, so the potatoes will be about a week later,” he said.

In spite of overabundant recent rains, the potato crop looked “very good,” while the peppers were just in the flowering stage as of April 12, Johnston said.

“It’s supposed to dry out and get some warmth, so normally we do have a good crop,” he said. “I’d say three weeks we had rain starting and lots of rain — more than we’re used to.”

Rainy weather hadn’t affected the carrot crop at Arvin, Calif.-based Kern Ridge Growers LLC , salesman Doug Stewart said.

“We’re moving carrots and citrus; everything is going really good,” he said.

“The carrot crop looks good. We’re trying to keep up with the fields in production. Rain hasn’t affected anything. We’re digging down south.”

Edison-based Kirschenman Enterprises Inc. was harvesting potatoes in the Coachella Valley, said Wayde Kirschenman, owner and president.

“Crop quality seems to be very, very good,” he said. “The crop we’re digging in the Coachella area seems to be the best we’ve had in years.”

Kirschenman will begin harvesting white, red and yellow spuds in Bakersfield around May 1, he said.

Related content: Later start, good quality from Kern County crops

“Lot of rain the last few days, but it’s clearing out and supposed to be nice,” he said.

Kirschenman saw the rainfall as a benefit.

“It’s nice to get some of the good rains,” he said. “The rain didn’t do any damage; it was good to have.”

Kirschenman also has table grapes, which should start in Kern County at the end of June.

“A lot have been pushed out because (of) too much supply,” he said.

“There will be less grapes this year. It has nothing to do with COVID, but all to do with declining markets. There will be less production.”

Some grape varieties were pulled out in favor of new varieties, and that will lead to less volume, he said.

“Overall, 10% of production in the industry got pulled out from a year ago because of saturation of markets,” he said.

Bakersfield-based TD Produce Sales anticipates a good potato crop, beginning with whites April 27 and reds and yellows May 4, said Tom Drulias, owner.

“The crop is coming along fine,” he said. “We’ve had some cool weather here and a lot of rain over the last three days, and maybe that has slowed things up a little bit.”

Everything was “pretty much” on time, he said.

“Quality looks good with all the varieties at this time on the samples I’ve seen from the field,” he said.

California’s Brown Negotiates $7.2 Billion Drought Bond Deal

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:00:21 GMT

Governor Jerry Brown and California Democratic lawmakers enlisted business support of a $7.2 billion plan composed mostly of new bonds for water storage and delivery to drought-stricken cities and farms.

Brown, a 76-year-old Democrat, was joined today by the heads of the California Farm Bureau, the state Chamber of Commerce and California Alliance for Jobs in urging legislators to put the bond measure on the November ballot.

At least two-thirds of the assembly and the senate must agree by the end of tomorrow if the $6.995 billion in new debt is to go before voters. The remaining $200 million would come from previous sales. The money would finance projects to store, recycle and deliver water to population centers in Southern California and to protect against floods.

“Water is the lifeblood of the California economy,” Allan Zaremberg, chief executive officer of the state Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement released by Brown’s office. “We need our elected leaders to come together to find the right balance between addressing our water crisis and reining in debt.”

More than 80 percent of California is in extreme drought, according to the federal U.S. Drought Monitor. Three years of below-normal precipitation have reduced 10 of the 12 major reservoirs to less than half their capacity, according to state Water Resources Department data. Communities from San Diego to the Oregon border are restricting lawn watering, car washing and whether restaurants serve water to patrons.

Compromise Plan

The $7.2 billion plan is a compromise between the governor and lawmakers. Brown had previously urged legislators to limit the spending to $6 billion, saying it was what the state could afford.

Whittled down from an $11.1 billion package awaiting a vote since 2010, the proposal includes measures to fund reservoirs and restore the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta ecosystem.

“Governor Brown and the legislature have worked hard to revise the water bond to provide sufficient funds for water storage and other priority issues,” U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, said yesterday in a statement. “I hope members of the legislature act quickly to place it on the ballot and I will do all I can to help get it passed this November.”

The biggest allotment in the package would devote $2.5 billion to storage, such as dams and reservoirs. Senate Republicans argued for $3 billion in storage projects, and Brown last week proposed $2 billion.

‘Critical’ Supply

“We will not settle for a water bond that doesn’t provide a critical and sustainable water supply,” Senator Andy Vidak, a Hanford Republican, said in an Aug. 8 statement from the Republican caucus in the upper chamber.

The agreement with Brown would replace a proposal developed in 2009 by lawmakers and then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Brown called the 2009 measure “pork-laden” and said it would add $750 million a year to the state’s $8 billion annual debt service.

California’s borrowing costs for general-obligation bonds have dropped this year as a recovering economy lifts revenue above Brown’s projections. Taxes and fees collected in July came in 4.5 percent above expectations, Controller John Chiang said yesterday.

The extra yield that buyers demand to own 10-year California debt rather than top-rated securities narrowed to 0.22 percentage point this month, the smallest since at least the start of 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.