Wind

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 12:23:44 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Drought Conditions Worsen in High Plains, West

Fri, 21 May 2021 19:01:35 GMT

Lots of red. That’s the prevailing color on the U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, for parts of the High Plains, particularly North Dakota, and in states throughout the Southwest and West.

In the High Plains, two diverse weather patterns are in play, according to Monitor authors, Adam Hartman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Denise Gutzmer, National Drought Mitigation Center.

The U.S. Drought monitor released Thursday shows while there were slight improvements, dryness covers more than 40% of the U.S., which is historic.

“The drought monitor has been around for more than two decades, and we have only seen four springs where we’ve seen more than 40% drought coverage in the lower 48 states,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist and an author of the monitor. “For the record, those years were 2000, 2003, and then in the wake of the big 2012, drought with the spring of 2013.”

2021 is among those years, with nearly 60% of the U.S. seeing drought, with Rippey calling the Southwest and West “ground zero” for drought this year.

Precipitation this past week did help soil moisture conditions in Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska, reducing drought in some areas, according to the weekly Monitor. However, farmers saw rain extremes in some cases, with precipitation of 3” or more.

(Farm Journal)

The Dakotas have increasingly dire conditions, however. Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation this past week warranted a further downgrade in soil conditions in the Dakotas. Drought expanded in South Dakota, as the state continues to fall behind during what usually is a climatologically wetter time of year. There are also continued reports of poor water quality in livestock water sources in northwestern parts of the state.

In North Dakota, dry, windy conditions continued what’s been an ongoing pattern throughout spring and that is predicted to continue.

“Many farmers have been forced to plant in dry soils this year, but erosion and lack of rainfall have resulted in poor and/or a lack of germination,” writes the authors. “Fire also continues to remain a high risk across North Dakota, and most counties have imposed burn restrictions. Since the beginning of the year, there have been more than 1,000 fires reported across the state, with over 100,000 acres burned.”

Sixty percent of the U.S. cow herd is now in some level of drought or dryness, because pastures aren’t greening up for grazing. That’s forcing cows to the processor in numbers not seen in a decade, according to Greg Henderson, editor of Drovers.

“The (number for) March of this year was up 10% over last year already, and April was up 4% to 5% over last year,” says Henderson. 2020 beef cow slaughter was up 7%, which was the highest beef cow slaughter since 2010.

Water levels across the West are below normal for this time of year. Above-normal temperatures over much of the West over the past 60 days has resulted in rapid snowmelt and, due to dry topsoil, much of the melt water has not made it into the rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.

(Farm Journal)

In California, the water level in Lake Tahoe is 2.5 feet lower than this time last year. There are increasing reports of reduced pasture forage, livestock requiring supplemental feed and/or being sold off, and some reports of livestock mortality. Additionally, stock ponds are running dry, and farmers have been forced to haul water in some locations.

Targeted degradations were also made in portions of Idaho as a result of deteriorating soil moisture conditions.

In the week ahead, look for the Southern and Central Plains, much of the Corn Belt, and northern tier states to remain wet. Temperatures are also forecast to remain below-normal for much of the period across the Northern tier.

“High pressure is expected to dominate over the eastern U.S., coinciding with little to no rainfall and above-normal temperatures,” the authors report.

The Southwest and Coastal California are also likely to remain dry. However, temperatures are favored to remain below-normal, moderating to near-normal as the week progresses toward Tuesday, May 25.

Below-normal precipitation is expected in the Southeast U.S. and along the East Coast, with enhanced probabilities in the deep South and Florida, the authors report. Below-normal precipitation is also expected for the Central Pacific Coast, Great Basin, and Eastern Rockies to the High Plains.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report is available here: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

If You Think the Wind is Worse Than Normal This Year, Data Proves You're Right

Tue, 26 Apr 2022 19:04:40 GMT

Farmers and ranchers have had to endure high winds for months. The powerful gusts haven’t just been annoying; it’s caused disasters across the U.S. High winds have been the culprit of wildfires and more.

High winds and eerily dry conditions across Kansas and the Southern Plains have created what’s been a battleground for continuous wildfires this year. The drought-plagued area was already showing severe signs of what little to no rain-fed water will do, but fires are also robbing ranchers of vital grass.

Cooper and Chelsea Adams are the fifth generation of the Adams family to run cattle in the southwest corner of Kansas. What is typically a lush landscape for cattle ready to graze is now a backdrop covered in dirt and ashes.

“That fire was roaring so fast, 60- to 70-mile an hour gusts that day they said, it had already covered one entire pasture by the time I get down there,” says Cooper Adams.

The April fires are only a sample of wildfires that have continued to pop up across the Plains. High winds and dry conditions also resulted in multiple wildfires in western Kansas in December.

Bar S Ranch homes and personal belongings, along with around 200 head of cattle, other structures on the ranch and 40-miles worth of fence during the December fires. The family believes downed power lines from strong winds sparked a fire that changed their lives .

Stories like these can be found from Texas to North Dakota.

“Yes, it has been windier than normal this month across the nation’s mid-section,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “Wind data is a little harder to come by, compared to temperatures and precipitation. However, I have some numbers for Dallas-Ft. Worth (DFW), Texas. Through April 24, the average wind speed at DFW was 15.9 mph. Average for DFW in April is 12.2 mph. That works out to about 30% above the April average. April record for DFW was 17.2 mph in 1951. “

Those on the Plains are used to wind, but this year has been especially bad. 70 MPH winds may have wiped out the remaining winter wheat in the Texas Panhandle this month.

“The wheat crop that was out there was just living off of the little bit of moisture that was in the ground, and we haven’t had any moisture to help with that at all,” says Jesse Wieners farms in Groom, Texas. “Now we’re at that stage where the little bit of wheat that was there has blown out and is pretty much non- existent. We’ve been seeing zero-bushel yield across the farm on a lot of stuff. It just is not looking good right now.”

The aftermath of Tuesday’s winds were evident, with dirt drifts piled up in ditches. Farmers have battled multiple wind events already this year, along with intensifying drought. The situation has hammered the crop planted last fall, with the majority of the dryland winter wheat crop across the Panhandle and southern Plains already zeroed out by crop adjusters.

“Some of the blame for the high winds can be attributed to La Niña,” says Rippey. “With a La Niña-driven storm track over the last several weeks, several very strong storms have emerged from the western U.S. and crossed the northern or central Plains.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says this satellite image of the weekend storm, dated April. He says those storms have generated considerable wind in the Southwest and throughout the Great Plains.

“In drought-affected areas, this has led to blowing dust, fast-spreading wildfires, and further deterioration of wheat and pasture conditions,” he adds.

Most Expensive U.S. Hurricane Season

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:54 GMT

This year’s U.S. Atlantic hurricane season is officially the most expensive ever, racking up $202.6 billion in damages since the formal start on June 1.

The costs tallied by disaster modelers Chuck Watson and Mark Johnson surpass anything they’ve seen in previous years. That shouldn’t come as a complete surprise: In late August, Hurricane Harvey slammed into the Gulf Coast, wreaking havoc upon the heart of America’s energy sector. Then Irma struck Florida, devastating the Caribbean islands on the way. Hurricane Maria followed shortly after, wiping out power to all of Puerto Rico. And the season’s not over yet: It officially ends on Nov. 30.
“Given our infrastructure today, the question is: Was 2017 unusual? I think we answered that pretty well,” said Watson, a modeler at Enki Research. “2017 wins no matter what you do. At one point I was working disasters in Asia, Central America, the U.S., and Ireland. It felt like I had jet lag even though I never left the office.”

As this devastating season draws to a close, here are a few statistics that show the extraordinary strength of this year’s storms:

The season delivered 17 named storms, 10 of which became hurricanes that altogether killed hundreds across the Atlantic basin. While 2005 still holds the record, with 28 storms, the intensity and dangerous paths of this year’s tropical systems caught even seasoned forecasters off guard.
For the first time in records, three Category 4 storms hit U.S. shores, with Hurricane Harvey becoming the first major hurricane to slam the country since 2005.
Harvey also set a new tropical rainfall record with just over 60 inches (152 centimeters) in Texas, according Michael Bell, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.
Hurricane Irma , which bowled over the Florida Keys in September before threatening Tampa, set a record by maintaining Category 5 strength for 37 hours. That broke the old mark of 24 hours set by Typhoon Haiyan, Bell said.
Accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of storm power and longevity, also set a record in September, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center .
Worldwide, storms caused $369.6 billion of damage, the second-most costly year since 1960.

This hurricane season is “in the top 10 in most of the metrics we use to measure hurricane activity,” Bell said.

And we haven’t even mentioned Ophelia, a “crazy storm” that maintained hurricane strength within 12 hours of nearing Ireland, said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It was the worst tropical system to threaten Ireland since 1961.

A construction boom along U.S. shores in recent years acted as a damage multiplier this year, when nature threw its worst at beach homes, waterfront resorts, power grids and Gulf Coast refineries.

Watson’s storm costs are based on physical damages, clean-up expenses and lost business activity that isn’t recovered within a year. To account for buildings, homes and factories that weren’t around 150 years ago, his models look at storms dating back to 1871 in the U.S. and 1960 globally, and project the damages they would inflict had they occurred today.

If every hurricane that hit the U.S. in 1893 were to strike now, the cost would be $185.6 billion.

The U.S. hasn’t been the only country feel the pain this year. Typhoons and hurricanes struck countries including China and Japan, Watson said. The totals are a testament to the damage storms that hit major cities can do.

“Megacities such as New York City, Houston, or Miami in the U.S., Tokyo in Japan, or the incredible dense infrastructure around Hong Kong in China, are susceptible to a single event causing in excess of $100 billion in damages,” Watson and Johnson, a professor of statistics at the University of Central Florida, wrote in a study.

Struggling Florida Citrus Growers Face Tough Decisions

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:04:33 GMT

WINTER HAVEN, Fla. (AP) — Although the 2017-18 citrus harvest has barely begun, growers are already planning for the 2018-19 season, and they have critical decisions to make in the coming months that will affect next season’s crop and perhaps others in years to come.

Growers say all but the luckiest among them will profit in 2017-18. Because hurricane-force winds hit the state’s entire citrus-producing area south of Interstate 4, there aren’t many growers who escaped major damage.

Irma destroyed more than 50 percent of this season’s oranges, grapefruit, tangerines and tangelos. Before Irma, Florida’s citrus industry battled greening, a devastating disease.

The latest official U.S. Department of Agriculture survey released Nov. 9 shows 50 million boxes of oranges, a 27 percent drop from the 2016-17 season, and 4.65 million boxes of grapefruit, a 40 percent decline from last season. Growers expect those numbers to decrease through the end of the harvest in May as storm-damaged trees drop fruit before harvest.

“If I had to take a guess, I would say we’ll end this season with 40 million boxes of oranges,” said Allen Morris, an agriculture economist and consultant with decades of experience in Florida citrus.

That would mean a drop in U.S. supply of orange juice, most of which in past seasons has come from Florida oranges, Morris said. Each year, about 95 percent of the state’s orange crop goes to juice.

“We will survive, but imports will play a critical role in our survival,” he said.

The Ledger reports that when Florida will recover as the major supplier of orange juice to the U.S. market depends on when the state’s citrus trees will return to pre-Irma production.

There’s little question that damage caused by Irma to most of Florida’s 62 million citrus trees will affect future crop production at least through the 2018-19 season. That was growers’ experience following the 2004 and 2005 hurricanes.

But more than a decade ago, operating a grove was a much cheaper proposition than it is now because growers didn’t have to deal with the fatal bacterial disease citrus greening. Since its arrival in 2005, greening has reduced the state’s annual citrus harvest by more than 70 percent while more than doubling grove-caretaking costs.

Costs have risen because of the additional fertilizer and pesticide applications growers must make to fight greening, said Ariel Singerman, assistant professor of agricultural economics at the University of Florida’s Citrus Research and Education Center in Lake Alfred.

That means it costs a lot more to wait for trees to recover from hurricane damage.

In the 2016-17 season, the average Florida grower spent about $1,800 per grove acre, including fertilizers, pesticides, labor and other inputs, That’s based on an annual statewide survey he conducts every summer after the conclusion of the harvest.

That figure does not include other fixed costs, such as capital expenses; land costs, such as a mortgage; and other management inputs.

Maintaining an adequate level of grove caretaking will be a key challenge for growers this year, Singerman said.

“That is exactly why the Florida citrus industry is shrinking - they (growers) cannot afford the cost of staying in business,” he said. “If a grower has lost 50 percent of his fruit, it’s unlikely he will make a profit.”

The Associated Press, 2017

Information from: The Ledger (Lakeland, Fla.), http://www.theledger.com