U.S. apple production is forecast up 3%, pear output down slightly

Apples are up and pears are down in the August crop production forecast report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The first USDA  estimate of the season puts the U.S. apple crop at 10.5 billion pounds, up 3% from last year.

Despite record high temperatures in the Northwest, production in Washington is expected to be up 7% from last year, the USDA said. In Oregon, production is expected to be up 9% from the previous year.

In Michigan, the USDA said crop development was early throughout the spring, leaving buds vulnerable to frost damage in April. In addition, the crop report said pollination in Michigan was hampered by cold weather in early May.

At 760 million pounds, production in Michigan is expected to be down 18% from last year, the USDA said. New York’s apple production was forecast at 1.35 billion pounds, off 2% from 2020.

Double take

The USDA forecast was more optimistic about the Washington crop than the Washington State Tree Fruit Association, which on Aug. 6 forecast the Washington fresh crop at just under 125 million standard 40-pound boxes of fresh apples, a gain of 2.3% compared with 2020’s 122-million-box crop.

Desmond O’Rourke, economist and CEO of Belrose Inc., Pullman Wash., said the USDA’s crop projection forecast won’t change market conditions drastically for growers, who have been enjoying strong prices for the past few months. The possibility of more heat damage to fruit in the Northwest could further shrink the crop, O’Rourke said.

Other crop estimates:

> Pears: The USDA forecast U.S. pear production for 2021 at 670,000 tons, down slightly from last year. In California, the pear crop has been heavily affected by drought, the USDA said. In Oregon, growers have reported some signs of stink bug damage and some trees have been affected by a February freeze.

> Peaches: The USDA forecast production at 696,500 tons, up 13% from 2020. In California, the largest growing state, production is forecast at 510,000 tons, up 6% from the previous forecast and up 9% from 2020. South Carolina production is forecast at 84,000 tons, up 10% from the previous season. In Georgia, peach production is forecast at 36,000 tons, up 8% from the previous season.

> Cranberries: U.S. 2021 total cranberry production is forecast at 7.90 million barrels, up 1% from 2020. Wisconsin production is forecast at 4.70 million barrels, up 1% from last year. Production in Massachusetts, forecast at 2.10 million barrels, is up 2% from last year.

> Grapes: U.S. grape production for 2021 is forecast at 6.47 million tons, up 9% from last year. California’s table grape production is forecast at 1.20 million tons, up 8% from last year, according to the forecast.

U.S. Apple Production

(million pounds)

                         2020     2021

California           271       185

Michigan            927       760

New York        1,385    1,350

Oregon              175       190

Pennsylvania     417       460

Virginia              163       180

Washington    6,915    7,400

U.S.              10,253   10,525

Source: USDA