Food price inflation to slow in 2024, USDA predicts

Food prices are expected to continue to slow in 2024, according to a new Food Price Outlook report from the USDA.

In 2024, all food prices are predicted to increase by 1.3%, according to the report, with a prediction interval of -1.4% to 4.2%.

Grocery food prices in 2024 are predicted to decrease by 0.4%, with a prediction interval of -4.5% to 4%. Restaurant food prices are predicted to increase by 4.7%, with a prediction interval of 3.1% to 6.2%, the report said.

In December, inflation measures showed grocery food prices were 1.3% higher than in December 2022. Meanwhile, the USDA said restaurant food prices in December were 5.2% higher than year-ago levels.

For all of 2023, the USDA said food prices rose 5.8%, with grocery prices up 5% and restaurant food prices up 7.1%.

“While prices increased in 2023 for all food categories tracked by the USDA’s Economic Research Service except for pork, prices grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 for all categories,” the UDSA said.

The report said fats and oils had the largest average price increase (9%) between 2022 and 2023, followed by sugar and sweets (8.7%), cereals and bakery products (8.4%), and processed fruits and vegetables (8%). Pork prices declined 1.2% in 2023, and several categories grew more slowly than their historical average rate, including fish and seafood (increased by 0.3% in 2023), fresh fruits (0.7%), fresh vegetables (0.9%), eggs (1.4%), and beef and veal (3.6%).

Farm-level prices for fruits are forecast to increase by 1.3% in 2024, while farm-level prices for vegetables are predicted to decline 1.5% for the year.