Survey: Political leanings color food inflation expectations

Especially for viewers of Fox News, the era of rising food prices is not over, according to a new consumer survey from Purdue University.

Sixty-four percent of  1,200 U.S. consumers surveyed by the Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability said they expected food prices to rise in the next year. The average predicted increase is 3.7%, according to the February 2024 Consumer Food Insights Report.

In 26 months of the survey, the U.S. observed high food inflation that peaked at 11.3% in 2022.

“Even though food inflation has cooled significantly since then, dropping to 2.6% this month, inflation remains positive,” lead author Joseph Balagtas, professor of agricultural economics at Purdue and director of CFDAS, said in a news release. “Consumers, on average, are predicting food price inflation to rise a bit in the coming year.”

The survey evaluated consumer expectations for food prices and how they correlate with other consumer perceptions, behaviors and characteristics, the release said.

Among self-identified Republicans, 71% of respondents predict prices to rise, while only 56% of self-identified Democrats predict the same, the release said.

Among those who trust Fox News as a source of information, 67% expect an increase in food prices, while among those who trust CNN as a news source, only 53% predict higher food prices.

“It seems our political leanings color our perceptions of the food economy,” Balagtas said.

Consumers predicting prices to rise tend to value affordability slightly higher and environmental and social responsibility slightly lower than do those who predict prices to fall, the release said.

“One interesting result is the importance of affordability to those who predict food prices will go up,” Balagtas said. “It makes sense that people who expect prices to rise would also key in on the importance of food affordability.”

In the food expenditures category, consumer food spending rose to a weekly average of $195 in February, up 7% from February 2022, Elijah Bryant, a survey research analyst at CFDAS and co-author of the report, said in the release.

The most recent Consumer Price Index measure of year-over-year inflation for groceries (food at home) was 1.2% in January 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For food from restaurants (food away from home), the figure was 5.1%. Food-away-from-home (FAFH) inflation has remained higher than food-at-home (FAH) since March 2023.

Since March 2022, the survey has asked consumers how frequently they eat meals from restaurants, fast-food places or carryout in the last seven days.

“There has been a slight downward trend in the average number of FAFH meals eaten since May and June 2023, when FAFH and FAH inflation began to really diverge,” Bryant said. “As the cost of eating out continues to grow at a faster rate than groceries, we are seeing consumers eating out less and cooking at home more.”