Black watermelon, a short cherry crop, Picasso melons and a poll about these times
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. It was a lot like any other time.
Those were three options I gave in a recent poll posted to the LinkedIn Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group. Here is the precise question:
Considering all that is happening now, what's your outlook for the industry and the world?
- Never been better: 25%
- Always been about like this: 38%
- These times are the worst ever: 38%
Sure, there were a paltry number of votes. However, the question speaks to the fact it is nearly impossible to objectively look at the times we are in. If the U.S. president is not from “our party,” there is no doubt said leader is the “worst ever.” If the leader is someone we voted for, we think "never better."
Likewise, one quick review of the Drudge Report may convince me that today is the threshold to the end of the world. But are times really that bad? In fact, perhaps we are vastly underestimating how great today is. That’s the way I am leaning, anyway.
True perspective lies somewhere in the future.
As Soren Kierkegaard said, “Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forward”
Another recent question to the group:
What is one thing/lesson you learned from your dad?
Here are a few responses:
- Keep trying.
- If money can fix it, it’s not a real problem.
- Keep your word, and if you do something, do it 100%.
- No season is the same and not every person will realize the change.
- Save your energy for things you can change
Finally, this question:
In response to fresh produce inflation, what strategy will consumers employ to blunt the impact of rising prices?
- Buy cheaper fresh fruit/veg: 24%
- Shop at discount retailers: 31%
- Buy less fresh produce: 29%
- Other (explain): 16%
Some remarks from the industry about consumer behavior in inflationary times:
- Top quintile will spend with no change — they’re solid. Explains why berries are up in dollars, units and volume). Bottom quintile, no change — didn’t have then, don’t have it now. Sixty percent will cut food budget to pay for energy and motor fuel. The sustainability tax will be squeezed out of the food budget.
- Consumers will use all strategies listed, plus others to save money in these inflationary times, including buying frozen, buying canned, buying more specials and even saving money in other departments like meat and deli to ensure their produce purchases remain whole.
- Frozen individual quick frozen and whole products. Labor, fuel and packaging will continue to drive inflation higher, so while I hate to ever use the word "frozen," I believe it’s come a long way, as many restaurants have been using it and people would never know. I believe you will see more and more going to it, as well as consumers. I believe frozen will be a huge part of the future, at least [until] 2024.
Hot search items this morning on The Packer’s website include black watermelon, yumi watermelon, shredded carrot shortage, Picasso melons and the 2022 cherry season and "cherry shortage."
As far as the cherry season, supplies are decidedly short so far this year.
The USDA reported that, for the week of June 19-25, total U.S. cherry shipments were 28.3 million pounds, down more than half from 70 million pounds the same week a year ago. Season-to-date shipments of cherries in the U.S. were 166.6 million pounds as of June 25, down drastically from 337.2 million pounds the same week last year.
Sticker shock is real for fresh cherries. For the week of June 25, the USDA said the average U.S. terminal market price topped $118 per carton, compared with $51 per carton the same time a year ago.
The USDA reported that just over 10,000 retail grocery stores promoted cherries at an average retail price of $2.86 per pound on June 24. Last year, nearly 29,000 U.S. grocery stores promoted cherries at an average price of $2.48 per pound.
Washington cherry supplies are on the increase, but too late for much of Fourth of July demand.
