LinkedIn poll reveals produce people have glass-half-full mindset

Farmers and most produce folks are "glass-half-full" people.

If there is a ray of optimism to be found, a beam of sunshine to pump, or rose-colored glasses to wear, we are here for it.

I recently asked the LinkedIn Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group, "On a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (optimistic), what is your feeling about the produce business outlook for the rest of the year?"

The voting has just begun in the one-week poll, but here are the results with 33 votes cast:

1-3: 15%
4-6: 18%
6-8: 42%
9-10: 24%

Those results so far seem to skew middling to optimistic, but it is easy to feel the collective oppressive worry about the war in Ukraine, high energy prices, supply chain troubles and inflation. 

One commenter noted that there are consolidation and credit issues as a result of the COVID pandemic, especially in foodservice.

Reflecting the malaise,  Purdue University's March Ag Economy Barometer dipped to a reading of 113 in March, the weakest farmer sentiment reading since May 2020.

Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey, according to Purdue’s website.

 A new report on April's barometer will be released in early May.

The March reading was 12 points lower than a month earlier and 36% lower than in March 2021. The report said:

• 57% of producers said they expect farm input prices to rise by 20% or more
• 36% said they think input prices will rise by 30% or more
• 27% of producers say they’ve had difficulty purchasing crop inputs for the 2022 crop season

"The decline in the barometer was driven both by weaker perceptions of current conditions and expectations for the future," the report said.  "The war in Ukraine exacerbated producers’ worries about production costs with nearly two-thirds of producers expecting the biggest impact on U.S. agriculture from the war to be on input prices."

The duration of the war in Ukraine now appears to be the major pivot point for the fortunes of U.S. growers and much of the produce supply chain in 2022.

Unless the war ends, worries about high input costs and consumer inflation will suck the optimism away from the most pollyannish of the glass- half- full crowd.