Naturipe tracking avocado supply dynamics for customers

With all eyes on football, Naturipe is ready to support promotions that Avocados From Mexico is launching, says Andy Bruno, president of Naturipe Farms' avocado division.

“With the big avocado holiday — the Super Bowl — on the horizon, we look forward to supporting promotions,” Bruno said. “Naturipe Avocado Farms knows the importance of keeping our partners apprised of the many dynamics that will impact upcoming promotional periods. This includes staying close to and tracking supply and demand, and the size curve and the promotable opportunities by size throughout the year. The growth of the Colombian avocado program also provides great promotional windows.”

Bruno said Naturipe Farms has a large Mexican avocado operation, with more than 1,200 growers supplying fruit.

“We have people at all levels of the operation, from a harvesting team to a logistics team dedicated to following fruit throughout the supply chain from packinghouse to end destination,” he said. “We also work closely with procurement to ensure we are apprised of the pertinent information and forecasting the season, including, but not limited to, harvest volumes, size curve, and anything that may cause implications in the U.S. market.”

In addition to conventional fruit, Naturipe expects a good supply of Mexican organic avocados through the spring 2024, Bruno said, just in time for California organic avocado volume to ramp up. 

Crop expectations

Bruno said the Association of Avocado Exporting Producers and Packers of Mexico's recent crop estimate for the 2023-24 normal season indicates that the industry will continue with a promotable supply of avocados from Mexico for the 35 weeks that remain of the current crop, which is expected to wrap up June 2024, just before the industry heads into the Mexican summer crop. 

The industry has struggled with a size curve dominated by small fruit, he said, with a lean supply of large fruit. In fact, the USDA has not reported prices of size 32s and 36s for months because of limited supply, he said.

“Recent harvests have shown that there is an improvement in the size curve and we’re seeing more availability on the industry’s sought-after 48-count size, which should continue to be promotable,” he said. “Promotional opportunities on small fruit are available now and will continue through the year. Each week that we progress further into the season and the dry matter increases, we find that the eating quality and ripening results improve more and more.”   

Consumption climbing

Bruno said long-term avocado demand should continue to climb.

With per-capita avocado consumption more than doubling in the past 10 years and a continued interest in healthy eating, Bruno said Naturipe doesn’t foresee anything stopping the growth of the versatile superfood.

“There are always new and creative usages discovered for avocados,” he said. “We have all become enamored by avocados and the health benefits, the amazing flavor that you don’t feel guilty for indulging in, and the fun of avocados on novelty items all keep avocados top of mind for consumers. Avocados are a sought-after addition to the menu and are becoming a staple in more and more households.”

He said that the Hass Avocado Board has shared interesting insights on the impact that bagged avocados have made on retail sales trends and shopper purchases.

“Bagged avocado sales have been on the rise the past decade, but there was a substantial spike in volume and dollar sales in 2020 and 2021, capturing a larger share of category sales over the period,” Bruno said. “The pandemic may have spurred this demand with the desire for purchasing items that were ‘packaged,’ however, we also see that bagged avocados are an excellent promotional item for small fruit.”

Bruno said there are many opportunities to promote small avocados throughout the year, and at the beginning of each new season and crop.

“Naturipe Avocado Farms boasts significant capacity for bagging and private label to meet this growing demand,” he said. “Post-pandemic, with restaurants reopening, we expect to see the foodservice sector continue to improve. There is a growing demand for meal delivery kits and opportunities to see a boost in avocado sales within this fast-growing category."