U.S. specialty crop exports to China have slid in the past six years, hurt by retaliatory tariffs, improved Chinese output and free trade agreements with other trading partners, according to a new USDA report.
Numerous U.S. specialty crops are still subject to retaliatory Section 232 tariffs on top of most-favored-nation (MFN) tariffs, the report said. “U.S. tree nuts and fresh fruit are still highly valued in China, but targeted marketing campaigns are necessary to preserve U.S. market share,” the report said.
During 2018 and 2019, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, citing unfair trade practices. China hit back with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, and multiple rounds of tariffs affect billions of dollars’ worth of goods. Many of the tariffs remain in place.
China is still the top market for U.S. farmers, with U.S. ag export sales at $29.1 billion to China in 2023.
The top U.S. agricultural product exports to China in 2023 were soybeans ($15.2 billion), corn ($1.7 billion), beef ($1.6 billion), cotton ($1.6 billion), pork and pork products ($1.2 billion), and coarse grains ($1.2 billion).
Top U.S. specialty crop exports to China in 2023 were tree nuts ($1.2 billion), fresh fruit ($86 million), processed fruit ($70 million), fresh vegetables ($1 million), processed vegetables ($35 million), and nursery products and cut flowers ($2 million).
Fresh fruit decline
The value of U.S. fresh fruit exports to China in 2017 totaled $226 million, but that value dropped to just $86 million in 2023.
In 2023, cherries ($43.7 million), oranges ($24.1 million), and apples ($8.8 million) comprised most of U.S. fruit exports to China, the report said.
U.S. grape exports to China have plummeted in six years, from $22.2 million in 2017 to just $321,000 in 2023.
“The downward trend for U.S. table grape exports started in the late 2000s as China’s domestic industry started to produce grapes of higher quality,” the report said.
Between 2017 and 2023, U.S. cherry exports dropped 63%, from $118.6 million in 2017 to $43.7 million in 2023.
While the United States remains the largest cherry supplier from the northern hemisphere, U.S. cherries face increasing competition from domestically produced cherries, the report said.
Between 2017 and 2023, U.S. orange exports to China dropped 43% to $27.4 million. “U.S. oranges face fierce competition from domestic oranges whose varieties and quality have improved significantly in recent years,” the report said. China imports oranges and other citrus fruit mostly from counter-seasonal producers, such as South Africa, Egypt, and Australia.
The U.S. gained market access for blueberries, avocados and nectarines through the Economic and Trade Agreement, but the report said those fruits have failed to take off mainly due to a lack of price competitiveness with domestic and counter cyclical production from South American countries with free trade agreements.
“Since 2017, China has significantly improved domestic fruit quality and cold chain logistics,” the report said. “Improved domestic production, retaliatory tariffs, and free trade deals with major counter cyclical producers in the Southern Hemisphere explain the significant drop in U.S. fresh fruit exports to China from 2017 to 2023.”
U.S. tree nut exports to China have grown despite the People’s Republic of China (PRC) imposed retaliatory tariffs and duty-free access for major competitors, the report said.
In 2017, the U.S. exported $243 million in tree nuts to China, rising 400% to $1.2 billion in 2023.
“The overall size of China’s tree nut import market grew exponentially from 2017 to 2023, and U.S. exports grew substantially during that time, but U.S. market share declined,” the report said. “Demand for consumer-oriented products, like U.S. branded mixed nuts, has experienced significant growth in recent years.”
The USDA said U.S. exports of fresh and processed vegetables to China have trending lower since the mid-2010s.
For example, the report said frozen French fry exports to China dropped from $78 million in 2017 to $18 million in 2023. Part of the reason for the decline is greater production of potatoes in China for frozen potato processing, the report said.
