Farmer sentiment jumped following the November election of President-elect Donald Trump, according to a new Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
However, the survey found concern about new potential trade wars under Trump’s administration.
The farm economy index, based on a survey conducted Nov. 11-15, climbed 30 points to 145, according to the November report. Both the Current Conditions and Future Expectations indices increased in November, with the biggest improvement taking place in future expectations. The Future Expectations Index increased 37 points to 161, while the Current Conditions Index rose to 113, 18 points above October’s reading.
November’s sentiment improvement pushed the barometer to its highest level since May 2021, with expectations for the future also reaching their highest level since April 2021, according to the report.
“Some of the reasons behind the improvement in farmer sentiment include expectations for a future regulatory and tax environment for the agricultural sector that is more favorable than expected prior to the November elections,” the report said.
One-third of November’s respondents said they expect their operation to be better off financially a year from now, compared to 19% who felt that way in October.
Thirty-four percent of farmers in November said they expect good times financially for the U.S. agricultural sector in the next 12 months compared to just 15% of respondents in October, the report said.
When asked to look ahead five years, over half (52%) of November’s respondents said they expect U.S. agriculture to experience widespread good times compared to 34% who felt that way in October. The increase in optimism spread to farmer’s investment outlook, with 22% of November respondents reporting it is a good time to make large investments compared to 15% of farmers surveyed who felt that way in October.
Perhaps the biggest concern expressed by farmers as the transition to a new administration gets underway is the future of agricultural trade, the survey said.
Forty-two percent of respondents to the November survey said they think it is either “likely” or “very likely” that U.S. agriculture is at risk of a “trade war” that results in a significant decrease in U.S. agricultural exports.
