Fruit inflation subsided in June, but consumers still cost-conscious in produce department

Consumers are increasingly concerned about the impact of inflation on their grocery bill, particularly in the produce department, finds the June edition of the IRI monthly survey of primary shoppers.

“Fresh produce is among the most frequently mentioned items when shoppers reflect on inflation,” said Jonna Parker, team lead fresh at IRI, in the June 210 Analytics report titled, “June Brought a Significant Deceleration in Fruit Inflation.” “Fresh produce has a very high trip frequency, making consumers ultra-aware of the price increases, plus produce has always played a key role in store choice.” 

With concern over inflation reaching its most widespread level yet, at 93% of all grocery shoppers, said Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, more consumers are looking for sales specials, coupons and private or other low-cost brands. Additionally, IRI data reveals that 51% of shoppers are stocking up on certain items more than usual. Of that percentage, 18% are doing this out of fear the items will not be available next time and 26% out of concern that prices may rise further. 

“All this points to great power of relevant, targeted promotions if supply chain conditions allow for it,” Joe Watson, vice president of retail, foodservice and wholesale for the International Fresh Produce Association, said in the report. “It could be a happy hour sale, one-day or three-day promotion, but try to keep fresh produce promotions front and center to retain a greater share of primary shoppers instead of them cherry-picking competitors’ deals and losing a vital part of the total store basket.” 

And with higher gas prices influencing consumers to drive less frequently, “now is the time to remind shoppers how to store fruits and vegetables for optimal shelf life,” Watson added. 

While fresh produce prices were elevated in June as compared with the previous year, inflation in the department was less severe than across the store, IRI reported. 

“Price per unit across all foods and beverages in the IRI-measured, multioutlet stores, including supermarkets, club, mass, supercenter, drug and military, accelerated further to an increase of 12.3% in the four weeks ending June 26, 2022, versus [a] year ago,” reported 210 Analytics. “This is up from 11.9% in the second quarter of the year. June inflation was in the double digits in the center of the store [up 11.3%], as well as in perishables [up 11.8%], and compared to two years ago (June 2019), prices across all foods and beverages were up 24.2%.” 

Fresh produce prices were also up from last year, at 8.0% level on a per-unit basis and 7.0% on a per-pound basis, said Roerink, who added that this is “far below the total store average, as fruit prices dropped considerably in June.” 

Unlike the beginning of the year when inflation was predominantly driven by fruit, it was vegetables that reached 8.2% inflation in June 2022 versus June 2019. In the 52-week view, fresh fruit inflation is still far above average, said Roerink.