If tariffs are imposed on fresh products from Canada and Mexico, there could be long-term effects to consumption and access to fresh fruits and vegetables, says International Fresh Produce Association Vice President of U.S. Government Relations Rebeckah Freeman Adcock.
IFPA has been working with the government and testifying before Congress, urging that if tariffs are imposed, fruits and vegetables should be exempt.
“There is a trade deficit for the U.S. in fresh fruits and vegetables. We know this. We are making a case to the administration that tariffs are not the best opportunity to empower and help the U.S. producer or the U.S. food supply prosper,” Adcock told The Packer. “The U.S. has kind of done this to ourselves. We don’t have a reliable and stable labor supply.”
But Adcock says the federal government can help through the H-2A program, other reforms and by increasing access to water in the Western U.S., a “tremendous, limiting factor for our producers no matter where they are situated.”
“We also have a regulatory environment across the board and inflationary costs, and all these things are within the control of the federal government to affect,” she said. “We really believe you make a better, more embracing, more supportive business climate for food production in the U.S., where food production can be increased, without tariffs.”
Tariff war hits North American fresh produce
Free trade in North America fosters a robust, year-round supply of affordable, fresh food — a system that could be significantly disrupted by tariffs, says Adcock.
“That ability to access fresh food from the whole continent makes for a stable food supply and it means that food is more affordable — especially the freshest products that you want people to fill half their plates with — are affordable and accessible,” said Adcock. Ultimately, “You feed more people better things for less.”
The breadth of the industry, in which IFPA represents upwards of 300 different crops in fresh produce alone, also makes it more difficult to predict how tariffs could impact different commodities and prices at the grocery store.
“We are in uncharted territory,” she said. “We don’t know exactly how much prices will increase, and we don’t exactly know on which products. We think there will be variability. Some products will potentially cost significantly more. Some might be a minor increase, but we do believe that across the board, people will end up having to pay more for fruits and vegetables.”
Uncertain times
IFPA sees the threat of tariffs fueling a sense uncertainty among its members, making planning and forecasting challenging, especially for growers.
“Businesses crave certainty,” said Adcock. “They crave the ability to plan out. Let’s say we’re talking about food production. I’m looking ahead at what I know of the marketplace based on my contracts, consumer sentiment and what all the predictors tell me that I to need to grow.
“Here’s how I’m going to get my financing. Here’s how I’m going to get my inputs. And they plan that out at least a year in advance, sometimes longer depending on the sort of planning that they’re doing,” she continued. “Do I need to expand production? Do I need to contract production? Do I need to rent land? Do I need to buy new equipment?”
Farming and food production have very different business exposures than other industries, she says.
“It’s the same thing at the retail level,” she said. “They’re making their buying decisions months in advance. Not knowing if it’s going to be 10% or 25% tariffs or something else creates uncertainty.”
And the “ultimate uncertainty,” said Adcock, is who’s going to pay for it? “You add that on top of everything else and it is an untenable, unenviable situation.”
Long-term impact
The international fresh produce association anticipates long-term effects to the consumer and the entire fresh produce supply chain, if tariffs are imposed.
“People are very easy to lose in the fresh produce space,” said Adcock. “If they have a bad experience or if they think they’re going to pay too much, they don’t come back quite as quickly as they do for things in the center of the store. That has a consequence, certainly to producers. It has a consequence to the food system. It has a consequence to [consumers’] health.
“And we know that the more stability and affordability that we can provide makes people more likely to pick up our products, makes people more likely to eat things that are healthy, and it certainly makes people — makes our producers and our food system more profitable.”
