True to his campaign promises, President Donald Trump began announcing tariffs shortly after taking office on Jan. 20. Since then, announcements of tariffs have been on then off in a matter of hours, creating what has been called a chaotic landscape of trade wars that is unlikely to end any time soon.
Most recently, Trump threatened Mexico with a 5% tariff if they didn’t start paying down their water debt, and it’s possible growers could get refunds for tariff damages in the future. Billions could be in the balance.
After roughly nine months of real and threatened tariffs, early November 2025 saw the first day of oral arguments before the Supreme Court on whether or not the Trump administration had the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The Packer’s Jennifer Strailey covered what we knew that day. Namely, that the U.S. could owe billions in tariff refunds, including to produce importers.
Getting a refund could be a complicated matter and comes with a ticking clock, however. And, according to Strailey’s sources, the Supreme Court did not give guidance about how specific companies should seek a refund.
The commodities particularly hard hit by tariffs
Produce casualties of the 2025 trade wars could be felt in winter of 2026 because many fruit and vegetable favorites available during winter and early spring depend on imports. These could include exotics such as bananas and mangoes, and seasonal favorites such as berries of all kinds, avocados, broccoli, cucumbers, strawberries, peaches and many more according to reporting by Strailey during the summer.
She talked to Miguel Curiel, the president of Aneberries, Mexico’s National Association of Berry Exporters, during the group’s July trade fair. He said the U.S. consumer currently enjoys berries all year round due, in large part, to trade with Mexico. Tariffs could threaten that, he said, adding that “in the mid to long term, it is the consumer who takes the hit. There’s no doubt about that.”
But it wasn’t just berries at risk. Basically, any fresh produce available en mass in winter would be struck down in the trade war, according to one of Strailey’s reports in August.
“I think there will be a decrease in variety, and I think there will be price increases,” one source said, adding that the Make America Healthy Again movement might help mitigate some of the negative impacts of the trade war on fresh produce and consumers’ pocketbooks.
Things started quickly in 2025 and will continue in 2026
The impact of the tariffs, realized and threatened, was felt in the earliest weeks of 2025.
In the first week of February, Strailey reported from the floor of the Fruit Logistica trade show, having talked to Ron Lemaire, president of the Canadian Produce Marketing Association. He told her Trump’s threatened 25% additional tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada would represent a significant risk to the Canadian produce industry, especially the greenhouse industry.
“Ontario greenhouses ship about 80% to 85% of their product to the U.S., and they’ve integrated their business strategy having Canadian and U.S. operations. Tariff systems in that sector would be dramatically consequential to that industry,” he said.
The message was much the same on the southern border. In late February, Texas produce growers had a front-row seat to the potential impact of Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico. The Packer’s Christina Herrick interviewed Texas International Produce Association’s CEO, Dante Galeazzi, on potential impacts to the state and the country overall.
Most immediately, tariffs on Mexican fresh produce imports would “close the valve of the fresh fruits and vegetables arriving in the country,” particularly in the U.S.’s growing off-season. That’s something that “could not come at a worse time” according to Galeazzi.
As the ongoing trade war updates and tariff news breaks, The Packer will be here covering what growers need to know.
