U.S. net farm income is forecast by the USDA at $116.1 billion in calendar year 2024, a decrease of $39.8 billion (25.5%) compared with 2023.
After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease $43.1 billion (27.1%) in 2024 compared with the previous year, the USDA said.
With the forecast decline, net farm income in 2024 would be 1.7% below its 20-year average (2003-22) of $118.2 billion and 40.9% below the record high in 2022 in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Cash receipts from the sale of agricultural commodities are forecast to decrease by $21.2 billion (4.2% in nominal terms) from 2023 to $485.5 billion in 2024.
Total crop receipts are expected to decrease by $16.7 billion (6.3%) from 2023, led by lower receipts for corn and soybeans. Total animal and animal product receipts are expected to decrease by $4.6 billion (1.9%) following declines in receipts for eggs, turkeys, cattle/calves and milk.
Lower forecasted income also is attributed to government payments and higher production expenses.
Livestock/poultry purchases and labor expenses are expected to see the largest increases in 2024 relative to 2023.
Average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to decrease 27.2% from 2023 to $72,000 per farm in 2024, the USDA said.
The USDA said all U.S. farm regions are expected to see average net cash farm income fall in 2024, with farm businesses located in the Northern Great Plains region expected to see the largest decline.
Farm sector debt is forecast to increase 5.2% ($27 billion) to $547.6 billion in 2024. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to worsen slightly from 12.73% in 2023 to 12.78% in 2024. Working capital is forecast to fall 16.6% in 2024 relative to 2023.
