AI tool assesses disruption risk for commodities

Helios Artificial Intelligence says CommodiTrack aids agrifood supply chain resiliency and provides decision-makers with technology that predicts the price and availability of commodities.

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Helios Artificial Intelligence Inc., a company that predicts price and availability of agricultural commodities, has launched CommodiTrack, an AI platform that gives agrifood buyers and traders access to the climate risks impacting commodities.

CommodiTrack is a dynamic, interactive platform that allows users to track, forecast and strategize to improve supply chain resiliency, the company said. The platform uses Helios’ proprietary climate risk data set, which includes over 500 billion unique risk signals generated by custom machine learning models specific to each of the 50-plus crops being tracked, rather than generic weather information, giving users an advantage to predict where and why disruptions are likely to occur, according to a news release.

“The launch of CommodiTrack is our response to the urgent needs of our customers in the face of increasing climate disruptions. Agrifood buyers and traders have never seen this level of climate and price volatility before, and the tools they’ve historically relied on are no longer working,” said Helios co-founder and CEO Francisco Martin-Rayo. “With this new platform, we are democratizing access to the world’s best climate risk information so our customers can quickly identify and react to the climate risks impacting their supply chains.”

The company said CommodiTrack transforms how users interact with and interpret agricultural commodity data, integrating critical elements such as climate risk factors, price forecasting, demand and supply signals and more — data that was previously scattered or inaccessible — all on one platform, providing not only comprehensive data but also actionable insights.

Helios said one of CommodiTrack’s unique features is the Weighted Average Risk Ratio, or WA%R, a proprietary metric that quantifies climate risk by assessing the number of high-risk locations within the global market. The higher the WA%R, the greater the likelihood of a price shift for the commodity in question. For example, Helios’ climate risk platform saw a dramatic increase in the WA%R for cocoa in December 2023, going from single digits to above 30%, which gave a strong “buy” signal weeks before the unprecedented price increase took place, according to the release.

The company said the CommodiTrack dashboard also offers a range of features tailored to meet the needs of commodity traders, procurement leaders and market analysts:

  • Climate risk analysis — One of the most powerful features of CommodiTrack, it offers a deep dive into climate data, providing insights into the top 10 producing countries and the producing regions within those countries.
  • Price forecasting and trading signals — It offers tools for tracking and forecasting commodity prices by integrating Helio’s proprietary climate risk data and algorithms with pricing information.
  • Trade insights — It provides historical data on the top 10 exporters and importers over the past decade, as well as news updates on import and export tariffs, bans and other trade restrictions.
  • Climate change trends — It offers a macro view of how climate risk is evolving, comparing current growing seasons with historical data.
  • Supply chain visibility — This section provides detailed information on the top 10 producers of each commodity over the past 10 years and long-term trend analysis of production, yield, beginning stocks and harvest.
  • Expansive news coverage — Sourcing from over 250,000 news outlets globally, this section provides real-time news on trade, supply and demand, pricing and climate events that could affect the commodities of interest.

The company said the initial release of CommodiTrack is focused on the top eight globally traded commodities: corn, wheat, cocoa, coffee, rice, sugarcane, soybeans and palm oil. In the coming weeks, the platform will expand to include similar insights into 50-plus commodities, including all major fruits and vegetables, the release said.

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