Things look good this season in the Sunshine State for tomato growers, says Robert Guenther, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange and manager of the Florida Tomato Committee.
Help from weather conditions and regulatory changes all bode well for this year’s crop and for future domestic demand, he says.
Guenther sat down with The Packer to discuss this season’s outlook and the immediate impacts of the end of the U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement.
How is this year’s tomato crop looking so far compared to last season?
Guenther: We have had a strong start to the season. Unlike last year, having to deal with two hurricanes back to back, this year we have seen exceptional growing conditions for tomatoes here in Florida (knock on wood), which is producing some of the best quality tomatoes growers have seen in years.
Have there been acreage or planting decision adjustments for this season? If so, what drove that choice?
I think it is too early to tell. However, we have seen several new packing and shipping operations sign up for this year’s marketing season (October to June) through the federal marketing order.
Do you see the current policy environment encouraging growers to reinvest or expand acreage?
On the domestic side, we are in a government shutdown, so it’s hard to gauge until they reopen the government and Congress gets back to work. I do know that Florida tomatoes are very aligned with other specialty organizations supporting the renewal of the farm bill. If that occurs, I see some important opportunities with new investments in marketing, promotion and research programs.
I would also add that the upcoming negotiations on the USMCA (U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement) between the United States, Canada and Mexico will be an important policy area that tomato growers across the country will be engaged in to ensure fair market conditions are implemented as well as continuing each country’s right to address unfair trade practices.
What are the biggest production challenges this year in Florida?
Well, that never changes: Weather and cost of production, which is mostly driven by labor cost. We have had some important regulatory victories in the last several months to help us with labor challenges and, most importantly, stabilizing the H-2A program. More can be done, but it’s a good start as we begin our growing season and our growers are signing up guest workers for their season.
Are you seeing any noticeable changes in competition or buyer interest in Florida tomatoes since the termination [of the Tomato Suspension Agreement]?
I think those observations will come later in the season, say January through the spring. At the moment with the season just starting, growers are working hard to fulfill their obligations with customers.
Have wholesale or fob prices improved enough to offset higher input costs?
Ask me that at the end of the season! But we are watching this very closely to better understand how market prices (both grower returns and retail prices) react to the new policy environment that are in place this season. Remember, the United States and Mexico are implementing new requirements on how tomatoes will flow through the U.S. market.
What does the business outlook look like for Florida tomato growers this year and looking ahead to 2026?
I am very bullish about the outlook for this year and into 2026.
First, if we can get a strong farm bill, USMCA can be negotiated in an appropriate manner; we see additional regulatory relief, which can help with cost of production impacts, and anti-dumping requirements stabilize the domestic market, the future looks bright for the Florida tomato industry.
Second, we have tremendously good weather to kick off the season.
What does a profitable price point look like for Florida growers now, compared to before the agreement ended?
That depends on input cost, weather, the economy and consumer demand. Right now, it would be difficult to point to an actual price point. Quite frankly, the tomato market can move up and down very quickly because of and of these factors or a combination of them.
What would a good year look like to you under these new trade conditions?
Less volatility in the market, including a reduction in import surges, which is what we saw last season and improved returns for growers.
How do you think Florida’s winter crop window positions Florida tomatoes compared to imports under the new trade conditions?
Well, I can say we feel we are positioned much better than we have been in the past 30 years. Again, the new trade conditions are in place to build a strong and stable market and supply of fresh tomatoes for the U.S. consumer.
Has the end of the suspension agreement changed the way Florida tomato growers plan or market their crops?
We will know much more at the end of this season and beyond, but we are focusing a lot of attention on this space as the new policies come into full effect.
What’s your sense of how Florida’s tomato future looks five years out?
I hope that consumer demand increases, new varieties are introduced that sync with consumer preferences, additional market expansion, and a strong and unified domestic tomato industry.
