USDA: Ag exports to sag, imports to grow slowly in next 10 years
USDA trade projections through 2032 call for U.S. ag exports to decline at an annual rate averaging 0.7% per year, ending at $182.2 billion in 2032.
That is 8% lower than U.S. ag exports of $196.4 billion in 2022.
All of that decline is projected to occur from 2022 to 2026 where agricultural exports are predicted to fall 3.8% annually, the USDA said in its annual outlook report. By 2027, the USDA said export growth is forecast to resume at an annual rate of 1.9% through 2032.
While accounting for a relatively small slice of overall U.S. ag exports, fresh fruit and vegetable export projections also reflect diminished expectations, falling from $7 billion in 2022 to $6.6 billion in 2032.
The USDA said a large source of the export weakness during 2022-26 is associated with grains and feeds, which are forecast to decline from $48 billion in 2022 to a low of $34 billion in 2027.
Likewise, exports of oilseeds and products decline from $45.6 billion in 2022 to a low of $35.2 billion in 2027. These declines are partly due to the record exports of those commodities to China and Mexico in 2022, and as reduced export volumes are expected with lower commodity prices also expected to follow.
“As the U.S. and global economies adjust after the fluctuations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine, gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to slow over the next few years,” the report said. “Inflation is a significant concern as countries seek limit it by tightening monetary policy potentially at the expense of national economic activity. This has the potential to further depress demand, especially for some of the more elastic (price sensitive) agricultural commodities.”
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Modest import growth
USDA projections call for total U.S. agricultural imports to increase by an average annual rate of 0.3% over the next decade, rising 3% from $194 billion in 2022 to $200 billion.
Shadowing exports, the downturn in imports starts in 2024, followed by a return to growth after reaching a low of $181.6 billion in 2026. Between 2027 and 2032, the annual growth rate of imports is estimated at 2%, the USDA said.
U.S. imports of fresh fruits and vegetables are projected to grow from $29 billion in 2022 to $34.8 billion in 2032, a gain of 20% over 10 years.
In comparison with other U.S. ag products, U.S. imports of fresh fruits and vegetables will grow at a relatively strong annual rate of 2% over the forecast period, the USDA said.
The report said key commodities among U.S. fresh produce imports include avocados, berries and citrus from countries such as Mexico, Chile and Peru.
“This growth has largely been driven by desire for year-round supply, changing consumer preferences, and increasingly competitive foreign production,” the report said.
The report said the negative trade balance for fresh produce persists “partly due to the ongoing trend towards importing horticultural products to satisfy increasing demand for year-round produce from increasingly competitive sources."
