U.S. apple and pear exports will slow in 2024-25, but U.S. grape exports are projected higher, according to a new USDA report.
U.S. fresh pear exports are forecast to fall to the lowest level since the 1980s in marketing year 2024-25 (July 2024 to June 2025), as production is expected to fall more than 20%.
Due to the lack of exportable supplies, U.S. fresh pear exports are forecast down 25,000 metric tons to 85,000, the lowest level since 1988-89, the report said.
Pared pears
The report said U.S. pear production is forecast at 470,000 tons, the lowest volume since 1967-68, as all three producing states experienced year-over-year declines.
Limited by the historically low harvest, U.S. fresh pear exports are forecast at 85,000 tons, less than half the volume exported a decade ago, and at nearly the same level as fresh pear imports, according to the report.
Output in Washington, normally the top pear-producing state, is projected to drop more than 30% and be a smaller harvest than Oregon. A freeze in January damaged pear trees and continued cold weather during the spring blossom further limited volumes, the report said. This adverse weather compounds a decade-long trend of falling acreage in Washington.
Oregon production is forecast down 15% and California down 17%, also due to damaging weather.
In the first three months of the marketing year, U.S. pear exports fell by more than 40% compared to the same period in 2023-24, the report said.
Typically, 90% of U.S. pear exports are destined for Canada and Mexico as pears are delicate and difficult to transport long distances. The U.S. is the top exporter to these markets with approximately 90% market share in Mexico and 50% in Canada.
While the U.S. may lose some market share in 2024-25, it is unclear if other suppliers will be able to fill the gap. U.S. imports are projected to rise only slightly to 80,000 tons despite domestic supplies dropping sharply as other countries are not forecast to significantly increase exports.
Apple adjustment
World apple production for 2024-25 is forecast to drop nearly 350,000 tons to 84 million metric tons as losses in the European Union, U.S., Turkey and Russia more than offset an increase in China production, according to the report.
Exports are projected down less than 100,000 tons to 6.1 million tons on lower shipments from the U.S. and Iran more than offsetting increased exports from China.
U.S. production is projected down nearly 150,000 tons to 4.9 million tons after last year’s bumper crop but remains above the 10-year average. U.S. exports are forecast down nearly 10% to 820,000 tons on lower production. Imports are forecast up slightly to 90,000 tons, the second-lowest level in 40 years, as the volume of apples in cold storage remains elevated compared to normal levels, the release said.
Greater grapes
U.S. table grape production is projected up nearly 200,000 tons to 845,000 tons as California makes a full recovery from last year’s damage from Hurricane Hilary, the report said.
Higher supplies are expected to push exports up 35% to 245,000 tons, the report said.
Imports are forecast down more than 30,000 tons to 760,000 tons on greater domestic production, but the U.S. is expected to remain the top table grape importer. In July 2024, USDA approved three regions in Chile to export table grapes to the U.S. via a systems approach instead of methyl bromide fumigation, which should allow higher-quality grapes to reach the U.S. market, according to the report.
The USDA said Peruvian grape production is forecast up 15,000 tons to 790,000 tons on recovered production in northern Peru after El Niño conditions limited the industry’s growth last year. Higher supplies are expected to drive exports up nearly 20% to 620,000 tons, nearly matching the record level seen in 2022-23.
Chile production is forecast up 45,000 tons to 728,000 tons as higher yields from favorable weather more than offset declining area planted. Exports are expected to rise by the same volume to reach 570,000 tons.
